Parley Ruogu Yang

Parley R Yang, Alexander Y Shestopaloff

We demonstrate the use of Conditional Variational Encoder (CVAE) to improve the forecasts of daily stock volume time series in both short and long term forecasting tasks, with the use of advanced information of input variables such as rebalancing dates. CVAE generates non-linear time series as out-of-sample forecasts, which have better accuracy and closer fit of correlation to the actual data, compared to traditional linear models. These generative forecasts can also be used for scenario generation, which aids interpretation. We further discuss correlations in non-stationary time series and other potential extensions from the CVAE forecasts.

Parley Ruogu Yang, Ryan Lucas

We introduce three adaptive time series learning methods, called Dynamic Model Selection (DMS), Adaptive Ensemble (AE), and Dynamic Asset Allocation (DAA). The methods respectively handle model selection, ensembling, and contextual evaluation in financial time series. Empirically, we use the methods to forecast the returns of four key indices in the US market, incorporating information from the VIX and Yield curves. We present financial applications of the learning results, including fully-automated portfolios and dynamic hedging strategies. The strategies strongly outperform long-only benchmarks over our testing period, spanning from Q4 2015 to the end of 2021. The key outputs of the learning methods are interpreted during the 2020 market crash.