8.2LGMay 25
Extreme-value forest fire prediction A study of the Loss Function in an Ordinality SchemeNicolas Caron, Christophe Guyeux, Hassan Noura et al.
Wildfires are highly imbalanced natural hazards in both space and severity, making the prediction of extreme events particularly challenging. In this work, we introduce the first ordinal classification framework for forecasting wildfire severity levels directly aligned with operational decision-making in France. Our study investigates the influence of loss-function design on the ability of neural models to predict rare yet critical high-severity fire occurrences. We compare standard cross-entropy with several ordinal-aware objectives, including the proposed probabilistic TDeGPD loss derived from a truncated discrete exponentiated Generalized Pareto Distribution. Through extensive benchmarking over multiple architectures and real operational data, we show that ordinal supervision substantially improves model performance over conventional approaches. In particular, the Weighted Kappa Loss (WKLoss) achieves the best overall results, with more than +0.1 IoU (Intersection Over Union) gain on the most extreme severity classes while maintaining competitive calibration quality. However, performance remains limited for the rarest events due to their extremely low representation in the dataset. These findings highlight the importance of integrating both severity ordering, data imbalance considerations, and seasonality risk into wildfire forecasting systems. Future work will focus on incorporating seasonal dynamics and uncertainty information into training to further improve the reliability of extreme-event prediction.
LGJan 16
Proof of Concept: Multi-Target Wildfire Risk Prediction and Large Language Model SynthesisNicolas Caron, Christophe Guyeux, Hassan Noura et al.
Current state-of-the-art approaches to wildfire risk assessment often overlook operational needs, limiting their practical value for first responders and firefighting services. Effective wildfire management requires a multi-target analysis that captures the diverse dimensions of wildfire risk, including meteorological danger, ignition activity, intervention complexity, and resource mobilization, rather than relying on a single predictive indicator. In this proof of concept, we propose the development of a hybrid framework that combines predictive models for each risk dimension with large language models (LLMs) to synthesize heterogeneous outputs into structured, actionable reports.
LGApr 16, 2024
A Survey on Data-Driven Fault Diagnostic Techniques for Marine Diesel EnginesAyah Youssef, Hassan Noura, Abderrahim El Amrani et al.
Fault diagnosis in marine diesel engines is vital for maritime safety and operational efficiency.These engines are integral to marine vessels, and their reliable performance is crucial for safenavigation. Swift identification and resolution of faults are essential to prevent breakdowns,enhance safety, and reduce the risk of catastrophic failures at sea. Proactive fault diagnosisfacilitates timely maintenance, minimizes downtime, and ensures the overall reliability andlongevity of marine diesel engines. This paper explores the importance of fault diagnosis,emphasizing subsystems, common faults, and recent advancements in data-driven approachesfor effective marine diesel engine maintenance
LGJun 1, 2025
Localized Forest Fire Risk Prediction: A Department-Aware Approach for Operational Decision SupportNicolas Caron, Christophe Guyeux, Hassan Noura et al.
Forest fire prediction involves estimating the likelihood of fire ignition or related risk levels in a specific area over a defined time period. With climate change intensifying fire behavior and frequency, accurate prediction has become one of the most pressing challenges in Artificial Intelligence (AI). Traditionally, fire ignition is approached as a binary classification task in the literature. However, this formulation oversimplifies the problem, especially from the perspective of end-users such as firefighters. In general, as is the case in France, firefighting units are organized by department, each with its terrain, climate conditions, and historical experience with fire events. Consequently, fire risk should be modeled in a way that is sensitive to local conditions and does not assume uniform risk across all regions. This paper proposes a new approach that tailors fire risk assessment to departmental contexts, offering more actionable and region-specific predictions for operational use. With this, we present the first national-scale AI benchmark for metropolitan France using state-of-the-art AI models on a relatively unexplored dataset. Finally, we offer a summary of important future works that should be taken into account. Supplementary materials are available on GitHub.
CRMay 27, 2017
An Efficient Keyless Fragmentation Algorithm for Data ProtectionKatarzyna Kapusta, Gerard Memmi, Hassan Noura
The family of Information Dispersal Algorithms is applied to distributed systems for secure and reliable storage and transmission. In comparison with perfect secret sharing it achieves a significantly smaller memory overhead and better performance, but provides only incremental confidentiality. Therefore, even if it is not possible to explicitly reconstruct data from less than the required amount of fragments, it is still possible to deduce some information about the nature of data by looking at preserved data patterns inside a fragment. The idea behind this paper is to provide a lightweight data fragmentation scheme, that would combine the space efficiency and simplicity that could be find in Information Dispersal Algorithms with a computational level of data confidentiality.
CRJan 29, 2017
A Revision of a New Chaos-Based Image Encryption System: Weaknesses and LimitationsHassan Noura, Lama Sleem, Raphaël Couturier
Lately, multimedia encryption has been the focus of attention in many researches. Recently, a large number of encryption algorithms has been presented to protect image contents.The main objective of modern image encryption schemes is to reduce the computation complexity in order to respond to the real time multimedia and/or limited resources requirements without degrading the high level of security. In fact, most of the recent solutions are based on the chaotic theory. However, the majority of chaotic systems suffers from different limitations and their implementation is difficult at the hardware level because of the non integer operations that are employed requiring huge resources and latency. In this paper, we analyze the new chaos-based image encryption system presented in~\cite{el2016new}. It uses a static binary diffusion layer, followed by a key dependent bit-permutation layer that only iterates for one round. Based on their results in this paper, we claim that the uniformity and avalanche effect can be reached from the first round. However, we tried to verify the results but our conclusion was that these results were wrong because it was shown that at least 6 iterations are necessary to ensure the required cryptographic performance such as the plain-sensitivity property. Therefore, the required execution time must be multiplied by 6 and consequently this will increase the latency. In addition to all aforementioned problems, we find that ensuring the avalanche effect in the whole image introduces a high error propagation. In order to solve this problem, we recommend to ensure the avalanche effect in the level of blocks instead of the whole image.