Niklas Roßberg

Marion Neumeier, Niklas Roßberg, Michael Botsch et al.

Accurate and uncertainty-aware trajectory prediction remains a core challenge for autonomous driving, driven by complex multi-agent interactions, diverse scene contexts and the inherently stochastic nature of future motion. Diffusion-based generative models have recently shown strong potential for capturing multimodal futures, yet existing approaches such as cVMD suffer from slow sampling, limited exploitation of generative diversity and brittle scenario encodings. This work introduces cVMDx, an enhanced diffusion-based trajectory prediction framework that improves efficiency, robustness and multimodal predictive capability. Through DDIM sampling, cVMDx achieves up to a 100x reduction in inference time, enabling practical multi-sample generation for uncertainty estimation. A fitted Gaussian Mixture Model further provides tractable multimodal predictions from the generated trajectories. In addition, a CVQ-VAE variant is evaluated for scenario encoding. Experiments on the publicly available highD dataset show that cVMDx achieves higher accuracy and significantly improved efficiency over cVMD, enabling fully stochastic, multimodal trajectory prediction.

Niklas Roßberg, Marion Neumeier, Sinan Hasirlioglu et al.

The ability to operate safely in increasingly complex traffic scenarios is a fundamental requirement for Automated Driving Systems (ADS). Ensuring the safe release of ADS functions necessitates a precise understanding of the occurring traffic scenarios. To support this objective, this work introduces a pipeline for traffic scenario clustering and the analysis of scenario category completeness. The Clustering Vector Quantized - Variational Autoencoder (CVQ-VAE) is employed for the clustering of highway traffic scenarios and utilized to create various catalogs with differing numbers of traffic scenario categories. Subsequently, the impact of the number of categories on the completeness considerations of the traffic scenario categories is analyzed. The results show an outperforming clustering performance compared to previous work. The trade-off between cluster quality and the amount of required data to maintain completeness is discussed based on the publicly available highD dataset.