Tim Weninger

CL
h-index15
44papers
3,152citations
Novelty43%
AI Score56

44 Papers

LGOct 17, 2023Code
TK-KNN: A Balanced Distance-Based Pseudo Labeling Approach for Semi-Supervised Intent Classification

Nicholas Botzer, David Vasquez, Tim Weninger et al.

The ability to detect intent in dialogue systems has become increasingly important in modern technology. These systems often generate a large amount of unlabeled data, and manually labeling this data requires substantial human effort. Semi-supervised methods attempt to remedy this cost by using a model trained on a few labeled examples and then by assigning pseudo-labels to further a subset of unlabeled examples that has a model prediction confidence higher than a certain threshold. However, one particularly perilous consequence of these methods is the risk of picking an imbalanced set of examples across classes, which could lead to poor labels. In the present work, we describe Top-K K-Nearest Neighbor (TK-KNN), which uses a more robust pseudo-labeling approach based on distance in the embedding space while maintaining a balanced set of pseudo-labeled examples across classes through a ranking-based approach. Experiments on several datasets show that TK-KNN outperforms existing models, particularly when labeled data is scarce on popular datasets such as CLINC150 and Banking77. Code is available at https://github.com/ServiceNow/tk-knn

CVJun 2, 2022
H-EMD: A Hierarchical Earth Mover's Distance Method for Instance Segmentation

Peixian Liang, Yizhe Zhang, Yifan Ding et al.

Deep learning (DL) based semantic segmentation methods have achieved excellent performance in biomedical image segmentation, producing high quality probability maps to allow extraction of rich instance information to facilitate good instance segmentation. While numerous efforts were put into developing new DL semantic segmentation models, less attention was paid to a key issue of how to effectively explore their probability maps to attain the best possible instance segmentation. We observe that probability maps by DL semantic segmentation models can be used to generate many possible instance candidates, and accurate instance segmentation can be achieved by selecting from them a set of "optimized" candidates as output instances. Further, the generated instance candidates form a well-behaved hierarchical structure (a forest), which allows selecting instances in an optimized manner. Hence, we propose a novel framework, called hierarchical earth mover's distance (H-EMD), for instance segmentation in biomedical 2D+time videos and 3D images, which judiciously incorporates consistent instance selection with semantic-segmentation-generated probability maps. H-EMD contains two main stages. (1) Instance candidate generation: capturing instance-structured information in probability maps by generating many instance candidates in a forest structure. (2) Instance candidate selection: selecting instances from the candidate set for final instance segmentation. We formulate a key instance selection problem on the instance candidate forest as an optimization problem based on the earth mover's distance (EMD), and solve it by integer linear programming. Extensive experiments on eight biomedical video or 3D datasets demonstrate that H-EMD consistently boosts DL semantic segmentation models and is highly competitive with state-of-the-art methods.

CVMar 16, 2022
Motif Mining: Finding and Summarizing Remixed Image Content

William Theisen, Daniel Gonzalez Cedre, Zachariah Carmichael et al.

On the internet, images are no longer static; they have become dynamic content. Thanks to the availability of smartphones with cameras and easy-to-use editing software, images can be remixed (i.e., redacted, edited, and recombined with other content) on-the-fly and with a world-wide audience that can repeat the process. From digital art to memes, the evolution of images through time is now an important topic of study for digital humanists, social scientists, and media forensics specialists. However, because typical data sets in computer vision are composed of static content, the development of automated algorithms to analyze remixed content has been limited. In this paper, we introduce the idea of Motif Mining - the process of finding and summarizing remixed image content in large collections of unlabeled and unsorted data. In this paper, this idea is formalized and a reference implementation is introduced. Experiments are conducted on three meme-style data sets, including a newly collected set associated with the information war in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. The proposed motif mining approach is able to identify related remixed content that, when compared to similar approaches, more closely aligns with the preferences and expectations of human observers.

CLSep 18, 2024
MedCodER: A Generative AI Assistant for Medical Coding

Krishanu Das Baksi, Elijah Soba, John J. Higgins et al.

Medical coding is essential for standardizing clinical data and communication but is often time-consuming and prone to errors. Traditional Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods struggle with automating coding due to the large label space, lengthy text inputs, and the absence of supporting evidence annotations that justify code selection. Recent advancements in Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) offer promising solutions to these challenges. In this work, we introduce MedCodER, a Generative AI framework for automatic medical coding that leverages extraction, retrieval, and re-ranking techniques as core components. MedCodER achieves a micro-F1 score of 0.60 on International Classification of Diseases (ICD) code prediction, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, we present a new dataset containing medical records annotated with disease diagnoses, ICD codes, and supporting evidence texts (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13308316). Ablation tests confirm that MedCodER's performance depends on the integration of each of its aforementioned components, as performance declines when these components are evaluated in isolation.

LGMar 21, 2023
Dynamic Vertex Replacement Grammars

Daniel Gonzalez Cedre, Justus Isaiah Hibshman, Timothy La Fond et al.

