Caiming Zhang

Tianlong Zhao, Xiang Ma, Xuemei Li et al.

Time series forecasting has received wide interest from existing research due to its broad applications and inherent challenging. The research challenge lies in identifying effective patterns in historical series and applying them to future forecasting. Advanced models based on point-wise connected MLP and Transformer architectures have strong fitting power, but their secondary computational complexity limits practicality. Additionally, those structures inherently disrupt the temporal order, reducing the information utilization and making the forecasting process uninterpretable. To solve these problems, this paper proposes a forecasting model, MPR-Net. It first adaptively decomposes multi-scale historical series patterns using convolution operation, then constructs a pattern extension forecasting method based on the prior knowledge of pattern reproduction, and finally reconstructs future patterns into future series using deconvolution operation. By leveraging the temporal dependencies present in the time series, MPR-Net not only achieves linear time complexity, but also makes the forecasting process interpretable. By carrying out sufficient experiments on more than ten real data sets of both short and long term forecasting tasks, MPR-Net achieves the state of the art forecasting performance, as well as good generalization and robustness performance.

Xiang Ma, Taihua Chen, Pengcheng Wang et al.

Time series forecasting is crucial for applications in various domains. Conventional methods often rely on global decomposition into trend, seasonal, and residual components, which become ineffective for real-world series dominated by local, complex, and highly dynamic patterns. Moreover, the high model complexity of such approaches limits their applicability in real-time or resource-constrained environments. In this work, we propose a novel \textbf{RE}liability-aware \textbf{C}odebook-\textbf{AS}sisted \textbf{T}ime series forecasting framework (\textbf{ReCast}) that enables lightweight and robust prediction by exploiting recurring local shapes. ReCast encodes local patterns into discrete embeddings through patch-wise quantization using a learnable codebook, thereby compactly capturing stable regular structures. To compensate for residual variations not preserved by quantization, ReCast employs a dual-path architecture comprising a quantization path for efficient modeling of regular structures and a residual path for reconstructing irregular fluctuations. A central contribution of ReCast is a reliability-aware codebook update strategy, which incrementally refines the codebook via weighted corrections. These correction weights are derived by fusing multiple reliability factors from complementary perspectives by a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) scheme, ensuring adaptability to non-stationarity and robustness to distribution shifts. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ReCast outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) models in accuracy, efficiency, and adaptability to distribution shifts.

Ping Wang, Jizong Peng, Marco Pedersoli et al.

Despite their outstanding accuracy, semi-supervised segmentation methods based on deep neural networks can still yield predictions that are considered anatomically impossible by clinicians, for instance, containing holes or disconnected regions. To solve this problem, we present a Context-aware Virtual Adversarial Training (CaVAT) method for generating anatomically plausible segmentation. Unlike approaches focusing solely on accuracy, our method also considers complex topological constraints like connectivity which cannot be easily modeled in a differentiable loss function. We use adversarial training to generate examples violating the constraints, so the network can learn to avoid making such incorrect predictions on new examples, and employ the Reinforce algorithm to handle non-differentiable segmentation constraints. The proposed method offers a generic and efficient way to add any constraint on top of any segmentation network. Experiments on two clinically-relevant datasets show our method to produce segmentations that are both accurate and anatomically-plausible in terms of region connectivity.