Juan Lavista Ferres

Syed Waqas Zamir, Wassim Hamidouche, Boulbaba Ben Amor et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit strong multilingual capabilities, yet remain fundamentally constrained by the severe imbalance in global language resources. While over 7,000 languages are spoken worldwide, only a small subset (fewer than 100) has sufficient digital presence to meaningfully influence modern LLM training. This disparity leads to systematic underperformance, cultural misalignment, and limited accessibility for speakers of low-resource and extreme-low-resource languages. To address this gap, we introduce Bring Your Own Language (BYOL), a unified framework for scalable, language-aware LLM development tailored to each language's digital footprint. BYOL begins with a language resource classification that maps languages into four tiers (Extreme-Low, Low, Mid, High) using curated web-scale corpora, and uses this classification to select the appropriate integration pathway. For low-resource languages, we propose a full-stack data refinement and expansion pipeline that combines corpus cleaning, synthetic text generation, continual pretraining, and supervised finetuning. Applied to Chichewa and Maori, this pipeline yields language-specific LLMs that achieve approximately 12 percent average improvement over strong multilingual baselines across 12 benchmarks, while preserving English and multilingual capabilities via weight-space model merging. For extreme-low-resource languages, we introduce a translation-mediated inclusion pathway, and show on Inuktitut that a tailored machine translation system improves over a commercial baseline by 4 BLEU, enabling high-accuracy LLM access when direct language modeling is infeasible. Finally, we release human-translated versions of the Global MMLU-Lite benchmark in Chichewa, Maori, and Inuktitut, and make our codebase and models publicly available at https://github.com/microsoft/byol .

Girmaw Abebe Tadesse, Titien Bartette, Andrew Hassanali et al.

Looting at archaeological sites poses a severe risk to cultural heritage, yet monitoring thousands of remote locations remains operationally difficult. We present a scalable and satellite-based pipeline to detect looted archaeological sites, using PlanetScope monthly mosaics (4.7m/pixel) and a curated dataset of 1,943 archaeological sites in Afghanistan (898 looted, 1,045 preserved) with multi-year imagery (2016--2023) and site-footprint masks. We compare (i) end-to-end CNN classifiers trained on raw RGB patches and (ii) traditional machine learning (ML) trained on handcrafted spectral/texture features and embeddings from recent remote-sensing foundation models. Results indicate that ImageNet-pretrained CNNs combined with spatial masking reach an F1 score of 0.926, clearly surpassing the strongest traditional ML setup, which attains an F1 score of 0.710 using SatCLIP-V+RF+Mean, i.e., location and vision embeddings fed into a Random Forest with mean-based temporal aggregation. Ablation studies demonstrate that ImageNet pretraining (even in the presence of domain shift) and spatial masking enhance performance. In contrast, geospatial foundation model embeddings perform competitively with handcrafted features, suggesting that looting signatures are extremely localized. The repository is available at https://github.com/microsoft/looted_site_detection.

Mayana Pereira, Meghana Kshirsagar, Sumit Mukherjee et al.

Differentially private (DP) synthetic data sets are a solution for sharing data while preserving the privacy of individual data providers. Understanding the effects of utilizing DP synthetic data in end-to-end machine learning pipelines impacts areas such as health care and humanitarian action, where data is scarce and regulated by restrictive privacy laws. In this work, we investigate the extent to which synthetic data can replace real, tabular data in machine learning pipelines and identify the most effective synthetic data generation techniques for training and evaluating machine learning models. We investigate the impacts of differentially private synthetic data on downstream classification tasks from the point of view of utility as well as fairness. Our analysis is comprehensive and includes representatives of the two main types of synthetic data generation algorithms: marginal-based and GAN-based. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first that: (i) proposes a training and evaluation framework that does not assume that real data is available for testing the utility and fairness of machine learning models trained on synthetic data; (ii) presents the most extensive analysis of synthetic data set generation algorithms in terms of utility and fairness when used for training machine learning models; and (iii) encompasses several different definitions of fairness. Our findings demonstrate that marginal-based synthetic data generators surpass GAN-based ones regarding model training utility for tabular data. Indeed, we show that models trained using data generated by marginal-based algorithms can exhibit similar utility to models trained using real data. Our analysis also reveals that the marginal-based synthetic data generator MWEM PGM can train models that simultaneously achieve utility and fairness characteristics close to those obtained by models trained with real data.

