Jiangtao Liu

Nicholas Kraabel, Jiangtao Liu, Yuchen Bian et al.

Stewarding natural resources, mitigating floods, droughts, wildfires, and landslides, and meeting growing demands require models that can predict climate-driven land-surface responses and human feedback with high accuracy. Traditional impact models, whether process-based, statistical, or machine learning, struggle with spatial generalization due to limited observations and concept drift. Recently proposed vision foundation models trained on satellite imagery demand massive compute and are ill-suited for dynamic land-surface prediction. We introduce StefaLand, a generative spatiotemporal earth foundation model centered on landscape interactions. StefaLand improves predictions on four tasks and five datasets: streamflow, soil moisture, and soil composition, compared to prior state-of-the-art. Results highlight its ability to generalize across diverse, data-scarce regions and support broad land-surface applications. The model builds on a masked autoencoder backbone that learns deep joint representations of landscape attributes, with a location-aware architecture fusing static and time-series inputs, attribute-based representations that drastically reduce compute, and residual fine-tuning adapters that enhance transfer. While inspired by prior methods, their alignment with geoscience and integration in one model enables robust performance on dynamic land-surface tasks. StefaLand can be pretrained and finetuned on academic compute yet outperforms state-of-the-art baselines and even fine-tuned vision foundation models. To our knowledge, this is the first geoscience land-surface foundation model that demonstrably improves dynamic land-surface interaction predictions and supports diverse downstream applications.

Haoyu Ji, Yalan Song, Tadd Bindas et al.

To track rapid changes within our water sector, Global Water Models (GWMs) need to realistically represent hydrologic systems' response patterns - such as baseflow fraction - but are hindered by their limited ability to learn from data. Here we introduce a high-resolution physics-embedded big-data-trained model as a breakthrough in reliably capturing characteristic hydrologic response patterns ('signatures') and their shifts. By realistically representing the long-term water balance, the model revealed widespread shifts - up to ~20% over 20 years - in fundamental green-blue-water partitioning and baseflow ratios worldwide. Shifts in these response patterns, previously considered static, contributed to increasing flood risks in northern mid-latitudes, heightening water supply stresses in southern subtropical regions, and declining freshwater inputs to many European estuaries, all with ecological implications. With more accurate simulations at monthly and daily scales than current operational systems, this next-generation model resolves large, nonlinear seasonal runoff responses to rainfall ('elasticity') and streamflow flashiness in semi-arid and arid regions. These metrics highlight regions with management challenges due to large water supply variability and high climate sensitivity, but also provide tools to forecast seasonal water availability. This capability newly enables global-scale models to deliver reliable and locally relevant insights for water management.

Amirmoez Jamaat, Yalan Song, Farshid Rahmani et al.

Data assimilation (DA) enables hydrologic models to update their internal states using near-real-time observations for more accurate forecasts. With deep neural networks like long short-term memory (LSTM), using either lagged observations as inputs (called "data integration") or variational DA has shown success in improving forecasts. However, it is unclear which methods are performant or optimal for physics-informed machine learning ("differentiable") models, which represent only a small amount of physically-meaningful states while using deep networks to supply parameters or missing processes. Here we developed variational DA methods for differentiable models, including optimizing adjusters for just precipitation data, just model internal hydrological states, or both. Our results demonstrated that differentiable streamflow models using the CAMELS dataset can benefit strongly and equivalently from variational DA as LSTM, with one-day lead time median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) elevated from 0.75 to 0.82. The resulting forecast matched or outperformed LSTM with DA in the eastern, northwestern, and central Great Plains regions of the conterminous United States. Both precipitation and state adjusters were needed to achieve these results, with the latter being substantially more effective on its own, and the former adding moderate benefits for high flows. Our DA framework does not need systematic training data and could serve as a practical DA scheme for whole river networks.

Wen-Ping Tsai, Dapeng Feng, Ming Pan et al.

The behaviors and skills of models in many geosciences (e.g., hydrology and ecosystem sciences) strongly depend on spatially-varying parameters that need calibration. A well-calibrated model can reasonably propagate information from observations to unobserved variables via model physics, but traditional calibration is highly inefficient and results in non-unique solutions. Here we propose a novel differentiable parameter learning (dPL) framework that efficiently learns a global mapping between inputs (and optionally responses) and parameters. Crucially, dPL exhibits beneficial scaling curves not previously demonstrated to geoscientists: as training data increases, dPL achieves better performance, more physical coherence, and better generalizability (across space and uncalibrated variables), all with orders-of-magnitude lower computational cost. We demonstrate examples that learned from soil moisture and streamflow, where dPL drastically outperformed existing evolutionary and regionalization methods, or required only ~12.5% of the training data to achieve similar performance. The generic scheme promotes the integration of deep learning and process-based models, without mandating reimplementation.