Yucheng Xing

Ling Huang, Su Ruan, Yucheng Xing et al.

The comprehensive integration of machine learning healthcare models within clinical practice remains suboptimal, notwithstanding the proliferation of high-performing solutions reported in the literature. A predominant factor hindering widespread adoption pertains to an insufficiency of evidence affirming the reliability of the aforementioned models. Recently, uncertainty quantification methods have been proposed as a potential solution to quantify the reliability of machine learning models and thus increase the interpretability and acceptability of the result. In this review, we offer a comprehensive overview of prevailing methods proposed to quantify uncertainty inherent in machine learning models developed for various medical image tasks. