Furong Zheng

Jiexia Ye, Juanjuan Zhao, Furong Zheng et al.

Short-term OD flow (i.e. the number of passenger traveling between stations) prediction is crucial to traffic management in metro systems. Due to the delayed effect in latest complete OD flow collection, complex spatiotemporal correlations of OD flows in high dimension, it is more challengeable than other traffic prediction tasks of time series. Existing methods need to be improved due to not fully utilizing the real-time passenger mobility data and not sufficiently modeling the implicit correlation of the mobility patterns between stations. In this paper, we propose a Completion based Adaptive Heterogeneous Graph Convolution Spatiotemporal Predictor. The novelty is mainly reflected in two aspects. The first is to model real-time mobility evolution by establishing the implicit correlation between observed OD flows and the prediction target OD flows in high dimension based on a key data-driven insight: the destination distributions of the passengers departing from a station are correlated with other stations sharing similar attributes (e.g. geographical location, region function). The second is to complete the latest incomplete OD flows by estimating the destination distribution of unfinished trips through considering the real-time mobility evolution and the time cost between stations, which is the base of time series prediction and can improve the model's dynamic adaptability. Extensive experiments on two real world metro datasets demonstrate the superiority of our model over other competitors with the biggest model performance improvement being nearly 4\%. In addition, the data complete framework we propose can be integrated into other models to improve their performance up to 2.1\%.

Jiexia Ye, Furong Zheng, Juanjuan Zhao et al.

Accurate traffic state prediction is the foundation of transportation control and guidance. It is very challenging due to the complex spatiotemporal dependencies in traffic data. Existing works cannot perform well for multi-step traffic prediction that involves long future time period. The spatiotemporal information dilution becomes serve when the time gap between input step and predicted step is large, especially when traffic data is not sufficient or noisy. To address this issue, we propose a multi-spatial graph convolution based Seq2Seq model. Our main novelties are three aspects: (1) We enrich the spatiotemporal information of model inputs by fusing multi-view features (time, location and traffic states) (2) We build multiple kinds of spatial correlations based on both prior knowledge and data-driven knowledge to improve model performance especially in insufficient or noisy data cases. (3) A spatiotemporal attention mechanism based on reachability knowledge is novelly designed to produce high-level features fed into decoder of Seq2Seq directly to ease information dilution. Our model is evaluated on two real world traffic datasets and achieves better performance than other competitors.