Context-free graph grammars have shown a remarkable ability to model structures in real-world relational data. However, graph grammars lack the ability to capture time-changing phenomena since the left-to-right transitions of a production rule do not represent temporal change. In the present work, we describe dynamic vertex-replacement grammars (DyVeRG), which generalize vertex replacement grammars in the time domain by providing a formal framework for updating a learned graph grammar in accordance with modifications to its underlying data. We show that DyVeRG grammars can be learned from, and used to generate, real-world dynamic graphs faithfully while remaining human-interpretable. We also demonstrate their ability to forecast by computing dyvergence scores, a novel graph similarity measurement exposed by this framework.

CVMay 11, 2022
MEWS: Real-time Social Media Manipulation Detection and Analysis

Trenton W. Ford, William Theisen, Michael Yankoski et al.

This article presents a beta-version of MEWS (Misinformation Early Warning System). It describes the various aspects of the ingestion, manipulation detection, and graphing algorithms employed to determine--in near real-time--the relationships between social media images as they emerge and spread on social media platforms. By combining these various technologies into a single processing pipeline, MEWS can identify manipulated media items as they arise and identify when these particular items begin trending on individual social media platforms or even across multiple platforms. The emergence of a novel manipulation followed by rapid diffusion of the manipulated content suggests a disinformation campaign.

CLFeb 20, 2024Code
ChatEL: Entity Linking with Chatbots

Yifan Ding, Qingkai Zeng, Tim Weninger

Entity Linking (EL) is an essential and challenging task in natural language processing that seeks to link some text representing an entity within a document or sentence with its corresponding entry in a dictionary or knowledge base. Most existing approaches focus on creating elaborate contextual models that look for clues the words surrounding the entity-text to help solve the linking problem. Although these fine-tuned language models tend to work, they can be unwieldy, difficult to train, and do not transfer well to other domains. Fortunately, Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT provide a highly-advanced solution to the problems inherent in EL models, but simply naive prompts to LLMs do not work well. In the present work, we define ChatEL, which is a three-step framework to prompt LLMs to return accurate results. Overall the ChatEL framework improves the average F1 performance across 10 datasets by more than 2%. Finally, a thorough error analysis shows many instances with the ground truth labels were actually incorrect, and the labels predicted by ChatEL were actually correct. This indicates that the quantitative results presented in this paper may be a conservative estimate of the actual performance. All data and code are available as an open-source package on GitHub at https://github.com/yifding/In_Context_EL.

CLFeb 9, 2024Code
EntGPT: Entity Linking with Generative Large Language Models

Yifan Ding, Amrit Poudel, Qingkai Zeng et al.

Entity Linking in natural language processing seeks to match text entities to their corresponding entries in a dictionary or knowledge base. Traditional approaches rely on contextual models, which can be complex, hard to train, and have limited transferability across different domains. Generative large language models like GPT offer a promising alternative but often underperform with naive prompts. In this study, we introduce EntGPT, employing advanced prompt engineering to enhance EL tasks. Our three-step hard-prompting method (EntGPT-P) significantly boosts the micro-F_1 score by up to 36% over vanilla prompts, achieving competitive performance across 10 datasets without supervised fine-tuning. Additionally, our instruction tuning method (EntGPT-I) improves micro-F_1 scores by 2.1% on average in supervised EL tasks and outperforms several baseline models in six Question Answering tasks. Our methods are compatible with both open-source and proprietary LLMs. All data and code are available on GitHub at https://github.com/yifding/In_Context_EL.

SISep 19, 2024
Fear and Loathing on the Frontline: Decoding the Language of Othering by Russia-Ukraine War Bloggers

Patrick Gerard, William Theisen, Tim Weninger et al.

Othering, the act of portraying outgroups as fundamentally different from the ingroup, often escalates into framing them as existential threats--fueling intergroup conflict and justifying exclusion and violence. These dynamics are alarmingly pervasive, spanning from the extreme historical examples of genocides against minorities in Germany and Rwanda to the ongoing violence and rhetoric targeting migrants in the US and Europe. While concepts like hate speech and fear speech have been explored in existing literature, they capture only part of this broader and more nuanced dynamic which can often be harder to detect, particularly in online speech and propaganda. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel computational framework that leverages large language models (LLMs) to quantify othering across diverse contexts, extending beyond traditional linguistic indicators of hostility. Applying the model to real-world data from Telegram war bloggers and political discussions on Gab reveals how othering escalates during conflicts, interacts with moral language, and garners significant attention, particularly during periods of crisis. Our framework, designed to offer deeper insights into othering dynamics, combines with a rapid adaptation process to provide essential tools for mitigating othering's adverse impacts on social cohesion.

DCSep 25, 2020Code
HetSeq: Distributed GPU Training on Heterogeneous Infrastructure

Yifan Ding, Nicholas Botzer, Tim Weninger

Modern deep learning systems like PyTorch and Tensorflow are able to train enormous models with billions (or trillions) of parameters on a distributed infrastructure. These systems require that the internal nodes have the same memory capacity and compute performance. Unfortunately, most organizations, especially universities, have a piecemeal approach to purchasing computer systems resulting in a heterogeneous infrastructure, which cannot be used to compute large models. The present work describes HetSeq, a software package adapted from the popular PyTorch package that provides the capability to train large neural network models on heterogeneous infrastructure. Experiments with transformer translation and BERT language model shows that HetSeq scales over heterogeneous systems. HetSeq can be easily extended to other models like image classification. Package with supported document is publicly available at https://github.com/yifding/hetseq.

