Xiaohong Chen

Ali Mehrabian, Ehsan Hoseinzade, Mahdi Mazloum et al.

Stock markets play an important role in the global economy, where accurate stock price predictions can lead to significant financial returns. While existing transformer-based models have outperformed long short-term memory networks and convolutional neural networks in financial time series prediction, their high computational complexity and memory requirements limit their practicality for real-time trading and long-sequence data processing. To address these challenges, we propose SAMBA, an innovative framework for stock return prediction that builds on the Mamba architecture and integrates graph neural networks. SAMBA achieves near-linear computational complexity by utilizing a bidirectional Mamba block to capture long-term dependencies in historical price data and employing adaptive graph convolution to model dependencies between daily stock features. Our experimental results demonstrate that SAMBA significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baseline models in prediction accuracy, maintaining low computational complexity. The code and datasets are available at github.com/Ali-Meh619/SAMBA.

Xiaohong Chen, Sokbae Lee, Yuan Liao et al.

We introduce a new class of algorithms, Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), for estimation and inference on (overidentified) moment restriction models. Our SGMM is a novel stochastic approximation alternative to the popular Hansen (1982) (offline) GMM, and offers fast and scalable implementation with the ability to handle streaming datasets in real time. We establish the almost sure convergence, and the (functional) central limit theorem for the inefficient online 2SLS and the efficient SGMM. Moreover, we propose online versions of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman and Sargan-Hansen tests that can be seamlessly integrated within the SGMM framework. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that as the sample size increases, the SGMM matches the standard (offline) GMM in terms of estimation accuracy and gains over computational efficiency, indicating its practical value for both large-scale and online datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by a proof of concept using two well known empirical examples with large sample sizes.

Xiaohong Chen, Yuan Liao, Weichen Wang

General nonlinear sieve learnings are classes of nonlinear sieves that can approximate nonlinear functions of high dimensional variables much more flexibly than various linear sieves (or series). This paper considers general nonlinear sieve quasi-likelihood ratio (GN-QLR) based inference on expectation functionals of time series data, where the functionals of interest are based on some nonparametric function that satisfy conditional moment restrictions and are learned using multilayer neural networks. While the asymptotic normality of the estimated functionals depends on some unknown Riesz representer of the functional space, we show that the optimally weighted GN-QLR statistic is asymptotically Chi-square distributed, regardless whether the expectation functional is regular (root-$n$ estimable) or not. This holds when the data are weakly dependent beta-mixing condition. We apply our method to the off-policy evaluation in reinforcement learning, by formulating the Bellman equation into the conditional moment restriction framework, so that we can make inference about the state-specific value functional using the proposed GN-QLR method with time series data. In addition, estimating the averaged partial means and averaged partial derivatives of nonparametric instrumental variables and quantile IV models are also presented as leading examples. Finally, a Monte Carlo study shows the finite sample performance of the procedure

Xiaohong Chen, Zhengling Qi, Runzhe Wan

Batch reinforcement learning (RL) aims at leveraging pre-collected data to find an optimal policy that maximizes the expected total rewards in a dynamic environment. The existing methods require absolutely continuous assumption (e.g., there do not exist non-overlapping regions) on the distribution induced by target policies with respect to the data distribution over either the state or action or both. We propose a new batch RL algorithm that allows for singularity for both state and action spaces (e.g., existence of non-overlapping regions between offline data distribution and the distribution induced by the target policies) in the setting of an infinite-horizon Markov decision process with continuous states and actions. We call our algorithm STEEL: SingulariTy-awarE rEinforcement Learning. Our algorithm is motivated by a new error analysis on off-policy evaluation, where we use maximum mean discrepancy, together with distributionally robust optimization, to characterize the error of off-policy evaluation caused by the possible singularity and to enable model extrapolation. By leveraging the idea of pessimism and under some technical conditions, we derive a first finite-sample regret guarantee for our proposed algorithm under singularity. Compared with existing algorithms,by requiring only minimal data-coverage assumption, STEEL improves the applicability and robustness of batch RL. In addition, a two-step adaptive STEEL, which is nearly tuning-free, is proposed. Extensive simulation studies and one (semi)-real experiment on personalized pricing demonstrate the superior performance of our methods in dealing with possible singularity in batch RL.

Dongming Jin, Zhi Jin, Yaotian Yang et al.

