Roman Vaculin

Trang H. Tran, Lam M. Nguyen, Kyongmin Yeo et al. · ibm-research

Time series forecasting using historical data has been an interesting and challenging topic, especially when the data is corrupted by missing values. In many industrial problem, it is important to learn the inference function between the auxiliary observations and target variables as it provides additional knowledge when the data is not fully observed. We develop an end-to-end time series model that aims to learn the such inference relation and make a multiple-step ahead forecast. Our framework trains jointly two neural networks, one to learn the feature-wise correlations and the other for the modeling of temporal behaviors. Our model is capable of simultaneously imputing the missing entries and making a multiple-step ahead prediction. The experiments show good overall performance of our framework over existing methods in both imputation and forecasting tasks.

Ehud Aharoni, Moran Baruch, Pradip Bose et al.

Privacy-preserving machine learning (PPML) solutions are gaining widespread popularity. Among these, many rely on homomorphic encryption (HE) that offers confidentiality of the model and the data, but at the cost of large latency and memory requirements. Pruning neural network (NN) parameters improves latency and memory in plaintext ML but has little impact if directly applied to HE-based PPML. We introduce a framework called HE-PEx that comprises new pruning methods, on top of a packing technique called tile tensors, for reducing the latency and memory of PPML inference. HE-PEx uses permutations to prune additional ciphertexts, and expansion to recover inference loss. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods for pruning fully-connected and convolutional layers in NNs on PPML tasks, namely, image compression, denoising, and classification, with autoencoders, multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs). We implement and deploy our networks atop a framework called HElayers, which shows a 10-35% improvement in inference speed and a 17-35% decrease in memory requirement over the unpruned network, corresponding to 33-65% fewer ciphertexts, within a 2.5% degradation in inference accuracy over the unpruned network. Compared to the state-of-the-art pruning technique for PPML, our techniques generate networks with 70% fewer ciphertexts, on average, for the same degradation limit.

Vikas C. Raykar, Arindam Jati, Sumanta Mukherjee et al.

A trustworthy machine learning model should be accurate as well as explainable. Understanding why a model makes a certain decision defines the notion of explainability. While various flavors of explainability have been well-studied in supervised learning paradigms like classification and regression, literature on explainability for time series forecasting is relatively scarce. In this paper, we propose a feature-based explainability algorithm, TsSHAP, that can explain the forecast of any black-box forecasting model. The method is agnostic of the forecasting model and can provide explanations for a forecast in terms of interpretable features defined by the user a prior. The explanations are in terms of the SHAP values obtained by applying the TreeSHAP algorithm on a surrogate model that learns a mapping between the interpretable feature space and the forecast of the black-box model. Moreover, we formalize the notion of local, semi-local, and global explanations in the context of time series forecasting, which can be useful in several scenarios. We validate the efficacy and robustness of TsSHAP through extensive experiments on multiple datasets.

Natalia Martinez Gil, Fearghal O'Donncha, Wesley M. Gifford et al.

We propose a post-hoc adaptive conformal anomaly detection method for monitoring time series that leverages predictions from pre-trained foundation models without requiring additional fine-tuning. Our method yields an interpretable anomaly score directly interpretable as a false alarm rate (p-value), facilitating transparent and actionable decision-making. It employs weighted quantile conformal prediction bounds and adaptively learns optimal weighting parameters from past predictions, enabling calibration under distribution shifts and stable false alarm control, while preserving out-of-sample guarantees. As a model-agnostic solution, it integrates seamlessly with foundation models and supports rapid deployment in resource-constrained environments. This approach addresses key industrial challenges such as limited data availability, lack of training expertise, and the need for immediate inference, while taking advantage of the growing accessibility of time series foundation models. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed approach delivers strong performance, combining simplicity, interpretability, robustness, and adaptivity.

Dhaval Patel, Shuxin Lin, James Rayfield et al.

AI for Industrial Asset Lifecycle Management aims to automate complex operational workflows -- such as condition monitoring, maintenance planning, and intervention scheduling -- to reduce human workload and minimize system downtime. Traditional AI/ML approaches have primarily tackled these problems in isolation, solving narrow tasks within the broader operational pipeline. In contrast, the emergence of AI agents and large language models (LLMs) introduces a next-generation opportunity: enabling end-to-end automation across the entire asset lifecycle. This paper envisions a future where AI agents autonomously manage tasks that previously required distinct expertise and manual coordination. To this end, we introduce AssetOpsBench -- a unified framework and environment designed to guide the development, orchestration, and evaluation of domain-specific agents tailored for Industry 4.0 applications. We outline the key requirements for such holistic systems and provide actionable insights into building agents that integrate perception, reasoning, and control for real-world industrial operations. The software is available at https://github.com/IBM/AssetOpsBench.