HCNov 4, 2025
AI Credibility Signals Outrank Institutions and Engagement in Shaping News Perception on Social Media

Adnan Hoq, Matthew Facciani, Tim Weninger

AI-generated content is rapidly becoming a salient component of online information ecosystems, yet its influence on public trust and epistemic judgments remains poorly understood. We present a large-scale mixed-design experiment (N = 1,000) investigating how AI-generated credibility scores affect user perception of political news. Our results reveal that AI feedback significantly moderates partisan bias and institutional distrust, surpassing traditional engagement signals such as likes and shares. These findings demonstrate the persuasive power of generative AI and suggest a need for design strategies that balance epistemic influence with user autonomy.

45.0MAMar 27
Deception and Communication in Autonomous Multi-Agent Systems: An Experimental Study with Among Us

Maria Milkowski, Tim Weninger

As large language models are deployed as autonomous agents, their capacity for strategic deception raises core questions for coordination, reliability, and safety in multi-goal, multi-agent systems. We study deception and communication in L2LM agents through the social deduction game Among Us, a cooperative-competitive environment. Across 1,100 games, autonomous agents produced over one million tokens of meeting dialogue. Using speech act theory and interpersonal deception theory, we find that all agents rely mainly on directive language, while impostor agents shift slightly toward representative acts such as explanations and denials. Deception appears primarily as equivocation rather than outright lies, increasing under social pressure but rarely improving win rates. Our contributions are a large-scale analysis of role-conditioned deceptive behavior in LLM agents and empirical evidence that current agents favor low-risk ambiguity that is linguistically subtle yet strategically limited, revealing a fundamental tension between truthfulness and utility in autonomous communication.

HCMar 8
Evaluating LLMs as Human Surrogates in Controlled Experiments

Adnan Hoq, Tim Weninger

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to simulate human responses in behavioral research, yet it remains unclear when LLM-generated data support the same experimental inferences as human data. We evaluate this by directly comparing off-the-shelf LLM-generated responses with human responses from a canonical survey experiment on accuracy perception. Each human observation is converted into a structured prompt, and models generate a single 0--10 outcome variable without task-specific training; identical statistical analyses are applied to human and synthetic responses. We find that LLMs reproduce several directional effects observed in humans, but effect magnitudes and moderation patterns vary across models. Off-the-shelf LLMs therefore capture aggregate belief-updating patterns under controlled conditions but do not consistently match human-scale effects, clarifying when LLM-generated data can function as behavioral surrogates.

SISep 12, 2024
Modeling Information Narrative Detection and Evolution on Telegram during the Russia-Ukraine War

Patrick Gerard, Svitlana Volkova, Louis Penafiel et al.

Following the Russian Federation's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a multitude of information narratives emerged within both pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian communities online. As the conflict progresses, so too do the information narratives, constantly adapting and influencing local and global community perceptions and attitudes. This dynamic nature of the evolving information environment (IE) underscores a critical need to fully discern how narratives evolve and affect online communities. Existing research, however, often fails to capture information narrative evolution, overlooking both the fluid nature of narratives and the internal mechanisms that drive their evolution. Recognizing this, we introduce a novel approach designed to both model narrative evolution and uncover the underlying mechanisms driving them. In this work we perform a comparative discourse analysis across communities on Telegram covering the initial three months following the invasion. First, we uncover substantial disparities in narratives and perceptions between pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian communities. Then, we probe deeper into prevalent narratives of each group, identifying key themes and examining the underlying mechanisms fueling their evolution. Finally, we explore influences and factors that may shape the development and spread of narratives.

CLJan 2, 2025
Citations and Trust in LLM Generated Responses

Yifan Ding, Matthew Facciani, Amrit Poudel et al.

Question answering systems are rapidly advancing, but their opaque nature may impact user trust. We explored trust through an anti-monitoring framework, where trust is predicted to be correlated with presence of citations and inversely related to checking citations. We tested this hypothesis with a live question-answering experiment that presented text responses generated using a commercial Chatbot along with varying citations (zero, one, or five), both relevant and random, and recorded if participants checked the citations and their self-reported trust in the generated responses. We found a significant increase in trust when citations were present, a result that held true even when the citations were random; we also found a significant decrease in trust when participants checked the citations. These results highlight the importance of citations in enhancing trust in AI-generated content.

IRJan 27, 2024
Navigating the Post-API Dilemma | Search Engine Results Pages Present a Biased View of Social Media Data

Amrit Poudel, Tim Weninger

Recent decisions to discontinue access to social media APIs are having detrimental effects on Internet research and the field of computational social science as a whole. This lack of access to data has been dubbed the Post-API era of Internet research. Fortunately, popular search engines have the means to crawl, capture, and surface social media data on their Search Engine Results Pages (SERP) if provided the proper search query, and may provide a solution to this dilemma. In the present work we ask: does SERP provide a complete and unbiased sample of social media data? Is SERP a viable alternative to direct API-access? To answer these questions, we perform a comparative analysis between (Google) SERP results and nonsampled data from Reddit and Twitter/X. We find that SERP results are highly biased in favor of popular posts; against political, pornographic, and vulgar posts; are more positive in their sentiment; and have large topical gaps. Overall, we conclude that SERP is not a viable alternative to social media API access.