Requirements elicitation interviews are crucial and time-consuming in requirements engineering, but heavily rely on the experience of requirements analysts. Although recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have created new opportunities to automate this process, existing approaches rely solely on LLMs for free-form chat without taking into account the interview and development experience. That leads to the omission of implicit requirements and redundant questions. Practically, experienced analysts implicitly follow a structured cognitive framework when conducting requirements elicitation. Inspired by this observation, this paper proposes an interview agent named OntoAgent for the elicitation of requirements guided by an experience ontology. OntoAgent automatically analyzes domain-specific requirements descriptions to construct an experience ontology, which organizes requirements concerns into an ontology to support systematic and explainable interviews. During the interview, OntoAgent first performs four operations (i.e., ParseUser, ScoreOnto, ReRankOnto, GatePrune) guided by the ontology to identify the relevant requirement concerns. The selected concern is then combined with the current dialogue context to generate the elicitation question. To validate OntoAgent, we conduct comprehensive quantitative experiments using the widely adopted website application domain. The results show that OntoAgent significantly outperforms existing baselines in both elicitation effectiveness and questioning efficiency, achieving a 33% improvement in IRE and a 21% improvement in TKQR. Ablation studies further validate the contribution of each key design component. In addition, a qualitative user study demonstrates its practical advantages in real-world scenarios. We believe that OntoAgent can also be extended to requirements interview tasks in other domains.

Xiaohong Chen, Markus Reiss

In this paper, we clarify the relations between the existing sets of regularity conditions for convergence rates of nonparametric indirect regression (NPIR) and nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) regression models. We establish minimax risk lower bounds in mean integrated squared error loss for the NPIR and the NPIV models under two basic regularity conditions that allow for both mildly ill-posed and severely ill-posed cases. We show that both a simple projection estimator for the NPIR model, and a sieve minimum distance estimator for the NPIV model, can achieve the minimax risk lower bounds, and are rate-optimal uniformly over a large class of structure functions, allowing for mildly ill-posed and severely ill-posed cases.

Yue Fang, Zhi Jin, Jie An et al.

Signal Temporal Logic (STL) is a formal language for specifying real-time behaviors of cyber-physical systems (CPS). Automatically transforming natural language requirements into STL specifications has received growing attention. Recent efforts leveraging large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance, but some natural language requirements in practice contain vague or ambiguous information, which remains challenging for LLMs to handle. To address these challenges, we propose ClarifySTL, an interactive LLM-agent framework that enhances STL transformation through requirements clarification. ClarifySTL first detects vague expressions that indicate underspecified information in a requirement. If any vagueness is detected, it generates targeted clarification queries to guide users in supplementing the requirement until all necessary details are provided. Subsequently, if ClarifySTL detects ambiguities, it formulates focused ambiguity clarification queries and updates the requirements based on user feedback until all ambiguities are resolved. Finally, the requirements with vagueness and ambiguity clarified are transformed into STL specifications using LLMs. This interactive framework ensures that the resulting STL formulas faithfully capture user intent while reducing the burden on the user. We evaluate ClarifySTL on the representative benchmarks DeepSTL and STL-DivEn, as well as our newly introduced AmbiEval benchmark, which is specifically designed to assess the performance of the agents in handling vagueness and ambiguity, including both detection and query generation. The experimental results show that ClarifySTL is effective.

Heng Zhang, Xiaohong Chen

With the advancement of the data acquisition techniques, multi-view learning has become a hot topic. Some multi-view learning methods assume that the multi-view data is complete, which means that all instances are present, but this too ideal. Certain tensor-based methods for handing incomplete multi-view data have emerged and have achieved better result. However, there are still some problems, such as use of traditional tensor norm which makes the computation high and is not able to handle out-of-sample. To solve these two problems, we proposed a new incomplete multi view learning method. A new tensor norm is defined to implement graph tensor data recover. The recovered graphs are then regularized to a consistent low-dimensional representation of the samples. In addition, adaptive weights are equipped to each view to adjust the importance of different views. Compared with the existing methods, our method nor only explores the consistency among views, but also obtains the low-dimensional representation of the new samples by using the learned projection matrix. An efficient algorithm based on inexact augmented Lagrange multiplier (ALM) method are designed to solve the model and convergence is proved. Experimental results on four datasets show the effectiveness of our method.

Yue Fang, Zhi Jin, Jie An et al.

