Xiaoqi Liu

Nimish Awalgaonkar, Ilias Bilionis, Xiaoqi Liu et al.

Thermal preferences vary from person to person and may change over time. The main objective of this paper is to sequentially pose intelligent queries to occupants in order to optimally learn the indoor air temperature values which maximize their satisfaction. Our central hypothesis is that an occupant's preference relation over indoor air temperature can be described using a scalar function of these temperatures, which we call the "occupant's thermal utility function". Information about an occupant's preference over these temperatures is available to us through their response to thermal preference queries : "prefer warmer," "prefer cooler" and "satisfied" which we interpret as statements about the derivative of their utility function, i.e. the utility function is "increasing", "decreasing" and "constant" respectively. We model this hidden utility function using a Gaussian process prior with built-in unimodality constraint, i.e., the utility function has a unique maximum, and we train this model using Bayesian inference. This permits an expected improvement based selection of next preference query to pose to the occupant, which takes into account both exploration (sampling from areas of high uncertainty) and exploitation (sampling from areas which are likely to offer an improvement over current best observation). We use this framework to sequentially design experiments and illustrate its benefits by showing that it requires drastically fewer observations to learn the maximally preferred temperature values as compared to other methods. This framework is an important step towards the development of intelligent HVAC systems which would be able to respond to occupants' personalized thermal comfort needs. In order to encourage the use of our PE framework and ensure reproducibility in results, we publish an implementation of our work named GPPrefElicit as an open-source package in Python.

Xiaoqi Liu, Dorian Baudry, Julian Zimmert et al.

Bandit Convex Optimization is a fundamental class of sequential decision-making problems, where the learner selects actions from a continuous domain and observes a loss (but not its gradient) at only one point per round. We study this problem in non-stationary environments, and aim to minimize the regret under three standard measures of non-stationarity: the number of switches $S$ in the comparator sequence, the total variation $Δ$ of the loss functions, and the path-length $P$ of the comparator sequence. We propose a polynomial-time algorithm, Tilted Exponentially Weighted Average with Sleeping Experts (TEWA-SE), which adapts the sleeping experts framework from online convex optimization to the bandit setting. For strongly convex losses, we prove that TEWA-SE is minimax-optimal with respect to known $S$ and $Δ$ by establishing matching upper and lower bounds. By equipping TEWA-SE with the Bandit-over-Bandit framework, we extend our analysis to environments with unknown non-stationarity measures. For general convex losses, we introduce a second algorithm, clipped Exploration by Optimization (cExO), based on exponential weights over a discretized action space. While not polynomial-time computable, this method achieves minimax-optimal regret with respect to known $S$ and $Δ$, and improves on the best existing bounds with respect to $P$.

Thanana Nuchkrua, Sudchai Boonto, Xiaoqi Liu

Deep stochastic state-space models enable Bayesian filtering in nonlinear, partially observed systems but typically assume a fixed latent structure. When this assumption is violated, parameter adaptation alone may result in persistent belief inconsistency. We introduce \emph{Cognitive Flexibility} (CF) as a representation-level operator that selects latent structures online via an innovation-based predictive score, while preserving the Bayesian filtering recursion. Structural mismatch is formalized as irreducible predictive inconsistency under fixed structure. The resulting belief--structure recursion is shown to be well posed, to exhibit a structural descent property, and to admit finite switching, with reduction to standard Bayesian filtering under correct specification. Experiments on latent-dynamics mismatch, observation-structure shifts, and well-specified regimes confirm that CF improves predictive accuracy under a mismatch while remaining non-intrusive when the model is correctly specified.

Gabriel Arpino, Xiaoqi Liu, Julia Gontarek et al.

We consider the problem of localizing change points in a generalized linear model (GLM), a model that covers many widely studied problems in statistical learning including linear, logistic, and rectified linear regression. We propose a novel and computationally efficient Approximate Message Passing (AMP) algorithm for estimating both the signals and the change point locations, and rigorously characterize its performance in the high-dimensional limit where the number of parameters $p$ is proportional to the number of samples $n$. This characterization is in terms of a state evolution recursion, which allows us to precisely compute performance measures such as the asymptotic Hausdorff error of our change point estimates, and allows us to tailor the algorithm to take advantage of any prior structural information on the signals and change points. Moreover, we show how our AMP iterates can be used to efficiently compute a Bayesian posterior distribution over the change point locations in the high-dimensional limit. We validate our theory via numerical experiments, and demonstrate the favorable performance of our estimators on both synthetic and real data in the settings of linear, logistic, and rectified linear regression.