CLMar 18, 2024
Span-Oriented Information Extraction -- A Unifying Perspective on Information Extraction

Yifan Ding, Michael Yankoski, Tim Weninger

Information Extraction refers to a collection of tasks within Natural Language Processing (NLP) that identifies sub-sequences within text and their labels. These tasks have been used for many years to link extract relevant information and to link free text to structured data. However, the heterogeneity among information extraction tasks impedes progress in this area. We therefore offer a unifying perspective centered on what we define to be spans in text. We then re-orient these seemingly incongruous tasks into this unified perspective and then re-present the wide assortment of information extraction tasks as variants of the same basic Span-Oriented Information Extraction task.

CLJul 17, 2025
Social and Political Framing in Search Engine Results

Amrit Poudel, Tim Weninger

Search engines play a crucial role in shaping public discourse by influencing how information is accessed and framed. While prior research has extensively examined various dimensions of search bias -- such as content prioritization, indexical bias, political polarization, and sources of bias -- an important question remains underexplored: how do search engines and ideologically-motivated user queries contribute to bias in search results. This study analyzes the outputs of major search engines using a dataset of political and social topics. The findings reveal that search engines not only prioritize content in ways that reflect underlying biases but also that ideologically-driven user queries exacerbate these biases, resulting in the amplification of specific narratives. Moreover, significant differences were observed across search engines in terms of the sources they prioritize. These results suggest that search engines may play a pivotal role in shaping public perceptions by reinforcing ideological divides, thereby contributing to the broader issue of information polarization.

CLJun 17, 2025
Digital Gatekeepers: Google's Role in Curating Hashtags and Subreddits

Amrit Poudel, Yifan Ding, Jurgen Pfeffer et al.

Search engines play a crucial role as digital gatekeepers, shaping the visibility of Web and social media content through algorithmic curation. This study investigates how search engines like Google selectively promotes or suppresses certain hashtags and subreddits, impacting the information users encounter. By comparing search engine results with nonsampled data from Reddit and Twitter/X, we reveal systematic biases in content visibility. Google's algorithms tend to suppress subreddits and hashtags related to sexually explicit material, conspiracy theories, advertisements, and cryptocurrencies, while promoting content associated with higher engagement. These findings suggest that Google's gatekeeping practices influence public discourse by curating the social media narratives available to users.

CVOct 10, 2025
Cell Instance Segmentation: The Devil Is in the Boundaries

Peixian Liang, Yifan Ding, Yizhe Zhang et al.

State-of-the-art (SOTA) methods for cell instance segmentation are based on deep learning (DL) semantic segmentation approaches, focusing on distinguishing foreground pixels from background pixels. In order to identify cell instances from foreground pixels (e.g., pixel clustering), most methods decompose instance information into pixel-wise objectives, such as distances to foreground-background boundaries (distance maps), heat gradients with the center point as heat source (heat diffusion maps), and distances from the center point to foreground-background boundaries with fixed angles (star-shaped polygons). However, pixel-wise objectives may lose significant geometric properties of the cell instances, such as shape, curvature, and convexity, which require a collection of pixels to represent. To address this challenge, we present a novel pixel clustering method, called Ceb (for Cell boundaries), to leverage cell boundary features and labels to divide foreground pixels into cell instances. Starting with probability maps generated from semantic segmentation, Ceb first extracts potential foreground-foreground boundaries with a revised Watershed algorithm. For each boundary candidate, a boundary feature representation (called boundary signature) is constructed by sampling pixels from the current foreground-foreground boundary as well as the neighboring background-foreground boundaries. Next, a boundary classifier is used to predict its binary boundary label based on the corresponding boundary signature. Finally, cell instances are obtained by dividing or merging neighboring regions based on the predicted boundary labels. Extensive experiments on six datasets demonstrate that Ceb outperforms existing pixel clustering methods on semantic segmentation probability maps. Moreover, Ceb achieves highly competitive performance compared to SOTA cell instance segmentation methods.

CLAug 23, 2025
The Power of Framing: How News Headlines Guide Search Behavior

Amrit Poudel, Maria Milkowski, Tim Weninger

Search engines play a central role in how people gather information, but subtle cues like headline framing may influence not only what users believe but also how they search. While framing effects on judgment are well documented, their impact on subsequent search behavior is less understood. We conducted a controlled experiment where participants issued queries and selected from headlines filtered by specific linguistic frames. Headline framing significantly shaped follow-up queries: conflict and strategy frames disrupted alignment with prior selections, while episodic frames led to more concrete queries than thematic ones. We also observed modest short-term frame persistence that declined over time. These results suggest that even brief exposure to framing can meaningfully alter the direction of users information-seeking behavior.

CYJul 16, 2021
Pilot Study Suggests Online Media Literacy Programming Reduces Belief in False News in Indonesia

Pamela Bilo Thomas, Clark Hogan-Taylor, Michael Yankoski et al.

