Gengze Xu

Zeyu Gan, Ruifeng Ren, Wei Yao et al.

The rapid emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) has precipitated a profound paradigm shift in Artificial Intelligence, delivering monumental engineering successes that increasingly impact modern society. However, a critical paradox persists within the current field: despite the empirical efficacy, our theoretical understanding of LLMs remains disproportionately nascent, forcing these systems to be treated largely as ``black boxes''. To address this theoretical fragmentation, this survey proposes a unified lifecycle-based taxonomy that organizes the research landscape into six distinct stages: Data Preparation, Model Preparation, Training, Alignment, Inference, and Evaluation. Within this framework, we provide a systematic review of the foundational theories and internal mechanisms driving LLM performance. Specifically, we analyze core theoretical issues such as the mathematical justification for data mixtures, the representational limits of various architectures, and the optimization dynamics of alignment algorithms. Moving beyond current best practices, we identify critical frontier challenges, including the theoretical limits of synthetic data self-improvement, the mathematical bounds of safety guarantees, and the mechanistic origins of emergent intelligence. By connecting empirical observations with rigorous scientific inquiry, this work provides a structured roadmap for transitioning LLM development from engineering heuristics toward a principled scientific discipline.

Wei Yao, Wang Zhaoyang, Gengze Xu et al.

The paradigm of Weak-to-Strong Generalization (W2SG) suggests that a pre-trained strong model can surpass its weak supervisor, yet the decisive role of pre-training remains theoretically and empirically under-explored. In this work, we identify pre-training as the essential prerequisite for the emergence of W2SG. Theoretically, we formalize the W2SG problem within a high-dimensional single-index model framework using spiked Gaussian data, modeling pre-training as a spectral initialization step. Building upon prior impossibility results regarding the failure of learning under random initialization, we prove that W2SG is achievable when pre-training provides a geometric warm start that places the model within an "effective region" characterized by a perturbed strong-convexity geometry. Within this region, we derive a rigorous generalization bound that naturally captures the optimization dynamics: an initial performance improvement followed by a saturation bottleneck dictated by the weak supervisor's bias. Empirically, we first validate all our assumptions and theoretical insights through controlled synthetic simulations. Finally, through a massive-scale evaluation of hundreds of intermediate pre-training checkpoints from large language models, we demonstrate that W2SG is not an innate capability but emerges via a phase transition tightly coupled with the progression of pre-training.

Gengze Xu, Wei Yao, Ziqiao Wang et al.

Weak-to-strong generalization (W2SG) refers to the phenomenon where a strong student model, trained on a dataset labeled by a weak teacher, ultimately outperforms the teacher on the target task. Recent studies attribute this performance gain to the prediction misfit between the student and teacher models. In this work, we theoretically investigate the emergence of W2SG through a generalized bias-variance decomposition of Bregman divergence. Specifically, we show that the expected population risk gap between the student and teacher is quantified by the expected misfit between the two models. While this aligns with previous results, our analysis removes several restrictive assumptions, most notably, the convexity of the student's hypothesis class, required in earlier works. Moreover, we show that W2SG is more likely to emerge when the student model approximates its posterior mean teacher, rather than mimicking an individual teacher. Using a concrete example, we demonstrate that if the student model size is sufficiently large, it can indeed converge to the posterior mean teacher in expectation. Our analysis also suggests that avoiding overfitting to the teacher's supervision and reducing the entropy of student's prediction further facilitate W2SG. In addition, we show that the reverse cross-entropy loss, unlike the standard forward cross-entropy, is less sensitive to the predictive uncertainty of the teacher. Finally, we empirically verify our theoretical insights and demonstrate that incorporating the reverse cross-entropy loss consistently improves student performance.

Wei Yao, Wenkai Yang, Gengze Xu et al.

Weak-to-strong generalization, where weakly supervised strong models outperform their weaker teachers, offers a promising approach to aligning superhuman models with human values. To deepen the understanding of this approach, we provide theoretical insights into its capabilities and limitations. First, in the classification setting, we establish upper and lower generalization error bounds for the strong model, identifying the primary limitations as stemming from the weak model's generalization error and the optimization objective itself. Additionally, we derive lower and upper bounds on the calibration error of the strong model. These theoretical bounds reveal two critical insights: (1) the weak model should demonstrate strong generalization performance and maintain well-calibrated predictions, and (2) the strong model's training process must strike a careful balance, as excessive optimization could undermine its generalization capability by over-relying on the weak supervision signals. Finally, in the regression setting, we extend the work of Charikar et al. (2024) to a loss function based on Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, offering guarantees that the strong student can outperform its weak teacher by at least the magnitude of their disagreement. We conduct sufficient experiments to validate our theory.

Wei Yao, Gengze Xu, Huayi Tang et al.

Weak-to-strong generalization (W2SG) has emerged as a promising paradigm for stimulating the capabilities of strong pre-trained models by leveraging supervision from weaker supervisors. To improve the performance of the strong model, existing methods often require additional weak models or complex procedures, leading to substantial computational and memory overhead. Motivated by the effectiveness of $f$-divergence loss in various machine learning domains, we introduce $f$-divergence as an information-theoretic loss function framework in W2SG. Our theoretical analysis reveals fundamental limitations and equivalence of different $f$-divergence losses in W2SG, supported by sample complexity bounds and information-theoretic insights. We empirically demonstrate that $f$-divergence loss, which generalizes widely-used metrics like KL divergence, effectively improves generalization and noise tolerance of the strong model in practice.