Zalan Fabian, Zhongqi Miao, Chunyuan Li et al.

Due to deteriorating environmental conditions and increasing human activity, conservation efforts directed towards wildlife is crucial. Motion-activated camera traps constitute an efficient tool for tracking and monitoring wildlife populations across the globe. Supervised learning techniques have been successfully deployed to analyze such imagery, however training such techniques requires annotations from experts. Reducing the reliance on costly labelled data therefore has immense potential in developing large-scale wildlife tracking solutions with markedly less human labor. In this work we propose WildMatch, a novel zero-shot species classification framework that leverages multimodal foundation models. In particular, we instruction tune vision-language models to generate detailed visual descriptions of camera trap images using similar terminology to experts. Then, we match the generated caption to an external knowledge base of descriptions in order to determine the species in a zero-shot manner. We investigate techniques to build instruction tuning datasets for detailed animal description generation and propose a novel knowledge augmentation technique to enhance caption quality. We demonstrate the performance of WildMatch on a new camera trap dataset collected in the Magdalena Medio region of Colombia.

Akram Zaytar, Rohan Sawahn, Caleb Robinson et al.

We present ongoing research on agency primitives for GeoAI assistants -- core capabilities that connect Foundation models to the artifact-centric, human-in-the-loop workflows where GIS practitioners actually work. Despite advances in satellite image captioning, visual question answering, and promptable segmentation, these capabilities have not translated into productivity gains for practitioners who spend most of their time producing vector layers, raster maps, and cartographic products. The gap is not model capability alone but the absence of an agency layer that supports iterative collaboration. We propose a vocabulary of $9$ primitives for such a layer -- including navigation, perception, geo-referenced memory, and dual modeling -- along with a benchmark that measures human productivity. Our goal is a vocabulary that makes agentic assistance in GIS implementable, testable, and comparable.

Meghana Kshirsagar, Allen Nie, Ching-An Cheng et al.

We introduce RosettaSearch, an inference-time multi-objective optimization approach for protein sequence optimization. We use large language models (LLMs) as a generative optimizer within a search algorithm capable of controlled exploration and exploitation, using rewards computed from RosettaFold3, a structure prediction model. In a large-scale evaluation, we apply RosettaSearch to 400 suboptimal sequences generated by LigandMPNN (a state-of-the-art model trained for protein sequence design), recovering high-fidelity designs that LigandMPNN's single-pass decoding fails to produce. RosettaSearch's designs show improvements in structural fidelity metrics ranging between 18\% to 68\%, translating to a 2.5$\times$ improvement in design success rate. We observe that these gains in success rate are robust when RosettaSearch-designed sequences are evaluated with an independent structure prediction oracle (Chai-1) and generalize across two distinct LLM families (o4-mini and Gemini-3), with performance scaling consistently with reasoning capability. We further demonstrate that RosettaSearch improves sequence fidelity for ProteinMPNN-designed sequences on \textit{de novo} backbones from the Dayhoff atlas, showing that the approach generalizes beyond native protein structures to computationally generated backbones. We also demonstrate a multi-modal extension of RosettaSearch with vision-language models, where images of predicted protein structures are used as feedback to incorporate structural context to guide protein sequence generation. The sequence trajectories generated by our approach can be used as training data in sequence design models or in post-training and will be released along with the code and datasets upon publication.

Simone Fobi, Manuel Cardona, Elliott Collins et al.

