Sina Baghali

Sina Baghali, Zhaomiao Guo, Samiul Hasan

The increasing market penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) may change the travel behavior of drivers and pose a significant electricity demand on the power system. Since the electricity demand depends on the travel behavior of EVs, which are inherently uncertain, the forecasting of daily charging demand (CD) will be a challenging task. In this paper, we use the recorded GPS data of EVs and conventional gasoline-powered vehicles from the same city to investigate the potential shift in the travel behavior of drivers from conventional vehicles to EVs and forecast the spatiotemporal patterns of daily CD. Our analysis reveals that the travel behavior of EVs and conventional vehicles are similar. Also, the forecasting results indicate that the developed models can generate accurate spatiotemporal patterns of the daily CD.

Sina Baghali, Samiul Hasan, Zhaomiao Guo

The increasing market penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) may pose significant electricity demand on power systems. This electricity demand is affected by the inherent uncertainties of EVs' travel behavior that makes forecasting the daily charging demand (CD) very challenging. In this project, we use the National House Hold Survey (NHTS) data to form sequences of trips, and develop machine learning models to predict the parameters of the next trip of the drivers, including trip start time, end time, and distance. These parameters are later used to model the temporal charging behavior of EVs. The simulation results show that the proposed modeling can effectively estimate the daily CD pattern based on travel behavior of EVs, and simple machine learning techniques can forecast the travel parameters with acceptable accuracy.