Amidst the threat of digital misinformation, we offer a pilot study regarding the efficacy of an online social media literacy campaign aimed at empowering individuals in Indonesia with skills to help them identify misinformation. We found that users who engaged with our online training materials and educational videos were more likely to identify misinformation than those in our control group (total $N$=1000). Given the promising results of our preliminary study, we plan to expand efforts in this area, and build upon lessons learned from this pilot study.

CLJun 2, 2021
Posthoc Verification and the Fallibility of the Ground Truth

Yifan Ding, Nicholas Botzer, Tim Weninger

Classifiers commonly make use of pre-annotated datasets, wherein a model is evaluated by pre-defined metrics on a held-out test set typically made of human-annotated labels. Metrics used in these evaluations are tied to the availability of well-defined ground truth labels, and these metrics typically do not allow for inexact matches. These noisy ground truth labels and strict evaluation metrics may compromise the validity and realism of evaluation results. In the present work, we discuss these concerns and conduct a systematic posthoc verification experiment on the entity linking (EL) task. Unlike traditional methodologies, which asks annotators to provide free-form annotations, we ask annotators to verify the correctness of annotations after the fact (i.e., posthoc). Compared to pre-annotation evaluation, state-of-the-art EL models performed extremely well according to the posthoc evaluation methodology. Posthoc validation also permits the validation of the ground truth dataset. Surprisingly, we find predictions from EL models had a similar or higher verification rate than the ground truth. We conclude with a discussion on these findings and recommendations for future evaluations.

LGJun 2, 2021
Rater Equivalence: Evaluating Classifiers in Human Judgment Settings

Paul Resnick, Yuqing Kong, Grant Schoenebeck et al.

In many decision settings, the definitive ground truth is either non-existent or inaccessible. We introduce a framework for evaluating classifiers based solely on human judgments. In such cases, it is helpful to compare automated classifiers to human judgment. We quantify a classifier's performance by its rater equivalence: the smallest number of human raters whose combined judgment matches the classifier's performance. Our framework uses human-generated labels both to construct benchmark panels and to evaluate performance. We distinguish between two models of utility: one based on agreement with the assumed but inaccessible ground truth, and one based on matching individual human judgments. Using case studies and formal analysis, we demonstrate how this framework can inform the evaluation and deployment of AI systems in practice.

CLJan 4, 2021
Reddit Entity Linking Dataset

Nicholas Botzer, Yifan Ding, Tim Weninger

We introduce and make publicly available an entity linking dataset from Reddit that contains 17,316 linked entities, each annotated by three human annotators and then grouped into Gold, Silver, and Bronze to indicate inter-annotator agreement. We analyze the different errors and disagreements made by annotators and suggest three types of corrections to the raw data. Finally, we tested existing entity linking models that are trained and tuned on text from non-social media datasets. We find that, although these existing entity linking models perform very well on their original datasets, they perform poorly on this social media dataset. We also show that the majority of these errors can be attributed to poor performance on the mention detection subtask. These results indicate the need for better entity linking models that can be applied to the enormous amount of social media text.

CVJan 17, 2020
Automatic Discovery of Political Meme Genres with Diverse Appearances

William Theisen, Joel Brogan, Pamela Bilo Thomas et al.

Forms of human communication are not static -- we expect some evolution in the way information is conveyed over time because of advances in technology. One example of this phenomenon is the image-based meme, which has emerged as a dominant form of political messaging in the past decade. While originally used to spread jokes on social media, memes are now having an outsized impact on public perception of world events. A significant challenge in automatic meme analysis has been the development of a strategy to match memes from within a single genre when the appearances of the images vary. Such variation is especially common in memes exhibiting mimicry. For example, when voters perform a common hand gesture to signal their support for a candidate. In this paper we introduce a scalable automated visual recognition pipeline for discovering political meme genres of diverse appearance. This pipeline can ingest meme images from a social network, apply computer vision-based techniques to extract local features and index new images into a database, and then organize the memes into related genres. To validate this approach, we perform a large case study on the 2019 Indonesian Presidential Election using a new dataset of over two million images collected from Twitter and Instagram. Results show that this approach can discover new meme genres with visually diverse images that share common stylistic elements, paving the way forward for further work in semantic analysis and content attribution.

SIJul 10, 2019
Dynamics of Team Library Adoptions: An Exploration of GitHub Commit Logs

Pamela Bilo Thomas, Rachel Krohn, Tim Weninger

When a group of people strives to understand new information, struggle ensues as various ideas compete for attention. Steep learning curves are surmounted as teams learn together. To understand how these team dynamics play out in software development, we explore Git logs, which provide a complete change history of software repositories. In these repositories, we observe code additions, which represent successfully implemented ideas, and code deletions, which represent ideas that have failed or been superseded. By examining the patterns between these commit types, we can begin to understand how teams adopt new information. We specifically study what happens after a software library is adopted by a project, i.e., when a library is used for the first time in the project. We find that a variety of factors, including team size, library popularity, and prevalence on Stack Overflow are associated with how quickly teams learn and successfully adopt new software libraries.

