Yichun Hu

Mia Garrard, Hanson Wang, Ben Letham et al.

Many organizations measure treatment effects via an experimentation platform to evaluate the casual effect of product variations prior to full-scale deployment. However, standard experimentation platforms do not perform optimally for end user populations that exhibit heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs). Here we present a personalized experimentation framework, Personalized Experiments (PEX), which optimizes treatment group assignment at the user level via HTE modeling and sequential decision policy optimization to optimize multiple short-term and long-term outcomes simultaneously. We describe an end-to-end workflow that has proven to be successful in practice and can be readily implemented using open-source software.

Zixuan Hu, Xuantuo Huang, Yancheng Li et al.

Navigating under non-stationary environment shifts poses a critical challenge for a Vision-and-Language Navigation (VLN) agent deployed in the wild. Yet, existing Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) methods for VLN largely treat online adaptation as transient, isolated updates, leading to catastrophic forgetting and negative transfer. To overcome these issues, we propose Inter-Domain BridgE with Historical Assets (IDEA), a novel TTA framework that transforms adaptation into the accumulation and composition of assets. Specifically, IDEA introduces soft prompts optimized via a Fisher-guided weighting scheme to capture the transferable knowledge. These optimized prompts are then augmented with domain coordinates to form a dynamic asset library. Leveraging this library, IDEA constructs a cross-domain bridge by projecting the target domain onto the convex hull of historical knowledge. These designs form a complementary loop: the evolving library underpins bridge construction, while the bridge provides superior initialization to accelerate asset optimization. Extensive experiments across REVERIE, R2R, and R2R-CE benchmarks demonstrate the consistent superiority of IDEA over existing methods, showcasing its ability to enable training-free adaptation via asset sharing.

Zixuan Hu, Xiaotong Li, Shixiang Tang et al.

The remarkable success of pretrain-then-finetune paradigm has led to a proliferation of available pre-trained models for vision tasks. This surge presents a significant challenge in efficiently choosing the most suitable pre-trained models for downstream tasks. The critical aspect of this challenge lies in effectively predicting the model transferability by considering the underlying fine-tuning dynamics. Existing methods often model fine-tuning dynamics in feature space with linear transformations, which do not precisely align with the fine-tuning objective and fail to grasp the essential nonlinearity from optimization. To this end, we present LEAD, a finetuning-aligned approach based on the network output of logits. LEAD proposes a theoretical framework to model the optimization process and derives an ordinary differential equation (ODE) to depict the nonlinear evolution toward the final logit state. Additionally, we design a class-aware decomposition method to consider the varying evolution dynamics across classes and further ensure practical applicability. Integrating the closely aligned optimization objective and nonlinear modeling capabilities derived from the differential equation, our method offers a concise solution to effectively bridge the optimization gap in a single step, bypassing the lengthy fine-tuning process. The comprehensive experiments on 24 supervised and self-supervised pre-trained models across 10 downstream datasets demonstrate impressive performances and showcase its broad adaptability even in low-data scenarios.

Zixuan Hu, Yichun Hu, Xiaotong Li et al.

Wild Test-Time Adaptation (WTTA) is proposed to adapt a source model to unseen domains under extreme data scarcity and multiple shifts. Previous approaches mainly focused on sample selection strategies, while overlooking the fundamental problem on underlying optimization. Initially, we critically analyze the widely-adopted entropy minimization framework in WTTA and uncover its significant limitations in noisy optimization dynamics that substantially hinder adaptation efficiency. Through our analysis, we identify region confidence as a superior alternative to traditional entropy, however, its direct optimization remains computationally prohibitive for real-time applications. In this paper, we introduce a novel region-integrated method ReCAP that bypasses the lengthy process. Specifically, we propose a probabilistic region modeling scheme that flexibly captures semantic changes in embedding space. Subsequently, we develop a finite-to-infinite asymptotic approximation that transforms the intractable region confidence into a tractable and upper-bounded proxy. These innovations significantly unlock the overlooked potential dynamics in local region in a concise solution. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the consistent superiority of ReCAP over existing methods across various datasets and wild scenarios.