Temporal Logic (TL), especially Signal Temporal Logic (STL), enables precise formal specification, making it widely used in cyber-physical systems such as autonomous driving and robotics. Automatically transforming NL into STL is an attractive approach to overcome the limitations of manual transformation, which is time-consuming and error-prone. However, due to the lack of datasets, automatic transformation currently faces significant challenges and has not been fully explored. In this paper, we propose an NL-STL dataset named STL-Diversity-Enhanced (STL-DivEn), which comprises 16,000 samples enriched with diverse patterns. To develop the dataset, we first manually create a small-scale seed set of NL-STL pairs. Next, representative examples are identified through clustering and used to guide large language models (LLMs) in generating additional NL-STL pairs. Finally, diversity and accuracy are ensured through rigorous rule-based filters and human validation. Furthermore, we introduce the Knowledge-Guided STL Transformation (KGST) framework, a novel approach for transforming natural language into STL, involving a generate-then-refine process based on external knowledge. Statistical analysis shows that the STL-DivEn dataset exhibits more diversity than the existing NL-STL dataset. Moreover, both metric-based and human evaluations indicate that our KGST approach outperforms baseline models in transformation accuracy on STL-DivEn and DeepSTL datasets.

Zhiyi Xue, Xiaohong Chen, Min Zhang

Compliance testing in highly regulated domains is crucial but largely manual, requiring domain experts to translate complex regulations into executable test cases. While large language models (LLMs) show promise for automation, their susceptibility to hallucinations limits reliable application. Existing hybrid approaches mitigate this issue by constraining LLMs with formal models, but still rely on costly manual modeling. To solve this problem, this paper proposes RAFT, a framework for requirements auto-formalization and compliance test generation via explicating tacit regulatory knowledge from multiple LLMs. RAFT employs an Adaptive Purification-Aggregation strategy to explicate tacit regulatory knowledge from multiple LLMs and integrate it into three artifacts: a domain meta-model, a formal requirements representation, and testability constraints. These artifacts are then dynamically injected into prompts to guide high-precision requirement formalization and automated test generation. Experiments across financial, automotive, and power domains show that RAFT achieves expert-level performance, substantially outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods while reducing overall generation and review time.

Zhongren Chen, Siyu Chen, Zhengling Qi et al.

We study quantile-optimal policy learning where the goal is to find a policy whose reward distribution has the largest $α$-quantile for some $α\in (0, 1)$. We focus on the offline setting whose generating process involves unobserved confounders. Such a problem suffers from three main challenges: (i) nonlinearity of the quantile objective as a functional of the reward distribution, (ii) unobserved confounding issue, and (iii) insufficient coverage of the offline dataset. To address these challenges, we propose a suite of causal-assisted policy learning methods that provably enjoy strong theoretical guarantees under mild conditions. In particular, to address (i) and (ii), using causal inference tools such as instrumental variables and negative controls, we propose to estimate the quantile objectives by solving nonlinear functional integral equations. Then we adopt a minimax estimation approach with nonparametric models to solve these integral equations, and propose to construct conservative policy estimates that address (iii). The final policy is the one that maximizes these pessimistic estimates. In addition, we propose a novel regularized policy learning method that is more amenable to computation. Finally, we prove that the policies learned by these methods are $\tilde{\mathscr{O}}(n^{-1/2})$ quantile-optimal under a mild coverage assumption on the offline dataset. Here, $\tilde{\mathscr{O}}(\cdot)$ omits poly-logarithmic factors. To the best of our knowledge, we propose the first sample-efficient policy learning algorithms for estimating the quantile-optimal policy when there exist unmeasured confounding.

Yuchen Zhu, Yufeng Zhang, Zhaoran Wang et al.

This paper studies minimax optimization problems defined over infinite-dimensional function classes of overparameterized two-layer neural networks. In particular, we consider the minimax optimization problem stemming from estimating linear functional equations defined by conditional expectations, where the objective functions are quadratic in the functional spaces. We address (i) the convergence of the stochastic gradient descent-ascent algorithm and (ii) the representation learning of the neural networks. We establish convergence under the mean-field regime by considering the continuous-time and infinite-width limit of the optimization dynamics. Under this regime, the stochastic gradient descent-ascent corresponds to a Wasserstein gradient flow over the space of probability measures defined over the space of neural network parameters. We prove that the Wasserstein gradient flow converges globally to a stationary point of the minimax objective at a $O(T^{-1} + α^{-1})$ sublinear rate, and additionally finds the solution to the functional equation when the regularizer of the minimax objective is strongly convex. Here $T$ denotes the time and $α$ is a scaling parameter of the neural networks. In terms of representation learning, our results show that the feature representation induced by the neural networks is allowed to deviate from the initial one by the magnitude of $O(α^{-1})$, measured in terms of the Wasserstein distance. Finally, we apply our general results to concrete examples including policy evaluation, nonparametric instrumental variable regression, asset pricing, and adversarial Riesz representer estimation.