STJul 1, 2019
Improved Forecasting of Cryptocurrency Price using Social Signals

Maria Glenski, Tim Weninger, Svitlana Volkova

Social media signals have been successfully used to develop large-scale predictive and anticipatory analytics. For example, forecasting stock market prices and influenza outbreaks. Recently, social data has been explored to forecast price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies, which are a novel disruptive technology with significant political and economic implications. In this paper we leverage and contrast the predictive power of social signals, specifically user behavior and communication patterns, from multiple social platforms GitHub and Reddit to forecast prices for three cyptocurrencies with high developer and community interest - Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero. We evaluate the performance of neural network models that rely on long short-term memory units (LSTMs) trained on historical price data and social data against price only LSTMs and baseline autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, commonly used to predict stock prices. Our results not only demonstrate that social signals reduce error when forecasting daily coin price, but also show that the language used in comments within the official communities on Reddit (r/Bitcoin, r/Ethereum, and r/Monero) are the best predictors overall. We observe that models are more accurate in forecasting price one day ahead for Bitcoin (4% root mean squared percent error) compared to Ethereum (7%) and Monero (8%).

HCSep 3, 2018
GuessTheKarma: A Game to Assess Social Rating Systems

Maria Glenski, Greg Stoddard, Paul Resnick et al.

Popularity systems, like Twitter retweets, Reddit upvotes, and Pinterest pins have the potential to guide people toward posts that others liked. That, however, creates a feedback loop that reduces their informativeness: items marked as more popular get more attention, so that additional upvotes and retweets may simply reflect the increased attention and not independent information about the fraction of people that like the items. How much information remains? For example, how confident can we be that more people prefer item A to item B if item A had hundreds of upvotes on Reddit and item B had only a few? We investigate using an Internet game called GuessTheKarma that collects independent preference judgments (N=20,674) for 400 pairs of images, approximately 50 per pair. Unlike the rating systems that dominate social media services, GuessTheKarma is devoid of social and ranking effects that influence ratings. Overall, Reddit scores were not very good predictors of the true population preferences for items as measured by GuessTheKarma: the image with higher score was preferred by a majority of independent raters only 68% of the time. However, when one image had a low score and the other was one of the highest scoring in its subreddit, the higher scoring image was preferred nearly 90% of the time by the majority of independent raters. Similarly, Imgur view counts for the images were poor predictors except when there were orders of magnitude differences between the pairs. We conclude that popularity systems marked by feedback loops may convey a strong signal about population preferences, but only when comparing items that received vastly different popularity scores.

SIJun 11, 2018
Growing Better Graphs With Latent-Variable Probabilistic Graph Grammars

Xinyi Wang, Salvador Aguinaga, Tim Weninger et al.

Recent work in graph models has found that probabilistic hyperedge replacement grammars (HRGs) can be extracted from graphs and used to generate new random graphs with graph properties and substructures close to the original. In this paper, we show how to add latent variables to the model, trained using Expectation-Maximization, to generate still better graphs, that is, ones that generalize better to the test data. We evaluate the new method by separating training and test graphs, building the model on the former and measuring the likelihood of the latter, as a more stringent test of how well the model can generalize to new graphs. On this metric, we find that our latent-variable HRGs consistently outperform several existing graph models and provide interesting insights into the building blocks of real world networks.

CLMay 30, 2018
Identifying and Understanding User Reactions to Deceptive and Trusted Social News Sources

Maria Glenski, Tim Weninger, Svitlana Volkova

In the age of social news, it is important to understand the types of reactions that are evoked from news sources with various levels of credibility. In the present work we seek to better understand how users react to trusted and deceptive news sources across two popular, and very different, social media platforms. To that end, (1) we develop a model to classify user reactions into one of nine types, such as answer, elaboration, and question, etc, and (2) we measure the speed and the type of reaction for trusted and deceptive news sources for 10.8M Twitter posts and 6.2M Reddit comments. We show that there are significant differences in the speed and the type of reactions between trusted and deceptive news sources on Twitter, but far smaller differences on Reddit.

CLFeb 23, 2018
Visualizing the Flow of Discourse with a Concept Ontology

Baoxu Shi, Tim Weninger

Understanding and visualizing human discourse has long being a challenging task. Although recent work on argument mining have shown success in classifying the role of various sentences, the task of recognizing concepts and understanding the ways in which they are discussed remains challenging. Given an email thread or a transcript of a group discussion, our task is to extract the relevant concepts and understand how they are referenced and re-referenced throughout the discussion. In the present work, we present a preliminary approach for extracting and visualizing group discourse by adapting Wikipedia's category hierarchy to be an external concept ontology. From a user study, we found that our method achieved better results than 4 strong alternative approaches, and we illustrate our visualization method based on the extracted discourse flows.