This work presents an approach for combining household demographic and living standards survey questions with features derived from satellite imagery to predict the poverty rate of a region. Our approach utilizes visual features obtained from a single-step featurization method applied to freely available 10m/px Sentinel-2 surface reflectance satellite imagery. These visual features are combined with ten survey questions in a proxy means test (PMT) to estimate whether a household is below the poverty line. We show that the inclusion of visual features reduces the mean error in poverty rate estimates from 4.09% to 3.88% over a nationally representative out-of-sample test set. In addition to including satellite imagery features in proxy means tests, we propose an approach for selecting a subset of survey questions that are complementary to the visual features extracted from satellite imagery. Specifically, we design a survey variable selection approach guided by the full survey and image features and use the approach to determine the most relevant set of small survey questions to include in a PMT. We validate the choice of small survey questions in a downstream task of predicting the poverty rate using the small set of questions. This approach results in the best performance -- errors in poverty rate decrease from 4.09% to 3.71%. We show that extracted visual features encode geographic and urbanization differences between regions.

Amit Misra, Syed Waqas Zamir, Wassim Hamidouche et al.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is diffusing globally at unprecedented speed, but adoption remains uneven. Frontier Large Language Models (LLMs) are known to perform poorly on low-resource languages due to data scarcity. We hypothesize that this performance deficit reduces the utility of AI, thereby slowing adoption in Low-Resource Language Countries (LRLCs). To test this, we use a weighted regression model to isolate the language effect from socioeconomic and demographic factors, finding that LRLCs have a share of AI users that is approximately 20% lower relative to their baseline. These results indicate that linguistic accessibility is a significant, independent barrier to equitable AI diffusion.

Md Nasir, Tina Sederholm, Anshu Sharma et al.

Vulnerability and risk assessment of neighborhoods is essential for effective disaster preparedness. Existing traditional systems, due to dependency on time-consuming and cost-intensive field surveying, do not provide a scalable way to decipher warnings and assess the precise extent of the risk at a hyper-local level. In this work, machine learning was used to automate the process of identifying dwellings and their type to build a potentially more effective disaster vulnerability assessment system. First, satellite imageries of low-income settlements and vulnerable areas in India were used to identify 7 different dwelling types. Specifically, we formulated the dwelling type classification as a semantic segmentation task and trained a U-net based neural network model, namely TernausNet, with the data we collected. Then a risk score assessment model was employed, using the determined dwelling type along with an inundation model of the regions. The entire pipeline was deployed to multiple locations prior to natural hazards in India in 2020. Post hoc ground-truth data from those regions was collected to validate the efficacy of this model which showed promising performance. This work can aid disaster response organizations and communities at risk by providing household-level risk information that can inform preemptive actions.

Girmaw Abebe Tadesse, Titien Bartette, Andrew Hassanali et al.

Monitoring archaeological sites at scale is vital for protecting cultural heritage, yet pinpointing when disturbances occur remains difficult because visual cues are subtle and ground-truth data are sparse. We introduce WATCH, a framework for month-level change-event localization over PlanetScope satellite mosaics (2017-2024, 4.7 m/px) that supports three complementary scoring approaches: (i) Temporal Embedding Distance (TED), a training-free method that scores month-to-month deviations from a local temporal reference; (ii) Self-Supervised Change Detection (SSCD), an ensemble of reconstruction, forecasting, and latent-novelty signals; and (iii) a Weakly Supervised (WS) temporal localization model trained with sparse event-month labels. We benchmark WATCH on 1,943 archaeological sites in Afghanistan using embeddings from six foundation models (CLIP, GeoRSCLIP, SatMAE, Prithvi-EO-2.0, DINOv3, and Satlas-Pretrain) alongside a handcrafted spectral and texture baseline, and assess cross-regional generalization on sites in Syria, Turkey, Pakistan, and Egypt. The unsupervised approaches (TED, SSCD) consistently outperform the weakly supervised alternative. TED with SatMAE achieves the highest exact-month recall (55% at m=0), while TED with GeoRSCLIP, CLIP, or Satlas-Pretrain reaches 92.5% within a three-month tolerance (m=3). Handcrafted features remain competitive for exact-month detection under weak supervision. Our directional margin analysis reveals systematic temporal biases: SSCD paired with GeoRSCLIP or Prithvi-EO-2.0 exhibits the strongest early-warning profile, detecting anomalies before the recorded event, while TED favors confirmation-oriented detection after a change has materialized. These results show that satellite imagery combined with foundation-model embeddings enables scalable, decision-relevant heritage monitoring. Code: https://github.com/microsoft/WATCH