Xiaohong Chen, Zhengling Qi

We study the off-policy evaluation (OPE) problem in an infinite-horizon Markov decision process with continuous states and actions. We recast the $Q$-function estimation into a special form of the nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) estimation problem. We first show that under one mild condition the NPIV formulation of $Q$-function estimation is well-posed in the sense of $L^2$-measure of ill-posedness with respect to the data generating distribution, bypassing a strong assumption on the discount factor $γ$ imposed in the recent literature for obtaining the $L^2$ convergence rates of various $Q$-function estimators. Thanks to this new well-posed property, we derive the first minimax lower bounds for the convergence rates of nonparametric estimation of $Q$-function and its derivatives in both sup-norm and $L^2$-norm, which are shown to be the same as those for the classical nonparametric regression (Stone, 1982). We then propose a sieve two-stage least squares estimator and establish its rate-optimality in both norms under some mild conditions. Our general results on the well-posedness and the minimax lower bounds are of independent interest to study not only other nonparametric estimators for $Q$-function but also efficient estimation on the value of any target policy in off-policy settings.

Jiafeng Chen, Xiaohong Chen, Elie Tamer

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) can be viewed as nonlinear sieves that can approximate complex functions of high dimensional variables more effectively than linear sieves. We investigate the performance of various ANNs in nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) models of moderately high dimensional covariates that are relevant to empirical economics. We present two efficient procedures for estimation and inference on a weighted average derivative (WAD): an orthogonalized plug-in with optimally-weighted sieve minimum distance (OP-OSMD) procedure and a sieve efficient score (ES) procedure. Both estimators for WAD use ANN sieves to approximate the unknown NPIV function and are root-n asymptotically normal and first-order equivalent. We provide a detailed practitioner's recipe for implementing both efficient procedures. We compare their finite-sample performances in various simulation designs that involve smooth NPIV function of up to 13 continuous covariates, different nonlinearities and covariate correlations. Some Monte Carlo findings include: 1) tuning and optimization are more delicate in ANN estimation; 2) given proper tuning, both ANN estimators with various architectures can perform well; 3) easier to tune ANN OP-OSMD estimators than ANN ES estimators; 4) stable inferences are more difficult to achieve with ANN (than spline) estimators; 5) there are gaps between current implementations and approximation theories. Finally, we apply ANN NPIV to estimate average partial derivatives in two empirical demand examples with multivariate covariates.

Xiaohong Chen, Timothy Christensen, Sid Kankanala

We introduce two data-driven procedures for optimal estimation and inference in nonparametric models using instrumental variables. The first is a data-driven choice of sieve dimension for a popular class of sieve two-stage least squares estimators. When implemented with this choice, estimators of both the structural function $h_0$ and its derivatives (such as elasticities) converge at the fastest possible (i.e., minimax) rates in sup-norm. The second is for constructing uniform confidence bands (UCBs) for $h_0$ and its derivatives. Our UCBs guarantee coverage over a generic class of data-generating processes and contract at the minimax rate, possibly up to a logarithmic factor. As such, our UCBs are asymptotically more efficient than UCBs based on the usual approach of undersmoothing. As an application, we estimate the elasticity of the intensive margin of firm exports in a monopolistic competition model of international trade. Simulations illustrate the good performance of our procedures in empirically calibrated designs. Our results provide evidence against common parameterizations of the distribution of unobserved firm heterogeneity.

Christoph Breunig, Xiaohong Chen

This paper considers adaptive, minimax estimation of a quadratic functional in a nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) model, which is an important problem in optimal estimation of a nonlinear functional of an ill-posed inverse regression with an unknown operator. We first show that a leave-one-out, sieve NPIV estimator of the quadratic functional can attain a convergence rate that coincides with the lower bound previously derived in Chen and Christensen [2018]. The minimax rate is achieved by the optimal choice of the sieve dimension (a key tuning parameter) that depends on the smoothness of the NPIV function and the degree of ill-posedness, both are unknown in practice. We next propose a Lepski-type data-driven choice of the key sieve dimension adaptive to the unknown NPIV model features. The adaptive estimator of the quadratic functional is shown to attain the minimax optimal rate in the severely ill-posed case and in the regular mildly ill-posed case, but up to a multiplicative $\sqrt{\log n}$ factor in the irregular mildly ill-posed case.

Xiaohong Chen, Ying Liu, Shujie Ma et al.