AINov 9, 2017
Open-World Knowledge Graph Completion

Baoxu Shi, Tim Weninger

Knowledge Graphs (KGs) have been applied to many tasks including Web search, link prediction, recommendation, natural language processing, and entity linking. However, most KGs are far from complete and are growing at a rapid pace. To address these problems, Knowledge Graph Completion (KGC) has been proposed to improve KGs by filling in its missing connections. Unlike existing methods which hold a closed-world assumption, i.e., where KGs are fixed and new entities cannot be easily added, in the present work we relax this assumption and propose a new open-world KGC task. As a first attempt to solve this task we introduce an open-world KGC model called ConMask. This model learns embeddings of the entity's name and parts of its text-description to connect unseen entities to the KG. To mitigate the presence of noisy text descriptions, ConMask uses a relationship-dependent content masking to extract relevant snippets and then trains a fully convolutional neural network to fuse the extracted snippets with entities in the KG. Experiments on large data sets, both old and new, show that ConMask performs well in the open-world KGC task and even outperforms existing KGC models on the standard closed-world KGC task.

SIJul 1, 2017
Predicting User-Interactions on Reddit

Maria Glenski, Tim Weninger

In order to keep up with the demand of curating the deluge of crowd-sourced content, social media platforms leverage user interaction feedback to make decisions about which content to display, highlight, and hide. User interactions such as likes, votes, clicks, and views are assumed to be a proxy of a content's quality, popularity, or news-worthiness. In this paper we ask: how predictable are the interactions of a user on social media? To answer this question we recorded the clicking, browsing, and voting behavior of 186 Reddit users over a year. We present interesting descriptive statistics about their combined 339,270 interactions, and we find that relatively simple models are able to predict users' individual browse- or vote-interactions with reasonable accuracy.

SIMar 15, 2017
Consumers and Curators: Browsing and Voting Patterns on Reddit

Maria Glenski, Corey Pennycuff, Tim Weninger

As crowd-sourced curation of news and information become the norm, it is important to understand not only how individuals consume information through social news Web sites, but also how they contribute to their ranking systems. In the present work, we introduce and make available a new dataset containing the activity logs that recorded all activity for 309 Reddit users for one year. Using this newly collected data, we present findings that highlight the browsing and voting behavior of the study's participants. We find that most users do not read the article that they vote on, and that, in total, 73% of posts were rated (ie, upvoted or downvoted) without first viewing the content. We also show evidence of cognitive fatigue in the browsing sessions of users that are most likely to vote.

SINov 28, 2016
Forward Backward Similarity Search in Knowledge Networks

Baoxu Shi, Lin Yang, Tim Weninger

Similarity search is a fundamental problem in social and knowledge networks like GitHub, DBLP, Wikipedia, etc. Existing network similarity measures are limited because they only consider similarity from the perspective of the query node. However, due to the complicated topology of real-world networks, ignoring the preferences of target nodes often results in odd or unintuitive performance. In this work, we propose a dual perspective similarity metric called Forward Backward Similarity (FBS) that efficiently computes topological similarity from the perspective of both the query node and the perspective of candidate nodes. The effectiveness of our method is evaluated by traditional quantitative ranking metrics and large-scale human judgement on four large real world networks. The proposed method matches human preference and outperforms other similarity search algorithms on community overlap and link prediction. Finally, we demonstrate top-5 rankings for five famous researchers on an academic collaboration network to illustrate how our approach captures semantics more intuitively than other approaches.

AINov 16, 2016
ProjE: Embedding Projection for Knowledge Graph Completion

Baoxu Shi, Tim Weninger

With the large volume of new information created every day, determining the validity of information in a knowledge graph and filling in its missing parts are crucial tasks for many researchers and practitioners. To address this challenge, a number of knowledge graph completion methods have been developed using low-dimensional graph embeddings. Although researchers continue to improve these models using an increasingly complex feature space, we show that simple changes in the architecture of the underlying model can outperform state-of-the-art models without the need for complex feature engineering. In this work, we present a shared variable neural network model called ProjE that fills-in missing information in a knowledge graph by learning joint embeddings of the knowledge graph's entities and edges, and through subtle, but important, changes to the standard loss function. In doing so, ProjE has a parameter size that is smaller than 11 out of 15 existing methods while performing $37\%$ better than the current-best method on standard datasets. We also show, via a new fact checking task, that ProjE is capable of accurately determining the veracity of many declarative statements.

SIAug 10, 2016
Growing Graphs with Hyperedge Replacement Graph Grammars

Salvador Aguiñaga, Rodrigo Palacios, David Chiang et al.

Discovering the underlying structures present in large real world graphs is a fundamental scientific problem. In this paper we show that a graph's clique tree can be used to extract a hyperedge replacement grammar. If we store an ordering from the extraction process, the extracted graph grammar is guaranteed to generate an isomorphic copy of the original graph. Or, a stochastic application of the graph grammar rules can be used to quickly create random graphs. In experiments on large real world networks, we show that random graphs, generated from extracted graph grammars, exhibit a wide range of properties that are very similar to the original graphs. In addition to graph properties like degree or eigenvector centrality, what a graph "looks like" ultimately depends on small details in local graph substructures that are difficult to define at a global level. We show that our generative graph model is able to preserve these local substructures when generating new graphs and performs well on new and difficult tests of model robustness.

