Harvineet Singh

Haoran Zhang, Harvineet Singh, Marzyeh Ghassemi et al.

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

Jean Feng, Adarsh Subbaswamy, Alexej Gossmann et al.

After a machine learning (ML)-based system is deployed, monitoring its performance is important to ensure the safety and effectiveness of the algorithm over time. When an ML algorithm interacts with its environment, the algorithm can affect the data-generating mechanism and be a major source of bias when evaluating its standalone performance, an issue known as performativity. Although prior work has shown how to validate models in the presence of performativity using causal inference techniques, there has been little work on how to monitor models in the presence of performativity. Unlike the setting of model validation, there is much less agreement on which performance metrics to monitor. Different monitoring criteria impact how interpretable the resulting test statistic is, what assumptions are needed for identifiability, and the speed of detection. When this choice is further coupled with the decision to use observational versus interventional data, ML deployment teams are faced with a multitude of monitoring options. The aim of this work is to highlight the relatively under-appreciated complexity of designing a monitoring strategy and how causal reasoning can provide a systematic framework for choosing between these options. As a motivating example, we consider an ML-based risk prediction algorithm for predicting unplanned readmissions. Bringing together tools from causal inference and statistical process control, we consider six monitoring procedures (three candidate monitoring criteria and two data sources) and investigate their operating characteristics in simulation studies. Results from this case study emphasize the seemingly simple (and obvious) fact that not all monitoring systems are created equal, which has real-world impacts on the design and documentation of ML monitoring systems.

Miao Zhang, Harvineet Singh, Lazarus Chok et al.

The increasing availability of high-resolution satellite imagery has enabled the use of machine learning to support land-cover measurement and inform policy-making. However, labelling satellite images is expensive and is available for only some locations. This prompts the use of transfer learning to adapt models from data-rich locations to others. Given the potential for high-impact applications of satellite imagery across geographies, a systematic assessment of transfer learning implications is warranted. In this work, we consider the task of land-cover segmentation and study the fairness implications of transferring models across locations. We leverage a large satellite image segmentation benchmark with 5987 images from 18 districts (9 urban and 9 rural). Via fairness metrics we quantify disparities in model performance along two axes -- across urban-rural locations and across land-cover classes. Findings show that state-of-the-art models have better overall accuracy in rural areas compared to urban areas, through unsupervised domain adaptation methods transfer learning better to urban versus rural areas and enlarge fairness gaps. In analysis of reasons for these findings, we show that raw satellite images are overall more dissimilar between source and target districts for rural than for urban locations. This work highlights the need to conduct fairness analysis for satellite imagery segmentation models and motivates the development of methods for fair transfer learning in order not to introduce disparities between places, particularly urban and rural locations.

Harvineet Singh, Shalmali Joshi, Finale Doshi-Velez et al.

Off-policy Evaluation (OPE) methods are crucial tools for evaluating policies in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, where direct deployment is often infeasible, unethical, or expensive. When deployment environments are expected to undergo changes (that is, dataset shifts), it is important for OPE methods to perform robust evaluation of the policies amidst such changes. Existing approaches consider robustness against a large class of shifts that can arbitrarily change any observable property of the environment. This often results in highly pessimistic estimates of the utilities, thereby invalidating policies that might have been useful in deployment. In this work, we address the aforementioned problem by investigating how domain knowledge can help provide more realistic estimates of the utilities of policies. We leverage human inputs on which aspects of the environments may plausibly change, and adapt the OPE methods to only consider shifts on these aspects. Specifically, we propose a novel framework, Robust OPE (ROPE), which considers shifts on a subset of covariates in the data based on user inputs, and estimates worst-case utility under these shifts. We then develop computationally efficient algorithms for OPE that are robust to the aforementioned shifts for contextual bandits and Markov decision processes. We also theoretically analyze the sample complexity of these algorithms. Extensive experimentation with synthetic and real world datasets from the healthcare domain demonstrates that our approach not only captures realistic dataset shifts accurately, but also results in less pessimistic policy evaluations.

Jean Feng, Harvineet Singh, Fan Xia et al.

Machine learning (ML) algorithms can often differ in performance across domains. Understanding $\textit{why}$ their performance differs is crucial for determining what types of interventions (e.g., algorithmic or operational) are most effective at closing the performance gaps. Existing methods focus on $\textit{aggregate decompositions}$ of the total performance gap into the impact of a shift in the distribution of features $p(X)$ versus the impact of a shift in the conditional distribution of the outcome $p(Y|X)$; however, such coarse explanations offer only a few options for how one can close the performance gap. $\textit{Detailed variable-level decompositions}$ that quantify the importance of each variable to each term in the aggregate decomposition can provide a much deeper understanding and suggest much more targeted interventions. However, existing methods assume knowledge of the full causal graph or make strong parametric assumptions. We introduce a nonparametric hierarchical framework that provides both aggregate and detailed decompositions for explaining why the performance of an ML algorithm differs across domains, without requiring causal knowledge. We derive debiased, computationally-efficient estimators, and statistical inference procedures for asymptotically valid confidence intervals.