Felipe Oviedo, Srinivas Vinnakota, Eugene Seleznev et al.

Millions of people around the world have low or no vision. Assistive software applications have been developed for a variety of day-to-day tasks, including optical character recognition, scene identification, person recognition, and currency recognition. This last task, the recognition of banknotes from different denominations, has been addressed by the use of computer vision models for image recognition. However, the datasets and models available for this task are limited, both in terms of dataset size and in variety of currencies covered. In this work, we collect a total of 24,826 images of banknotes in variety of assistive settings, spanning 17 currencies and 112 denominations. Using supervised contrastive learning, we develop a machine learning model for universal currency recognition. This model learns compliant embeddings of banknote images in a variety of contexts, which can be shared publicly (as a compressed vector representation), and can be used to train and test specialized downstream models for any currency, including those not covered by our dataset or for which only a few real images per denomination are available (few-shot learning). We deploy a variation of this model for public use in the last version of the Seeing AI app developed by Microsoft. We share our encoder model and the embeddings as an open dataset in our BankNote-Net repository.

Amit Misra, Jane Wang, Scott McCullers et al.

Measuring global AI diffusion remains challenging due to a lack of population-normalized, cross-country usage data. We introduce AI User Share, a novel indicator that estimates the share of each country's working-age population actively using AI tools. Built from anonymized Microsoft telemetry and adjusted for device access and mobile scaling, this metric spans 147 economies and provides consistent, real-time insight into global AI diffusion. We find wide variation in adoption, with a strong correlation between AI User Share and GDP. High uptake is concentrated in developed economies, though usage among internet-connected populations in lower-income countries reveals substantial latent demand. We also detect sharp increases in usage following major product launches, such as DeepSeek in early 2025. While the metric's reliance solely on Microsoft telemetry introduces potential biases related to this user base, it offers an important new lens into how AI is spreading globally. AI User Share enables timely benchmarking that can inform data-driven AI policy.

Thomas Roca, Anthony Cintron Roman, Jehú Torres Vega et al.

As AI-powered image generation improves, a key question is how well human beings can differentiate between "real" and AI-generated or modified images. Using data collected from the online game "Real or Not Quiz.", this study investigates how effectively people can distinguish AI-generated images from real ones. Participants viewed a randomized set of real and AI-generated images, aiming to identify their authenticity. Analysis of approximately 287,000 image evaluations by over 12,500 global participants revealed an overall success rate of only 62\%, indicating a modest ability, slightly above chance. Participants were most accurate with human portraits but struggled significantly with natural and urban landscapes. These results highlight the inherent challenge humans face in distinguishing AI-generated visual content, particularly images without obvious artifacts or stylistic cues. This study stresses the need for transparency tools, such as watermarks and robust AI detection tools to mitigate the risks of misinformation arising from AI-generated content

Anthony Ortiz, Dhaval Negandhi, Sagar R Mysorekar et al.