Semiparametric efficient estimation of various multi-valued causal effects, including quantile treatment effects, is important in economic, biomedical, and other social sciences. Under the unconfoundedness condition, adjustment for confounders requires estimating the nuisance functions relating outcome or treatment to confounders nonparametrically. This paper considers a generalized optimization framework for efficient estimation of general treatment effects using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to approximate the unknown nuisance function of growing-dimensional confounders. We establish a new approximation error bound for the ANNs to the nuisance function belonging to a mixed smoothness class without a known sparsity structure. We show that the ANNs can alleviate the "curse of dimensionality" under this circumstance. We establish the root-$n$ consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed general treatment effects estimators, and apply a weighted bootstrap procedure for conducting inference. The proposed methods are illustrated via simulation studies and a real data application.

Qian Ye, Xiaohong Chen, Onur Kalan et al.

This study explores how people view and respond to the proposals of NYC congestion pricing evolve in time. To understand these responses, Twitter data is collected and analyzed. Critical groups in the recurrent process are detected by statistically analyzing the active users and the most mentioned accounts, and the trends of people's attitudes and concerns over the years are identified with text mining and hybrid Nature Language Processing techniques, including LDA topic modeling and LSTM sentiment classification. The result shows that multiple interest groups were involved and played crucial roles during the proposal, especially Mayor and Governor, MTA, and outer-borough representatives. The public shifted the concern of focus from the plan details to a wider city's sustainability and fairness. Furthermore, the plan's approval relies on several elements, the joint agreement reached in the political process, strong motivation in the real-world, the scheme based on balancing multiple interests, and groups' awareness of tolling's benefits and necessity.

Christoph Breunig, Xiaohong Chen

We propose a new adaptive hypothesis test for inequality (e.g., monotonicity, convexity) and equality (e.g., parametric, semiparametric) restrictions on a structural function in a nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) model. Our test statistic is based on a modified leave-one-out sample analog of a quadratic distance between the restricted and unrestricted sieve two-stage least squares estimators. We provide computationally simple, data-driven choices of sieve tuning parameters and Bonferroni adjusted chi-squared critical values. Our test adapts to the unknown smoothness of alternative functions in the presence of unknown degree of endogeneity and unknown strength of the instruments. It attains the adaptive minimax rate of testing in $L^{2}$. That is, the sum of the supremum of type I error over the composite null and the supremum of type II error over nonparametric alternative models cannot be minimized by any other tests for NPIV models of unknown regularities. Confidence sets in $L^{2}$ are obtained by inverting the adaptive test. Simulations confirm that, across different strength of instruments and sample sizes, our adaptive test controls size and its finite-sample power greatly exceeds existing non-adaptive tests for monotonicity and parametric restrictions in NPIV models. Empirical applications to test for shape restrictions of differentiated products demand and of Engel curves are presented.

Yilong Yang, Xiaoshan Li, Zhiming Liu et al.

Prototyping is an effective and efficient way of requirement validation to avoid introducing errors in the early stage of software development. However, manually developing a prototype of a software system requires additional efforts, which would increase the overall cost of software development. In this paper, we present an approach with a developed tool to automatic generation of prototypes from formal requirements models. A requirements model consists of a use case diagram, a conceptual class diagram, use case definitions specified by system sequence diagrams and the contracts of their system operations. We propose a method to decompose a contract into executable parts and non-executable parts. A set of transformation rules is given to decompose the executable part into pre-implemented primitive operations. A non-executable part is usually realized by significant algorithms such as sorting a list, finding the shortest path or domain-specific computation. It can be implemented manually or by using existing code. A CASE tool is developed that provides an interface for developers to develop a program for each non-executable part of a contract, and automatically transforms the executables into sequences of pre-implemented primitive operations. We have conducted four cases studies with over 50 use cases. The experimental result shows that the 93.65% of requirement specifications are executable, and only 6.35% are non-executable such as sorting and event-call, which can be implemented by developers manually or invoking the APIs of advanced algorithms in Java library. The one second generated the prototype of a case study requires approximate nine hours manual implementation by a skilled programmer. Overall, the result is satisfiable, and the proposed approach with the developed CASE tool can be applied to the software industry for requirements engineering.

Pingfan Kong, Yi Li, Xiaohong Chen et al.

Hybrid systems exhibit both continuous and discrete behavior. Analyzing hybrid systems is known to be hard. Inspired by the idea of concolic testing (of programs), we investigate whether we can combine random sampling and symbolic execution in order to effectively verify hybrid systems. We identify a sufficient condition under which such a combination is more effective than random sampling. Furthermore, we analyze different strategies of combining random sampling and symbolic execution and propose an algorithm which allows us to dynamically switch between them so as to reduce the overall cost. Our method has been implemented as a web-based checker named HyChecker. HyChecker has been evaluated with benchmark hybrid systems and a water treatment system in order to test its effectiveness.