George Price

Nima Safari, George Price, Chi Yung Chung

The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method and its variants have been extensively employed in the load and renewable forecasting literature. Using this multiresolution decomposition, time series (TS) related to the historical load and renewable generation are decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are less non-stationary and non-linear. As such, the prediction of the components can theoretically be carried out with notably higher precision. The EMD method is prone to several issues, including modal aliasing and boundary effect problems, but the TS decomposition-based load and renewable generation forecasting literature primarily focuses on comparing the performance of different decomposition approaches from the forecast accuracy standpoint; as a result, these problems have rarely been scrutinized. Underestimating these issues can lead to poor performance of the forecast model in real-time applications. This paper examines these issues and their importance in the model development stage. Using real-world data, EMD-based models are presented, and the impact of the boundary effect is illustrated.

Colby Wise, Vassilis N. Ioannidis, Miguel Romero Calvo et al.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has claimed the lives of over 350,000 people and infected more than 6 million people worldwide. Several search engines have surfaced to provide researchers with additional tools to find and retrieve information from the rapidly growing corpora on COVID-19. These engines lack extraction and visualization tools necessary to retrieve and interpret complex relations inherent to scientific literature. Moreover, because these engines mainly rely upon semantic information, their ability to capture complex global relationships across documents is limited, which reduces the quality of similarity-based article recommendations for users. In this work, we present the COVID-19 Knowledge Graph (CKG), a heterogeneous graph for extracting and visualizing complex relationships between COVID-19 scientific articles. The CKG combines semantic information with document topological information for the application of similar document retrieval. The CKG is constructed using the latent schema of the data, and then enriched with biomedical entity information extracted from the unstructured text of articles using scalable AWS technologies to form relations in the graph. Finally, we propose a document similarity engine that leverages low-dimensional graph embeddings from the CKG with semantic embeddings for similar article retrieval. Analysis demonstrates the quality of relationships in the CKG and shows that it can be used to uncover meaningful information in COVID-19 scientific articles. The CKG helps power www.cord19.aws and is publicly available.

Parminder Bhatia, Lan Liu, Kristjan Arumae et al.

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been declared as a pandemic by WHO with thousands of cases being reported each day. Numerous scientific articles are being published on the disease raising the need for a service which can organize, and query them in a reliable fashion. To support this cause we present AWS CORD-19 Search (ACS), a public, COVID-19 specific, neural search engine that is powered by several machine learning systems to support natural language based searches. ACS with capabilities such as document ranking, passage ranking, question answering and topic classification provides a scalable solution to COVID-19 researchers and policy makers in their search and discovery for answers to high priority scientific questions. We present a quantitative evaluation and qualitative analysis of the system against other leading COVID-19 search platforms. ACS is top performing across these systems yielding quality results which we detail with relevant examples in this work.