Rapid development of renewable energy sources, particularly solar photovoltaics (PV), is critical to mitigate climate change. As a result, India has set ambitious goals to install 500 gigawatts of solar energy capacity by 2030. Given the large footprint projected to meet renewables energy targets, the potential for land use conflicts over environmental values is high. To expedite development of solar energy, land use planners will need access to up-to-date and accurate geo-spatial information of PV infrastructure. In this work, we developed a spatially explicit machine learning model to map utility-scale solar projects across India using freely available satellite imagery with a mean accuracy of 92%. Our model predictions were validated by human experts to obtain a dataset of 1363 solar PV farms. Using this dataset, we measure the solar footprint across India and quantified the degree of landcover modification associated with the development of PV infrastructure. Our analysis indicates that over 74% of solar development In India was built on landcover types that have natural ecosystem preservation, or agricultural value.

Felipe Oviedo, Juan Lavista Ferres, Tonio Buonassisi et al.

While the uptake of data-driven approaches for materials science and chemistry is at an exciting, early stage, to realise the true potential of machine learning models for successful scientific discovery, they must have qualities beyond purely predictive power. The predictions and inner workings of models should provide a certain degree of explainability by human experts, permitting the identification of potential model issues or limitations, building trust on model predictions and unveiling unexpected correlations that may lead to scientific insights. In this work, we summarize applications of interpretability and explainability techniques for materials science and chemistry and discuss how these techniques can improve the outcome of scientific studies. We discuss various challenges for interpretable machine learning in materials science and, more broadly, in scientific settings. In particular, we emphasize the risks of inferring causation or reaching generalization by purely interpreting machine learning models and the need of uncertainty estimates for model explanations. Finally, we showcase a number of exciting developments in other fields that could benefit interpretability in material science and chemistry problems.

Anusua Trivedi, Jocelyn Desbiens, Ron Gross et al.

Purpose: To demonstrate that retinal microvasculature per se is a reliable biomarker for Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) and, by extension, cardiovascular diseases. Methods: Deep Learning Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) applied to color fundus images for semantic segmentation of the blood vessels and severity classification on both vascular and full images. Vessel reconstruction through harmonic descriptors is also used as a smoothing and de-noising tool. The mathematical background of the theory is also outlined. Results: For diabetic patients, at least 93.8% of DR No-Refer vs. Refer classification can be related to vasculature defects. As for the Non-Sight Threatening vs. Sight Threatening case, the ratio is as high as 96.7%. Conclusion: In the case of DR, most of the disease biomarkers are related topologically to the vasculature. Translational Relevance: Experiments conducted on eye blood vasculature reconstruction as a biomarker shows a strong correlation between vasculature shape and later stages of DR.

Mayana Pereira, Meghana Kshirsagar, Sumit Mukherjee et al.

Diferentially private (DP) synthetic datasets are a powerful approach for training machine learning models while respecting the privacy of individual data providers. The effect of DP on the fairness of the resulting trained models is not yet well understood. In this contribution, we systematically study the effects of differentially private synthetic data generation on classification. We analyze disparities in model utility and bias caused by the synthetic dataset, measured through algorithmic fairness metrics. Our first set of results show that although there seems to be a clear negative correlation between privacy and utility (the more private, the less accurate) across all data synthesizers we evaluated, more privacy does not necessarily imply more bias. Additionally, we assess the effects of utilizing synthetic datasets for model training and model evaluation. We show that results obtained on synthetic data can misestimate the actual model performance when it is deployed on real data. We hence advocate on the need for defining proper testing protocols in scenarios where differentially private synthetic datasets are utilized for model training and evaluation.

Sumit Mukherjee, Tina Sederholm, Anthony C. Roman et al.

Child trafficking in a serious problem around the world. Every year there are more than 4 million victims of child trafficking around the world, many of them for the purposes of child sexual exploitation. In collaboration with UK Police and a non-profit focused on child abuse prevention, Global Emancipation Network, we developed a proof-of-concept machine learning pipeline to aid the identification of children from intercepted images. In this work, we focus on images that contain children wearing school uniforms to identify the school of origin. In the absence of a machine learning pipeline, this hugely time consuming and labor intensive task is manually conducted by law enforcement personnel. Thus, by automating aspects of the school identification process, we hope to significantly impact the speed of this portion of child identification. Our proposed pipeline consists of two machine learning models: i) to identify whether an image of a child contains a school uniform in it, and ii) identification of attributes of different school uniform items (such as color/texture of shirts, sweaters, blazers etc.). We describe the data collection, labeling, model development and validation process, along with strategies for efficient searching of schools using the model predictions.

