Lucy Marshall

Carlo Malapad Acosta, Herath Mudiyanselage Viraj Vidura Herath, Jia Yu Lim et al.

Flood models inform strategic disaster management by simulating the spatiotemporal hydrodynamics of flooding. While physics-based numerical flood models are accurate, their substantial computational cost limits their use in operational settings where rapid predictions are essential. Models designed with graph neural networks (GNNs) provide both speed and accuracy while having the ability to process unstructured spatial domains. Given its flexible input and architecture, GNNs can be leveraged alongside physics-informed techniques with ease, significantly improving interpretability. This study introduces a novel flood GNN architecture, DUALFloodGNN, which embeds physical constraints at both global and local scales through explicit loss terms. The model jointly predicts water volume at nodes and flow along edges through a shared message-passing framework. To improve performance for autoregressive inference, model training is conducted with a multi-step loss enhanced with dynamic curriculum learning. Compared with standard GNN architectures and state-of-the-art GNN flood models, DUALFloodGNN achieves substantial improvements in predicting multiple hydrologic variables while maintaining high computational efficiency. The model is open-sourced at https://github.com/acostacos/dual_flood_gnn.

Timothy O. Hodson, Thomas M. Over, Tyler J. Smith et al.

In machine learning or scientific computing, model performance is measured with an objective function. But why choose one objective over another? Information theory gives one answer: To maximize the information in the model, select the objective function that represents the error in the fewest bits. To evaluate different objectives, transform them into likelihood functions. As likelihoods, their relative magnitude represents how strongly we should prefer one objective versus another, and the log of that relation represents the difference in their bit-length, as well as the difference in their uncertainty. In other words, prefer whichever objective minimizes the uncertainty. Under the information-theoretic paradigm, the ultimate objective is to maximize information (and minimize uncertainty), as opposed to any specific utility. We argue that this paradigm is well-suited to models that have many uses and no definite utility, like the large Earth system models used to understand the effects of climate change.