Elita Lobo, Harvineet Singh, Marek Petrik et al.

Off-policy Evaluation (OPE) methods are a crucial tool for evaluating policies in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, where exploration is often infeasible, unethical, or expensive. However, the extent to which such methods can be trusted under adversarial threats to data quality is largely unexplored. In this work, we make the first attempt at investigating the sensitivity of OPE methods to marginal adversarial perturbations to the data. We design a generic data poisoning attack framework leveraging influence functions from robust statistics to carefully construct perturbations that maximize error in the policy value estimates. We carry out extensive experimentation with multiple healthcare and control datasets. Our results demonstrate that many existing OPE methods are highly prone to generating value estimates with large errors when subject to data poisoning attacks, even for small adversarial perturbations. These findings question the reliability of policy values derived using OPE methods and motivate the need for developing OPE methods that are statistically robust to train-time data poisoning attacks.

Hyewon Jeong, Sarah Jabbour, Yuzhe Yang et al. · uw

The third ML4H symposium was held in person on December 10, 2023, in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA. The symposium included research roundtable sessions to foster discussions between participants and senior researchers on timely and relevant topics for the \ac{ML4H} community. Encouraged by the successful virtual roundtables in the previous year, we organized eleven in-person roundtables and four virtual roundtables at ML4H 2022. The organization of the research roundtables at the conference involved 17 Senior Chairs and 19 Junior Chairs across 11 tables. Each roundtable session included invited senior chairs (with substantial experience in the field), junior chairs (responsible for facilitating the discussion), and attendees from diverse backgrounds with interest in the session's topic. Herein we detail the organization process and compile takeaways from these roundtable discussions, including recent advances, applications, and open challenges for each topic. We conclude with a summary and lessons learned across all roundtables. This document serves as a comprehensive review paper, summarizing the recent advancements in machine learning for healthcare as contributed by foremost researchers in the field.

Harvineet Singh, Fan Xia, Mi-Ok Kim et al.

In fairness audits, a standard objective is to detect whether a given algorithm performs substantially differently between subgroups. Properly powering the statistical analysis of such audits is crucial for obtaining informative fairness assessments, as it ensures a high probability of detecting unfairness when it exists. However, limited guidance is available on the amount of data necessary for a fairness audit, lacking directly applicable results concerning commonly used fairness metrics. Additionally, the consideration of unequal subgroup sample sizes is also missing. In this tutorial, we address these issues by providing guidance on how to determine the required subgroup sample sizes to maximize the statistical power of hypothesis tests for detecting unfairness. Our findings are applicable to audits of binary classification models and multiple fairness metrics derived as summaries of the confusion matrix. Furthermore, we discuss other aspects of audit study designs that can increase the reliability of audit results.

Harvineet Singh, Fan Xia, Alexej Gossmann et al.

Machine learning (ML) models frequently experience performance degradation when deployed in new contexts. Such degradation is rarely uniform: some subgroups may suffer large performance decay while others may not. Understanding where and how large differences in performance arise is critical for designing targeted corrective actions that mitigate decay for the most affected subgroups while minimizing any unintended effects. Current approaches do not provide such detailed insight, as they either (i) explain how average performance shifts arise or (ii) identify adversely affected subgroups without insight into how this occurred. To this end, we introduce a Subgroup-scanning Hierarchical Inference Framework for performance drifT (SHIFT). SHIFT first asks "Is there any subgroup with unacceptably large performance decay due to covariate/outcome shifts?" (Where?) and, if so, dives deeper to ask "Can we explain this using more detailed variable(subset)-specific shifts?" (How?). In real-world experiments, we find that SHIFT identifies interpretable subgroups affected by performance decay, and suggests targeted actions that effectively mitigate the decay.

Harvineet Singh, Shalmali Joshi, Finale Doshi-Velez et al.

Machine learning models are often trained on data from one distribution and deployed on others. So it becomes important to design models that are robust to distribution shifts. Most of the existing work focuses on optimizing for either adversarial shifts or interventional shifts. Adversarial methods lack expressivity in representing plausible shifts as they consider shifts to joint distributions in the data. Interventional methods allow more expressivity but provide robustness to unbounded shifts, resulting in overly conservative models. In this work, we combine the complementary strengths of the two approaches and propose a new formulation, RISe, for designing robust models against a set of distribution shifts that are at the intersection of adversarial and interventional shifts. We employ the distributionally robust optimization framework to optimize the resulting objective in both supervised and reinforcement learning settings. Extensive experimentation with synthetic and real world datasets from healthcare demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

Harvineet Singh, Moumita Sinha, Atanu R. Sinha et al.