Anusua Trivedi, Mohit Jain, Nikhil Kumar Gupta et al.

Malnutrition is a global health crisis and is the leading cause of death among children under five. Detecting malnutrition requires anthropometric measurements of weight, height, and middle-upper arm circumference. However, measuring them accurately is a challenge, especially in the global south, due to limited resources. In this work, we propose a CNN-based approach to estimate the height of standing children under five years from depth images collected using a smart-phone. According to the SMART Methodology Manual [5], the acceptable accuracy for height is less than 1.4 cm. On training our deep learning model on 87131 depth images, our model achieved an average mean absolute error of 1.64% on 57064 test images. For 70.3% test images, we estimated height accurately within the acceptable 1.4 cm range. Thus, our proposed solution can accurately detect stunting (low height-for-age) in standing children below five years of age.

Mayana Pereira, Allen Kim, Joshua Allen et al.

Broadband connectivity is a key metric in today's economy. In an era of rapid expansion of the digital economy, it directly impacts GDP. Furthermore, with the COVID-19 guidelines of social distancing, internet connectivity became necessary to everyday activities such as work, learning, and staying in touch with family and friends. This paper introduces a publicly available U.S. Broadband Coverage data set that reports broadband coverage percentages at a zip code-level. We also explain how we used differential privacy to guarantee that the privacy of individual households is preserved. Our data set also contains error ranges estimates, providing information on the expected error introduced by differential privacy per zip code. We describe our error range calculation method and show that this additional data metric does not induce any privacy losses.

Jean-Francois Rajotte, Sumit Mukherjee, Caleb Robinson et al.

We introduce FELICIA (FEderated LearnIng with a CentralIzed Adversary) a generative mechanism enabling collaborative learning. In particular, we show how a data owner with limited and biased data could benefit from other data owners while keeping data from all the sources private. This is a common scenario in medical image analysis where privacy legislation prevents data from being shared outside local premises. FELICIA works for a large family of Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) architectures including vanilla and conditional GANs as demonstrated in this work. We show that by using the FELICIA mechanism, a data owner with limited image samples can generate high-quality synthetic images with high utility while neither data owners has to provide access to its data. The sharing happens solely through a central discriminator that has access limited to synthetic data. Here, utility is defined as classification performance on a real test set. We demonstrate these benefits on several realistic healthcare scenarions using benchmark image datasets (MNIST, CIFAR-10) as well as on medical images for the task of skin lesion classification. With multiple experiments, we show that even in the worst cases, combining FELICIA with real data gracefully achieves performance on par with real data while most results significantly improves the utility.

Shimaa Baraka, Benjamin Akera, Bibek Aryal et al.

Glacier mapping is key to ecological monitoring in the hkh region. Climate change poses a risk to individuals whose livelihoods depend on the health of glacier ecosystems. In this work, we present a machine learning based approach to support ecological monitoring, with a focus on glaciers. Our approach is based on semi-automated mapping from satellite images. We utilize readily available remote sensing data to create a model to identify and outline both clean ice and debris-covered glaciers from satellite imagery. We also release data and develop a web tool that allows experts to visualize and correct model predictions, with the ultimate aim of accelerating the glacier mapping process.

Yixi Xu, Sumit Mukherjee, Xiyang Liu et al.

