Xavier Sumba

Carles Balsells-Rodas, Zhengrui Xiang, Xavier Sumba et al.

Learning identifiable representations in deep generative models remains a fundamental challenge, particularly for sequential data with regime-switching dynamics. Existing approaches establish identifiability under restrictive assumptions, such as stationarity or limited emission models, and typically rely on variational autoencoder (VAE) estimators, which introduce approximation gaps that limit the recovery of the latent structure. In this work, we address both the theoretical and practical limitations of this setting. First, we establish identifiability of a broad class of recurrent nonlinear switching dynamical systems under flexible assumptions, significantly extending prior results. Second, we introduce $Ω$SDS, a flow-based estimator that enables exact likelihood optimization using expectation-maximisation. Through empirical validation on both synthetic and real-world data, our results demonstrate that $Ω$SDS achieves improved disentanglement compared to VAE-based estimators and more accurate forecasting of underlying dynamics.

Xavier Sumba, Carles Balsells-Rodas, Yingzhen Li

Standard flow matching scales well but typically relies on an unstructured source distribution, limiting its ability to learn interpretable latent structure. Latent-variable models, by contrast, capture structure but often sacrifice generative quality. We bridge this gap by proposing Structured Coupling for Flow Matching (SCFM), a cooperative framework that augments flow matching with structured latent representation learning. By introducing structured latent variables and exogenous noise into the source, SCFM jointly learns a structured prior (via latent variable modeling) and a continuous transport map (via flow matching). It uses a shared time-dependent recognition network for both latent variable model variational inference and intermediate-time flow velocity estimation. This yields a structurally informed yet unconditional, simulation-free flow model, where the latent variable model can also assist flow sampling. Empirically, SCFM facilitates unsupervised latent representation learning for clustering, disentanglement and downstream tasks, while remaining competitive with flow matching in sample quality, showing that meaningful structure can be learned without sacrificing generative fidelity.

Carles Balsells-Rodas, Xavier Sumba, Tanmayee Narendra et al.

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying causal relationships from observational data, is highly challenging for AI systems. In a time series modeling context, traditional causal discovery methods mainly consider constrained scenarios with fully observed variables and/or data from stationary time-series. We develop a causal discovery approach to handle a wide class of nonstationary time series that are conditionally stationary, where the nonstationary behaviour is modeled as stationarity conditioned on a set of latent state variables. Named State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI), our approach is able to recover the underlying causal dependencies, with provable identifiablity for the state-dependent causal structures. Empirical experiments on nonlinear particle interaction data and gene regulatory networks demonstrate SDCI's superior performance over baseline causal discovery methods. Improved results over non-causal RNNs on modeling NBA player movements demonstrate the potential of our method and motivate the use of causality-driven methods for forecasting.

Edward Elson Kosasih, Joaquin Cabezas, Xavier Sumba et al.

In order to advance large-scale graph machine learning, the Open Graph Benchmark Large Scale Challenge (OGB-LSC) was proposed at the KDD Cup 2021. The PCQM4M-LSC dataset defines a molecular HOMO-LUMO property prediction task on about 3.8M graphs. In this short paper, we show our current work-in-progress solution which builds an ensemble of three graph neural networks models based on GIN, Bayesian Neural Networks and DiffPool. Our approach outperforms the provided baseline by 7.6%. Moreover, using uncertainty in our ensemble's prediction, we can identify molecules whose HOMO-LUMO gaps are harder to predict (with Pearson's correlation of 0.5181). We anticipate that this will facilitate active learning.