Email communications are ubiquitous. Firms control send times of emails and thereby the instants at which emails reach recipients (it is assumed email is received instantaneously from the send time). However, they do not control the duration it takes for recipients to open emails, labeled as time-to-open. Importantly, among emails that are opened, most occur within a short window from their send times. We posit that emails are likely to be opened sooner when send times are convenient for recipients, while for other send times, emails can get ignored. Thus, to compute appropriate send times it is important to predict times-to-open accurately. We propose a recurrent neural network (RNN) in a survival model framework to predict times-to-open, for each recipient. Using that we compute appropriate send times. We experiment on a data set of emails sent to a million customers over five months. The sequence of emails received by a person from a sender is a result of interactions with past emails from the sender, and hence contain useful signal that inform our model. This sequential dependence affords our proposed RNN-Survival (RNN-S) approach to outperform survival analysis approaches in predicting times-to-open. We show that best times to send emails can be computed accurately from predicted times-to-open. This approach allows a firm to tune send times of emails, which is in its control, to favorably influence open rates and engagement.

Harvineet Singh, Rina Singh, Vishwali Mhasawade et al.

We study the problem of learning fair prediction models for unseen test sets distributed differently from the train set. Stability against changes in data distribution is an important mandate for responsible deployment of models. The domain adaptation literature addresses this concern, albeit with the notion of stability limited to that of prediction accuracy. We identify sufficient conditions under which stable models, both in terms of prediction accuracy and fairness, can be learned. Using the causal graph describing the data and the anticipated shifts, we specify an approach based on feature selection that exploits conditional independencies in the data to estimate accuracy and fairness metrics for the test set. We show that for specific fairness definitions, the resulting model satisfies a form of worst-case optimality. In context of a healthcare task, we illustrate the advantages of the approach in making more equitable decisions.

Moumita Sinha, Vishwa Vinay, Harvineet Singh

Email messages have been an important mode of communication, not only for work, but also for social interactions and marketing. When messages have time sensitive information, it becomes relevant for the sender to know what is the expected time within which the email will be read by the recipient. In this paper we use a survival analysis framework to predict the time to open an email once it has been received. We use the Cox Proportional Hazards (CoxPH) model that offers a way to combine various features that might affect the event of opening an email. As an extension, we also apply a mixture model (MM) approach to CoxPH that distinguishes between recipients, based on a latent state of how prone to opening the messages each individual is. We compare our approach with standard classification and regression models. While the classification model provides predictions on the likelihood of an email being opened, the regression model provides prediction of the real-valued time to open. The use of survival analysis based methods allows us to jointly model both the open event as well as the time-to-open. We experimented on a large real-world dataset of marketing emails sent in a 3-month time duration. The mixture model achieves the best accuracy on our data where a high proportion of email messages go unopened.

Aadhavan M. Nambhi, Bhanu Prakash Reddy, Aarsh Prakash Agarwal et al.

Data analytics software applications have become an integral part of the decision-making process of analysts. Users of such a software face challenges due to insufficient product and domain knowledge, and find themselves in need of help. To alleviate this, we propose a task-aware command recommendation system, to guide the user on what commands could be executed next. We rely on topic modeling techniques to incorporate information about user's task into our models. We also present a help prediction model to detect if a user is in need of help, in which case the system proactively provides the aforementioned command recommendations. We leverage the log data of a web-based analytics software to quantify the superior performance of our neural models, in comparison to competitive baselines.

Prakhar Gupta, Gaurush Hiranandani, Harvineet Singh et al.

Learning to rank is an important problem in machine learning and recommender systems. In a recommender system, a user is typically recommended a list of items. Since the user is unlikely to examine the entire recommended list, partial feedback arises naturally. At the same time, diverse recommendations are important because it is challenging to model all tastes of the user in practice. In this paper, we propose the first algorithm for online learning to rank diverse items from partial-click feedback. We assume that the user examines the list of recommended items until the user is attracted by an item, which is clicked, and does not examine the rest of the items. This model of user behavior is known as the cascade model. We propose an online learning algorithm, cascadelsb, for solving our problem. The algorithm actively explores the tastes of the user with the objective of learning to recommend the optimal diverse list. We analyze the algorithm and prove a gap-free upper bound on its n-step regret. We evaluate cascadelsb on both synthetic and real-world datasets, compare it to various baselines, and show that it learns even when our modeling assumptions do not hold exactly.

Sumit Shekhar, Dhruv Singal, Harvineet Singh et al.

With the explosion of video content on the Internet, there is a need for research on methods for video analysis which take human cognition into account. One such cognitive measure is memorability, or the ability to recall visual content after watching it. Prior research has looked into image memorability and shown that it is intrinsic to visual content, but the problem of modeling video memorability has not been addressed sufficiently. In this work, we develop a prediction model for video memorability, including complexities of video content in it. Detailed feature analysis reveals that the proposed method correlates well with existing findings on memorability. We also describe a novel experiment of predicting video sub-shot memorability and show that our approach improves over current memorability methods in this task. Experiments on standard datasets demonstrate that the proposed metric can achieve results on par or better than the state-of-the art methods for video summarization.