Pedro Vilanova

Luis Espath, Sebastian Krumscheid, Raúl Tempone et al.

In this study, we demonstrate that the norm test and inner product/orthogonality test presented in \cite{Bol18} are equivalent in terms of the convergence rates associated with Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) methods if $ε^2=θ^2+ν^2$ with specific choices of $θ$ and $ν$. Here, $ε$ controls the relative statistical error of the norm of the gradient while $θ$ and $ν$ control the relative statistical error of the gradient in the direction of the gradient and in the direction orthogonal to the gradient, respectively. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the inner product/orthogonality test can be as inexpensive as the norm test in the best case scenario if $θ$ and $ν$ are optimally selected, but the inner product/orthogonality test will never be more computationally affordable than the norm test if $ε^2=θ^2+ν^2$. Finally, we present two stochastic optimization problems to illustrate our results.

Christian Bayer, Alvaro Moraes, Raul Tempone et al.

In this work, we present an extension to the context of Stochastic Reaction Networks (SRNs) of the forward-reverse representation introduced in "Simulation of forward-reverse stochastic representations for conditional diffusions", a 2014 paper by Bayer and Schoenmakers. We apply this stochastic representation in the computation of efficient approximations of expected values of functionals of SNR bridges, i.e., SRNs conditioned to its values in the extremes of given time-intervals. We then employ this SNR bridge-generation technique to the statistical inference problem of approximating the reaction propensities based on discretely observed data. To this end, we introduce a two-phase iterative inference method in which, during phase I, we solve a set of deterministic optimization problems where the SRNs are replaced by their reaction-rate Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) approximation; then, during phase II, we apply the Monte Carlo version of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm starting from the phase I output. By selecting a set of over dispersed seeds as initial points for phase I, the output of parallel runs from our two-phase method is a cluster of approximate maximum likelihood estimates. Our results are illustrated by numerical examples.

Alvaro Moraes, Raul Tempone, Pedro Vilanova

In this work, we extend the hybrid Chernoff tau-leap method to the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) setting. Inspired by the work of Anderson and Higham on the tau-leap MLMC method with uniform time steps, we develop a novel algorithm that is able to couple two hybrid Chernoff tau-leap paths at different levels. Using dual-weighted residual expansion techniques, we also develop a new way to estimate the variance of the difference of two consecutive levels and the bias. This is crucial because the computational work required to stabilize the coefficient of variation of the sample estimators of both quantities is often unaffordable for the deepest levels of the MLMC hierarchy. Our method bounds the global computational error to be below a prescribed tolerance, $TOL$, within a given confidence level. This is achieved with nearly optimal computational work. Indeed, the computational complexity of our method is of order $\mathcal{O}\left(TOL^{-2}\right)$, the same as with an exact method, but with a smaller constant. Our numerical examples show substantial gains with respect to the previous single-level approach and the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm.

Hamidou Tembine, Raul Tempone, Pedro Vilanova

In this paper we study iterative procedures for stationary equilibria in games with large number of players. Most of learning algorithms for games with continuous action spaces are limited to strict contraction best reply maps in which the Banach-Picard iteration converges with geometrical convergence rate. When the best reply map is not a contraction, Ishikawa-based learning is proposed. The algorithm is shown to behave well for Lipschitz continuous and pseudo-contractive maps. However, the convergence rate is still unsatisfactory. Several acceleration techniques are presented. We explain how cognitive users can improve the convergence rate based only on few number of measurements. The methodology provides nice properties in mean field games where the payoff function depends only on own-action and the mean of the mean-field (first moment mean-field games). A learning framework that exploits the structure of such games, called, mean-field learning, is proposed. The proposed mean-field learning framework is suitable not only for games but also for non-convex global optimization problems. Then, we introduce mean-field learning without feedback and examine the convergence to equilibria in beauty contest games, which have interesting applications in financial markets. Finally, we provide a fully distributed mean-field learning and its speedup versions for satisfactory solution in wireless networks. We illustrate the convergence rate improvement with numerical examples.