Yichun Hu, Nathan Kallus, Masatoshi Uehara

We study the regret of reinforcement learning from offline data generated by a fixed behavior policy in an infinite-horizon discounted Markov decision process (MDP). While existing analyses of common approaches, such as fitted $Q$-iteration (FQI), suggest a $O(1/\sqrt{n})$ convergence for regret, empirical behavior exhibits \emph{much} faster convergence. In this paper, we present a finer regret analysis that exactly characterizes this phenomenon by providing fast rates for the regret convergence. First, we show that given any estimate for the optimal quality function $Q^*$, the regret of the policy it defines converges at a rate given by the exponentiation of the $Q^*$-estimate's pointwise convergence rate, thus speeding it up. The level of exponentiation depends on the level of noise in the \emph{decision-making} problem, rather than the estimation problem. We establish such noise levels for linear and tabular MDPs as examples. Second, we provide new analyses of FQI and Bellman residual minimization to establish the correct pointwise convergence guarantees. As specific cases, our results imply $O(1/n)$ regret rates in linear cases and $\exp(-Ω(n))$ regret rates in tabular cases. We extend our findings to general function approximation by extending our results to regret guarantees based on $L_p$-convergence rates for estimating $Q^*$ rather than pointwise rates, where $L_2$ guarantees for nonparametric $Q^*$-estimation can be ensured under mild conditions.

Yichun Hu, Nathan Kallus, Xiaojie Mao

Incorporating side observations in decision making can reduce uncertainty and boost performance, but it also requires we tackle a potentially complex predictive relationship. While one may use off-the-shelf machine learning methods to separately learn a predictive model and plug it in, a variety of recent methods instead integrate estimation and optimization by fitting the model to directly optimize downstream decision performance. Surprisingly, in the case of contextual linear optimization, we show that the naive plug-in approach actually achieves regret convergence rates that are significantly faster than methods that directly optimize downstream decision performance. We show this by leveraging the fact that specific problem instances do not have arbitrarily bad near-dual-degeneracy. While there are other pros and cons to consider as we discuss and illustrate numerically, our results highlight a nuanced landscape for the enterprise to integrate estimation and optimization. Our results are overall positive for practice: predictive models are easy and fast to train using existing tools, simple to interpret, and, as we show, lead to decisions that perform very well.

Yichun Hu, Nathan Kallus

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are personalized, adaptive, multi-stage treatment plans that adapt treatment decisions both to an individual's initial features and to intermediate outcomes and features at each subsequent stage, which are affected by decisions in prior stages. Examples include personalized first- and second-line treatments of chronic conditions like diabetes, cancer, and depression, which adapt to patient response to first-line treatment, disease progression, and individual characteristics. While existing literature mostly focuses on estimating the optimal DTR from offline data such as from sequentially randomized trials, we study the problem of developing the optimal DTR in an online manner, where the interaction with each individual affect both our cumulative reward and our data collection for future learning. We term this the DTR bandit problem. We propose a novel algorithm that, by carefully balancing exploration and exploitation, is guaranteed to achieve rate-optimal regret when the transition and reward models are linear. We demonstrate our algorithm and its benefits both in synthetic experiments and in a case study of adaptive treatment of major depressive disorder using real-world data.

Yichun Hu, Nathan Kallus, Xiaojie Mao

We study a nonparametric contextual bandit problem where the expected reward functions belong to a Hölder class with smoothness parameter $β$. We show how this interpolates between two extremes that were previously studied in isolation: non-differentiable bandits ($β\leq1$), where rate-optimal regret is achieved by running separate non-contextual bandits in different context regions, and parametric-response bandits (satisfying $β=\infty$), where rate-optimal regret can be achieved with minimal or no exploration due to infinite extrapolatability. We develop a novel algorithm that carefully adjusts to all smoothness settings and we prove its regret is rate-optimal by establishing matching upper and lower bounds, recovering the existing results at the two extremes. In this sense, our work bridges the gap between the existing literature on parametric and non-differentiable contextual bandit problems and between bandit algorithms that exclusively use global or local information, shedding light on the crucial interplay of complexity and regret in contextual bandits.