Simone Antonelli

Simone Antonelli, Vincent Davis, Harrison Rush et al.

The Lightning Network (LN) is a second-layer protocol for Bitcoin designed to enable fast and cost-efficient off-chain transactions. Channels in the LN can be closed either by mutual agreement or unilaterally through a forced closure, which locks the involved capital for an extended period and degrades network reliability. In this paper, we study the problem of predicting channel closure types from publicly available gossip data, framing it as a temporal link classification task over the evolving channel graph. We construct a dataset spanning over two years of LN activity and benchmark a range of machine learning approaches, from MLPs to temporal graph neural networks and spectral encodings. Our experiments reveal that the dominant predictive signals are temporal and behavioural, namely how recently each endpoint was active and the per-node history of past closures, while the surrounding network topology provides no additional benefit. We find that a simple MLP operating on edge-level features, node-level event counts, and temporal patterns outperforms all graph-based approaches, and discuss how the inherent privacy of the LN, where critical information such as channel balances and payment flows remains hidden, fundamentally limits the predictability of closures from gossip data alone. We publicly release the dataset and code at https://github.com/AmbossTech/ln-channel-closure-prediction to encourage further research on this practically relevant task.

Donato Crisostomi, Simone Antonelli, Valentino Maiorca et al.

Many modern deep-learning techniques do not work without enormous datasets. At the same time, several fields demand methods working in scarcity of data. This problem is even more complex when the samples have varying structures, as in the case of graphs. Graph representation learning techniques have recently proven successful in a variety of domains. Nevertheless, the employed architectures perform miserably when faced with data scarcity. On the other hand, few-shot learning allows employing modern deep learning models in scarce data regimes without waiving their effectiveness. In this work, we tackle the problem of few-shot graph classification, showing that equipping a simple distance metric learning baseline with a state-of-the-art graph embedder allows to obtain competitive results on the task. While the simplicity of the architecture is enough to outperform more complex ones, it also allows straightforward additions. To this end, we show that additional improvements may be obtained by encouraging a task-conditioned embedding space. Finally, we propose a MixUp-based online data augmentation technique acting in the latent space and show its effectiveness on the task.

Simone Antonelli, Sadegh Akhondzadeh, Aleksandar Bojchevski

Test-Time Training (TTT) is an emerging paradigm that enables models to adapt their parameters during inference, improving performance on tasks such as few-shot learning, retrieval-augmented generation, and complex reasoning. However, this dynamic adaptation introduces new vulnerabilities that adversaries can exploit to jailbreak models. We identify three threat models for TTT and demonstrate how attackers can leverage them to bypass safety filters. Our results show that TTT can significantly increase the Attack Success Rate (ASR) and the ASR over 10 generation trials (ASR@10). For example, under LoRA, the few-shot and generation-phase threat models achieve an average ASR@10 of 95% and 93% respectively, across models from different families and scales. These vulnerabilities transfer to production fine-tuning APIs. We also show that TTT-induced overfitting can produce degenerate outputs that inflate ASR under standard judges, and propose a validity-aware evaluation to correct for this. Our findings suggest that TTT exposes a new attack surface, strengthens attacks, and undermines existing safety guardrails. As a first step toward defense, we propose a lightweight provider-side detector that flags TTT requests via the perplexity shift on a private harmful holdout, but robust deployment will ultimately require dynamic alignment.

Harrison Rush, Vincent Davis, Simone Antonelli et al.

We address liquidity placement in the Bitcoin Lightning Network (LN): given a fixed budget, which channels should a node open to maximize its routing capacity? We cast this as a budget-constrained combinatorial optimization problem on graphs, selecting $k$ edge additions that maximize $s$--$t$ max-flow, a theory-grounded measure of routing capacity, and solve it with graph reinforcement learning. Our lightweight agent combines a message-passing policy network with proximal policy optimization (PPO) and action masking, and is trained under a hub-exclusion curriculum: the network's top hubs are removed from training subgraphs, forcing the policy to learn capacity-aware placement rather than hub attachment. In extensive experiments on real Lightning Network snapshots, our method consistently outperforms strong heuristic baselines on the max-flow objective across multiple seeds and unseen graphs. The agent has been deployed in production for peer recommendations, executing 4640 channel-open decisions that cumulatively allocate 267.3 BTC over $16 million across 30 managed nodes.