Trang H. Tran, Lam M. Nguyen, Kyongmin Yeo et al.

Foundation models have recently gained attention within the field of machine learning thanks to its efficiency in broad data processing. While researchers had attempted to extend this success to time series models, the main challenge is effectively extracting representations and transferring knowledge from pretraining datasets to the target finetuning dataset. To tackle this issue, we introduce a novel pretraining procedure that leverages supervised contrastive learning to distinguish features within each pretraining dataset. This pretraining phase enables a probabilistic similarity metric, which assesses the likelihood of a univariate sample being closely related to one of the pretraining datasets. Subsequently, using this similarity metric as a guide, we propose a fine-tuning procedure designed to enhance the accurate prediction of the target data by aligning it more closely with the learned dynamics of the pretraining datasets. Our experiments have shown promising results which demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.

Fearghal O'Donncha, Nianjun Zhou, Natalia Martinez et al.

Industrial maintenance platforms contain rich but fragmented evidence, including free-text work orders, heterogeneous operational sensors or indicators, and structured failure knowledge. These sources are often analyzed in isolation, producing alerts or forecasts that do not support conditional decision-making: given this asset history and behavior, what is happening and what action is warranted? We present Condition Insight Agent, a deployed decision-support framework that integrates maintenance language, behavioral abstractions of operational data, and engineering failure semantics to produce evidence-grounded explanations and advisory actions. The system constrains reasoning through deterministic evidence construction and structured failure knowledge, and applies a rule-based verification loop to suppress unsupported conclusions. Case studies from production CMMS deployments show that this verification-first design operates reliably under heterogeneous and incomplete data while preserving human oversight. Our results demonstrate how constrained LLM-based reasoning can function as a governed decision-support layer for industrial maintenance.

Kanthi Sarpatwar, Karthik Nandakumar, Nalini Ratha et al.

Data privacy concerns often prevent the use of cloud-based machine learning services for sensitive personal data. While homomorphic encryption (HE) offers a potential solution by enabling computations on encrypted data, the challenge is to obtain accurate machine learning models that work within the multiplicative depth constraints of a leveled HE scheme. Existing approaches for encrypted inference either make ad-hoc simplifications to a pre-trained model (e.g., replace hard comparisons in a decision tree with soft comparators) at the cost of accuracy or directly train a new depth-constrained model using the original training set. In this work, we propose a framework to transfer knowledge extracted by complex decision tree ensembles to shallow neural networks (referred to as DTNets) that are highly conducive to encrypted inference. Our approach minimizes the accuracy loss by searching for the best DTNet architecture that operates within the given depth constraints and training this DTNet using only synthetic data sampled from the training data distribution. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that these characteristics are critical in ensuring that DTNet accuracy approaches that of the original tree ensemble. Our system is highly scalable and can perform efficient inference on batched encrypted (134 bits of security) data with amortized time in milliseconds. This is approximately three orders of magnitude faster than the standard approach of applying soft comparison at the internal nodes of the ensemble trees.

Syed Yousaf Shah, Dhaval Patel, Long Vu et al.

A large number of time series forecasting models including traditional statistical models, machine learning models and more recently deep learning have been proposed in the literature. However, choosing the right model along with good parameter values that performs well on a given data is still challenging. Automatically providing a good set of models to users for a given dataset saves both time and effort from using trial-and-error approaches with a wide variety of available models along with parameter optimization. We present AutoAI for Time Series Forecasting (AutoAI-TS) that provides users with a zero configuration (zero-conf ) system to efficiently train, optimize and choose best forecasting model among various classes of models for the given dataset. With its flexible zero-conf design, AutoAI-TS automatically performs all the data preparation, model creation, parameter optimization, training and model selection for users and provides a trained model that is ready to use. For given data, AutoAI-TS utilizes a wide variety of models including classical statistical models, Machine Learning (ML) models, statistical-ML hybrid models and deep learning models along with various transformations to create forecasting pipelines. It then evaluates and ranks pipelines using the proposed T-Daub mechanism to choose the best pipeline. The paper describe in detail all the technical aspects of AutoAI-TS along with extensive benchmarking on a variety of real world data sets for various use-cases. Benchmark results show that AutoAI-TS, with no manual configuration from the user, automatically trains and selects pipelines that on average outperform existing state-of-the-art time series forecasting toolkits.

Kanthi Sarpatwar, Karthikeyan Shanmugam, Venkata Sitaramagiridharganesh Ganapavarapu et al.

