Hans Olischläger

Lasse Elsemüller, Hans Olischläger, Marvin Schmitt et al.

Sensitivity analyses reveal the influence of various modeling choices on the outcomes of statistical analyses. While theoretically appealing, they are overwhelmingly inefficient for complex Bayesian models. In this work, we propose sensitivity-aware amortized Bayesian inference (SA-ABI), a multifaceted approach to efficiently integrate sensitivity analyses into simulation-based inference with neural networks. First, we utilize weight sharing to encode the structural similarities between alternative likelihood and prior specifications in the training process with minimal computational overhead. Second, we leverage the rapid inference of neural networks to assess sensitivity to data perturbations and preprocessing steps. In contrast to most other Bayesian approaches, both steps circumvent the costly bottleneck of refitting the model for each choice of likelihood, prior, or data set. Finally, we propose to use deep ensembles to detect sensitivity arising from unreliable approximation (e.g., due to model misspecification). We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in applied modeling problems, ranging from disease outbreak dynamics and global warming thresholds to human decision-making. Our results support sensitivity-aware inference as a default choice for amortized Bayesian workflows, automatically providing modelers with insights into otherwise hidden dimensions.

Lars Kühmichel, Jerry M. Huang, Valentin Pratz et al.

Modern Bayesian inference involves a mixture of computational methods for estimating, validating, and drawing conclusions from probabilistic models as part of principled workflows. An overarching motif of many Bayesian methods is that they are relatively slow, which often becomes prohibitive when fitting complex models to large data sets. Amortized Bayesian inference (ABI) offers a path to solving the computational challenges of Bayes. ABI trains neural networks on model simulations, rewarding users with rapid inference of any model-implied quantity, such as point estimates, likelihoods, or full posterior distributions. In this work, we present the Python library BayesFlow, Version 2.0, for general-purpose ABI. Along with direct posterior, likelihood, and ratio estimation, the software includes support for multiple popular deep learning backends, a rich collection of generative networks for sampling and density estimation, complete customization and high-level interfaces, as well as new capabilities for hyperparameter optimization, design optimization, and hierarchical modeling. Using a case study on dynamical system parameter estimation, combined with comparisons to similar software, we show that our streamlined, user-friendly workflow has strong potential to support broad adoption.

Peter Sorrenson, Lukas Lührs, Hans Olischläger et al.

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are powerful generative models widely used for learning interpretable latent spaces, quantifying uncertainty, and compressing data for downstream generative tasks. VAEs typically rely on diagonal Gaussian posteriors due to computational constraints. Using arguments grounded in differential geometry, we demonstrate inherent limitations in the representational capacity of diagonal covariance VAEs, as illustrated by explicit low-dimensional examples. In response, we show that a regularized variant of the recently introduced Free-form Injective Flow (FIF) can be interpreted as a VAE featuring a highly flexible, implicitly defined posterior. Crucially, this regularization yields a posterior equivalent to a full Gaussian covariance distribution, yet maintains computational costs comparable to standard diagonal covariance VAEs. Experiments on image datasets validate our approach, demonstrating that incorporating full covariance substantially improves model likelihood.