Generative machine learning models are being increasingly viewed as a way to share sensitive data between institutions. While there has been work on developing differentially private generative modeling approaches, these approaches generally lead to sub-par sample quality, limiting their use in real world applications. Another line of work has focused on developing generative models which lead to higher quality samples but currently lack any formal privacy guarantees. In this work, we propose the first formal framework for membership privacy estimation in generative models. We formulate the membership privacy risk as a statistical divergence between training samples and hold-out samples, and propose sample-based methods to estimate this divergence. Compared to previous works, our framework makes more realistic and flexible assumptions. First, we offer a generalizable metric as an alternative to the accuracy metric especially for imbalanced datasets. Second, we loosen the assumption of having full access to the underlying distribution from previous studies , and propose sample-based estimations with theoretical guarantees. Third, along with the population-level membership privacy risk estimation via the optimal membership advantage, we offer the individual-level estimation via the individual privacy risk. Fourth, our framework allows adversaries to access the trained model via a customized query, while prior works require specific attributes.

Sumit Mukherjee, Yixi Xu, Anusua Trivedi et al.

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have made releasing of synthetic images a viable approach to share data without releasing the original dataset. It has been shown that such synthetic data can be used for a variety of downstream tasks such as training classifiers that would otherwise require the original dataset to be shared. However, recent work has shown that the GAN models and their synthetically generated data can be used to infer the training set membership by an adversary who has access to the entire dataset and some auxiliary information. Current approaches to mitigate this problem (such as DPGAN) lead to dramatically poorer generated sample quality than the original non--private GANs. Here we develop a new GAN architecture (privGAN), where the generator is trained not only to cheat the discriminator but also to defend membership inference attacks. The new mechanism provides protection against this mode of attack while leading to negligible loss in downstream performances. In addition, our algorithm has been shown to explicitly prevent overfitting to the training set, which explains why our protection is so effective. The main contributions of this paper are: i) we propose a novel GAN architecture that can generate synthetic data in a privacy preserving manner without additional hyperparameter tuning and architecture selection, ii) we provide a theoretical understanding of the optimal solution of the privGAN loss function, iii) we demonstrate the effectiveness of our model against several white and black--box attacks on several benchmark datasets, iv) we demonstrate on three common benchmark datasets that synthetic images generated by privGAN lead to negligible loss in downstream performance when compared against non--private GANs.

Anusua Trivedi, Sumit Mukherjee, Edmund Tse et al.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has evolved considerably in the last few years. While applications of AI is now becoming more common in fields like retail and marketing, application of AI in solving problems related to developing countries is still an emerging topic. Specially, AI applications in resource-poor settings remains relatively nascent. There is a huge scope of AI being used in such settings. For example, researchers have started exploring AI applications to reduce poverty and deliver a broad range of critical public services. However, despite many promising use cases, there are many dataset related challenges that one has to overcome in such projects. These challenges often take the form of missing data, incorrectly collected data and improperly labeled variables, among other factors. As a result, we can often end up using data that is not representative of the problem we are trying to solve. In this case study, we explore the challenges of using such an open dataset from India, to predict an important health outcome. We highlight how the use of AI without proper understanding of reporting metrics can lead to erroneous conclusions.

Christopher Xie, Avleen Bijral, Juan Lavista Ferres

We present online prediction methods for time series that let us explicitly handle nonstationary artifacts (e.g. trend and seasonality) present in most real time series. Specifically, we show that applying appropriate transformations to such time series before prediction can lead to improved theoretical and empirical prediction performance. Moreover, since these transformations are usually unknown, we employ the learning with experts setting to develop a fully online method (NonSTOP-NonSTationary Online Prediction) for predicting nonstationary time series. This framework allows for seasonality and/or other trends in univariate time series and cointegration in multivariate time series. Our algorithms and regret analysis subsume recent related work while significantly expanding the applicability of such methods. For all the methods, we provide sub-linear regret bounds using relaxed assumptions. The theoretical guarantees do not fully capture the benefits of the transformations, thus we provide a data-dependent analysis of the follow-the-leader algorithm that provides insight into the success of using such transformations. We support all of our results with experiments on simulated and real data.