We envision AI marketplaces to be platforms where consumers, with very less data for a target task, can obtain a relevant model by accessing many private data sources with vast number of data samples. One of the key challenges is to construct a training dataset that matches a target task without compromising on privacy of the data sources. To this end, we consider the following distributed data summarizataion problem. Given K private source datasets denoted by $[D_i]_{i\in [K]}$ and a small target validation set $D_v$, which may involve a considerable covariate shift with respect to the sources, compute a summary dataset $D_s\subseteq \bigcup_{i\in [K]} D_i$ such that its statistical distance from the validation dataset $D_v$ is minimized. We use the popular Maximum Mean Discrepancy as the measure of statistical distance. The non-private problem has received considerable attention in prior art, for example in prototype selection (Kim et al., NIPS 2016). Our work is the first to obtain strong differential privacy guarantees while ensuring the quality guarantees of the non-private version. We study this problem in a Parsimonious Curator Privacy Model, where a trusted curator coordinates the summarization process while minimizing the amount of private information accessed. Our central result is a novel protocol that (a) ensures the curator accesses at most $O(K^{\frac{1}{3}}|D_s| + |D_v|)$ points (b) has formal privacy guarantees on the leakage of information between the data owners and (c) closely matches the best known non-private greedy algorithm. Our protocol uses two hash functions, one inspired by the Rahimi-Recht random features method and the second leverages state of the art differential privacy mechanisms. We introduce a novel "noiseless" differentially private auctioning protocol for winner notification and demonstrate the efficacy of our protocol using real-world datasets.

Ravi Kiran Raman, Roman Vaculin, Michael Hind et al.

Large-scale computational experiments, often running over weeks and over large datasets, are used extensively in fields such as epidemiology, meteorology, computational biology, and healthcare to understand phenomena, and design high-stakes policies affecting everyday health and economy. For instance, the OpenMalaria framework is a computationally-intensive simulation used by various non-governmental and governmental agencies to understand malarial disease spread and effectiveness of intervention strategies, and subsequently design healthcare policies. Given that such shared results form the basis of inferences drawn, technological solutions designed, and day-to-day policies drafted, it is essential that the computations are validated and trusted. In particular, in a multi-agent environment involving several independent computing agents, a notion of trust in results generated by peers is critical in facilitating transparency, accountability, and collaboration. Using a novel combination of distributed validation of atomic computation blocks and a blockchain-based immutable audits mechanism, this work proposes a universal framework for distributed trust in computations. In particular we address the scalaibility problem by reducing the storage and communication costs using a lossy compression scheme. This framework guarantees not only verifiability of final results, but also the validity of local computations, and its cost-benefit tradeoffs are studied using a synthetic example of training a neural network.

Qi Lei, Jinfeng Yi, Roman Vaculin et al.

A considerable amount of clustering algorithms take instance-feature matrices as their inputs. As such, they cannot directly analyze time series data due to its temporal nature, usually unequal lengths, and complex properties. This is a great pity since many of these algorithms are effective, robust, efficient, and easy to use. In this paper, we bridge this gap by proposing an efficient representation learning framework that is able to convert a set of time series with various lengths to an instance-feature matrix. In particular, we guarantee that the pairwise similarities between time series are well preserved after the transformation, thus the learned feature representation is particularly suitable for the time series clustering task. Given a set of $n$ time series, we first construct an $n\times n$ partially-observed similarity matrix by randomly sampling $\mathcal{O}(n \log n)$ pairs of time series and computing their pairwise similarities. We then propose an efficient algorithm that solves a non-convex and NP-hard problem to learn new features based on the partially-observed similarity matrix. By conducting extensive empirical studies, we show that the proposed framework is more effective, efficient, and flexible, compared to other state-of-the-art time series clustering methods.

Fenno F. Heath, Richard Hull, Elham Khabiri et al.

The Alexandria system under development at IBM Research provides an extensible framework and platform for supporting a variety of big-data analytics and visualizations. The system is currently focused on enabling rapid exploration of text-based social media data. The system provides tools to help with constructing "domain models" (i.e., families of keywords and extractors to enable focus on tweets and other social media documents relevant to a project), to rapidly extract and segment the relevant social media and its authors, to apply further analytics (such as finding trends and anomalous terms), and visualizing the results. The system architecture is centered around a variety of REST-based service APIs to enable flexible orchestration of the system capabilities; these are especially useful to support knowledge-worker driven iterative exploration of social phenomena. The architecture also enables rapid integration of Alexandria capabilities with other social media analytics system, as has been demonstrated through an integration with IBM Research's SystemG. This paper describes a prototypical usage scenario for Alexandria, along with the architecture and key underlying analytics.