SIJun 20, 2016
Rating Effects on Social News Posts and Comments

Maria Glenski, Tim Weninger

At a time when information seekers first turn to digital sources for news and opinion, it is critical that we understand the role that social media plays in human behavior. This is especially true when information consumers also act as information producers and editors through their online activity. In order to better understand the effects that editorial ratings have on online human behavior, we report the results of a two large-scale in-vivo experiments in social media. We find that small, random rating manipulations on social media posts and comments created significant changes in downstream ratings resulting in significantly different final outcomes. We found positive herding effects for positive treatments on posts, increasing the final rating by 11.02% on average, but not for positive treatments on comments. Contrary to the results of related work, we found negative herding effects for negative treatments on posts and comments, decreasing the final ratings on average, of posts by 5.15% and of comments by 37.4%. Compared to the control group, the probability of reaching a high rating (>=2000) for posts is increased by 24.6% when posts receive the positive treatment and for comments is decreased by 46.6% when comments receive the negative treatment.

SEApr 25, 2016
Ozy: A General Orchestration Container

Glenn Osborne, Tim Weninger

Service-Oriented Computing is a paradigm that uses services as building blocks for building distributed applications. The primary motivation for orchestrating services in the cloud used to be distributed business processes, which drove the standardization of the Business Process Execution Language (BPEL) and its central notion that a service is a business process. In recent years, there has been a transition towards other motivations for orchestrating services in the cloud, {\em e.g.}, XaaS, RMAD. Although it is theoretically possible to make all of those services into WSDL/SOAP services, it would be too complicated and costly for industry adoption. Therefore, the central notion that a service is a business process is too restrictive. Instead, we view a service as a technology neutral, loosely coupled, location transparent procedure. With these ideas in mind, we introduce a new approach to services orchestration: Ozy, a general orchestration container. We define this new approach in terms of existing technology, and we show that the Ozy container relaxes many traditional constraints and allows for simpler, more feature-rich applications.

AIJan 4, 2016
Scalable Models for Computing Hierarchies in Information Networks

Baoxu Shi, Tim Weninger

Information hierarchies are organizational structures that often used to organize and present large and complex information as well as provide a mechanism for effective human navigation. Fortunately, many statistical and computational models exist that automatically generate hierarchies; however, the existing approaches do not consider linkages in information {\em networks} that are increasingly common in real-world scenarios. Current approaches also tend to present topics as an abstract probably distribution over words, etc rather than as tangible nodes from the original network. Furthermore, the statistical techniques present in many previous works are not yet capable of processing data at Web-scale. In this paper we present the Hierarchical Document Topic Model (HDTM), which uses a distributed vertex-programming process to calculate a nonparametric Bayesian generative model. Experiments on three medium size data sets and the entire Wikipedia dataset show that HDTM can infer accurate hierarchies even over large information networks.

DBOct 20, 2015
Discriminative Predicate Path Mining for Fact Checking in Knowledge Graphs

Baoxu Shi, Tim Weninger

Traditional fact checking by experts and analysts cannot keep pace with the volume of newly created information. It is important and necessary, therefore, to enhance our ability to computationally determine whether some statement of fact is true or false. We view this problem as a link-prediction task in a knowledge graph, and present a discriminative path-based method for fact checking in knowledge graphs that incorporates connectivity, type information, and predicate interactions. Given a statement S of the form (subject, predicate, object), for example, (Chicago, capitalOf, Illinois), our approach mines discriminative paths that alternatively define the generalized statement (U.S. city, predicate, U.S. state) and uses the mined rules to evaluate the veracity of statement S. We evaluate our approach by examining thousands of claims related to history, geography, biology, and politics using a public, million node knowledge graph extracted from Wikipedia and PubMedDB. Not only does our approach significantly outperform related models, we also find that the discriminative predicate path model is easily interpretable and provides sensible reasons for the final determination.

IRAug 17, 2015
Web Content Extraction - a Meta-Analysis of its Past and Thoughts on its Future

Tim Weninger, Rodrigo Palacios, Valter Crescenzi et al.

In this paper, we present a meta-analysis of several Web content extraction algorithms, and make recommendations for the future of content extraction on the Web. First, we find that nearly all Web content extractors do not consider a very large, and growing, portion of modern Web pages. Second, it is well understood that wrapper induction extractors tend to break as the Web changes; heuristic/feature engineering extractors were thought to be immune to a Web site's evolution, but we find that this is not the case: heuristic content extractor performance also tends to degrade over time due to the evolution of Web site forms and practices. We conclude with recommendations for future work that address these and other findings.

SIJun 5, 2015
Random Voting Effects in Social-Digital Spaces: A case study of Reddit Post Submissions

Maria Glenski, Thomas J. Johnston, Tim Weninger

At a time when information seekers first turn to digital sources for news and opinion, it is critical that we understand the role that social media plays in human behavior. This is especially true when information consumers also act as information producers and editors by their online activity. In order to better understand the effects that editorial ratings have on online human behavior, we report the results of a large-scale in-vivo experiment in social media. We find that small, random rating manipulations on social media submissions created significant changes in downstream ratings resulting in significantly different final outcomes. Positive treatment resulted in a positive effect that increased the final rating by 11.02% on average. Compared to the control group, positive treatment also increased the probability of reaching a high rating (>=2000) by 24.6%. Contrary to the results of related work we also find that negative treatment resulted in a negative effect that decreased the final rating by 5.15% on average.