Jonathan K. Pritchard

Romain Lopez, Nataša Tagasovska, Stephen Ra et al. · berkeley

Latent variable models such as the Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) have become a go-to tool for analyzing biological data, especially in the field of single-cell genomics. One remaining challenge is the interpretability of latent variables as biological processes that define a cell's identity. Outside of biological applications, this problem is commonly referred to as learning disentangled representations. Although several disentanglement-promoting variants of the VAE were introduced, and applied to single-cell genomics data, this task has been shown to be infeasible from independent and identically distributed measurements, without additional structure. Instead, recent methods propose to leverage non-stationary data, as well as the sparse mechanism shift assumption in order to learn disentangled representations with a causal semantic. Here, we extend the application of these methodological advances to the analysis of single-cell genomics data with genetic or chemical perturbations. More precisely, we propose a deep generative model of single-cell gene expression data for which each perturbation is treated as a stochastic intervention targeting an unknown, but sparse, subset of latent variables. We benchmark these methods on simulated single-cell data to evaluate their performance at latent units recovery, causal target identification and out-of-domain generalization. Finally, we apply those approaches to two real-world large-scale gene perturbation data sets and find that models that exploit the sparse mechanism shift hypothesis surpass contemporary methods on a transfer learning task. We implement our new model and benchmarks using the scvi-tools library, and release it as open-source software at https://github.com/Genentech/sVAE.

Romain Lopez, Jan-Christian Hütter, Jonathan K. Pritchard et al. · berkeley

A common theme in causal inference is learning causal relationships between observed variables, also known as causal discovery. This is usually a daunting task, given the large number of candidate causal graphs and the combinatorial nature of the search space. Perhaps for this reason, most research has so far focused on relatively small causal graphs, with up to hundreds of nodes. However, recent advances in fields like biology enable generating experimental data sets with thousands of interventions followed by rich profiling of thousands of variables, raising the opportunity and urgent need for large causal graph models. Here, we introduce the notion of factor directed acyclic graphs (f-DAGs) as a way to restrict the search space to non-linear low-rank causal interaction models. Combining this novel structural assumption with recent advances that bridge the gap between causal discovery and continuous optimization, we achieve causal discovery on thousands of variables. Additionally, as a model for the impact of statistical noise on this estimation procedure, we study a model of edge perturbations of the f-DAG skeleton based on random graphs and quantify the effect of such perturbations on the f-DAG rank. This theoretical analysis suggests that the set of candidate f-DAGs is much smaller than the whole DAG space and thus may be more suitable as a search space in the high-dimensional regime where the underlying skeleton is hard to assess. We propose Differentiable Causal Discovery of Factor Graphs (DCD-FG), a scalable implementation of -DAG constrained causal discovery for high-dimensional interventional data. DCD-FG uses a Gaussian non-linear low-rank structural equation model and shows significant improvements compared to state-of-the-art methods in both simulations as well as a recent large-scale single-cell RNA sequencing data set with hundreds of genetic interventions.

Jiacheng Miao, Jonathan K Pritchard, James Zou

Empirical research rarely admits a unique analysis. Different analytical choices can lead to different conclusions from the same data, yet these hidden forking paths are difficult to observe. We show that AI agents capture much of the analytical variation among human researchers while making these paths explicit. Across four high-stakes domains, assigning different personas is sufficient for AI agents to report divergent, often opposing, conclusions from the same data and question, with findings systematically aligned with those beliefs. In a study in which 42 human research teams analyzed the same immigration dataset, AI agents reproduced 72% of the human ideological gap in reported effect estimates. Despite reaching opposing conclusions, it is difficult to identify clear issues in each analysis based on the final AI reports: 86% passed independent AI review and 78% passed majority human expert review. These findings suggest that the central challenge is often not flawed analyses, but selective exploration and reporting from a large space of methodologically defensible analyses. AI agents may amplify this longstanding problem by making such exploration inexpensive and scalable. To address this, we introduce the m-value (multiverse value), the probability that an analysis path would produce a claim at least as extreme as the reported one. We further introduce Agentic Bootstrap, which estimates the m-value by using AI agents to sample plausible analysis paths. Applied to the human immigration study, 13.5% of reported human analyses fell in the most extreme 5% of the analysis space (m<0.05). Scientific evidence should therefore be evaluated not only by a single reported analysis but also by its position within the distribution of analyses that could reasonably have been reported. Agentic Bootstrap makes this distribution observable and turns it into a criterion for scientific credibility.

Jiacheng Miao, Joe R. Davis, Yaohui Zhang et al.

We introduce Paper2Agent, an automated framework that converts research papers into AI agents. Paper2Agent transforms research output from passive artifacts into active systems that can accelerate downstream use, adoption, and discovery. Conventional research papers require readers to invest substantial effort to understand and adapt a paper's code, data, and methods to their own work, creating barriers to dissemination and reuse. Paper2Agent addresses this challenge by automatically converting a paper into an AI agent that acts as a knowledgeable research assistant. It systematically analyzes the paper and the associated codebase using multiple agents to construct a Model Context Protocol (MCP) server, then iteratively generates and runs tests to refine and robustify the resulting MCP. These paper MCPs can then be flexibly connected to a chat agent (e.g. Claude Code) to carry out complex scientific queries through natural language while invoking tools and workflows from the original paper. We demonstrate Paper2Agent's effectiveness in creating reliable and capable paper agents through in-depth case studies. Paper2Agent created an agent that leverages AlphaGenome to interpret genomic variants and agents based on ScanPy and TISSUE to carry out single-cell and spatial transcriptomics analyses. We validate that these paper agents can reproduce the original paper's results and can correctly carry out novel user queries. Paper2Agent automatically created AI co-scientist that identified new splicing variant associated with ADHD risk. By turning static papers into dynamic, interactive AI agents, Paper2Agent introduces a new paradigm for knowledge dissemination and a foundation for the collaborative ecosystem of AI co-scientists.

Romain Lopez, Jan-Christian Huetter, Ehsan Hajiramezanali et al.

Deep Generative Models (DGMs) are versatile tools for learning data representations while adequately incorporating domain knowledge such as the specification of conditional probability distributions. Recently proposed DGMs tackle the important task of comparing data sets from different sources. One such example is the setting of contrastive analysis that focuses on describing patterns that are enriched in a target data set compared to a background data set. The practical deployment of those models often assumes that DGMs naturally infer interpretable and modular latent representations, which is known to be an issue in practice. Consequently, existing methods often rely on ad-hoc regularization schemes, although without any theoretical grounding. Here, we propose a theory of identifiability for comparative DGMs by extending recent advances in the field of non-linear independent component analysis. We show that, while these models lack identifiability across a general class of mixing functions, they surprisingly become identifiable when the mixing function is piece-wise affine (e.g., parameterized by a ReLU neural network). We also investigate the impact of model misspecification, and empirically show that previously proposed regularization techniques for fitting comparative DGMs help with identifiability when the number of latent variables is not known in advance. Finally, we introduce a novel methodology for fitting comparative DGMs that improves the treatment of multiple data sources via multi-objective optimization and that helps adjust the hyperparameter for the regularization in an interpretable manner, using constrained optimization. We empirically validate our theory and new methodology using simulated data as well as a recent data set of genetic perturbations in cells profiled via single-cell RNA sequencing.