Pei Liu

Junlan Chen, Pei Liu, Zihao Zhang et al.

Trajectory prediction methods have been widely applied in autonomous driving technologies. Although the overall performance accuracy of trajectory prediction is relatively high, the lack of trajectory data in critical scenarios in the training data leads to the long-tail phenomenon. Normally, the trajectories of the tail data are more critical and more difficult to predict and may include rare scenarios such as crashes. To solve this problem, we extracted the trajectory data from real-world crash scenarios, which contain more long-tail data. Meanwhile, based on the trajectory data in this scenario, we integrated graph-based risk information and diffusion with transformer and proposed the Risk-Informed Diffusion Transformer (RI-DiT) trajectory prediction method. Extensive experiments were conducted on trajectory data in the real-world crash scenario, and the results show that the algorithm we proposed has good performance. When predicting the data of the tail 10\% (Top 10\%), the minADE and minFDE indicators are 0.016/2.667 m. At the same time, we showed the trajectory conditions of different long-tail distributions. The distribution of trajectory data is closer to the tail, the less smooth the trajectory is. Through the trajectory data in real-world crash scenarios, Our work expands the methods to overcome the long-tail challenges in trajectory prediction. Our method, RI-DiT, integrates inverse time to collision (ITTC) and the feature of traffic flow, which can predict long-tail trajectories more accurately and improve the safety of autonomous driving systems.

Junlan Chen, Qijie He, Pei Liu et al.

Crash frequency modelling analyzes the impact of factors like traffic volume, road geometry, and environmental conditions on crash occurrences. Inaccurate predictions can distort our understanding of these factors, leading to misguided policies and wasted resources, which jeopardize traffic safety. A key challenge in crash frequency modelling is the prevalence of excessive zero observations, caused by underreporting, the low probability of crashes, and high data collection costs. These zero observations often reduce model accuracy and introduce bias, complicating safety decision making. While existing approaches, such as statistical methods, data aggregation, and resampling, attempt to address this issue, they either rely on restrictive assumptions or result in significant information loss, distorting crash data. To overcome these limitations, we propose a hybrid VAE-Diffusion neural network, designed to reduce zero observations and handle the complexities of multi-type tabular crash data (count, ordinal, nominal, and real-valued variables). We assess the synthetic data quality generated by this model through metrics like similarity, accuracy, diversity, and structural consistency, and compare its predictive performance against traditional statistical models. Our findings demonstrate that the hybrid VAE-Diffusion model outperforms baseline models across all metrics, offering a more effective approach to augmenting crash data and improving the accuracy of crash frequency predictions. This study highlights the potential of synthetic data to enhance traffic safety by improving crash frequency modelling and informing better policy decisions.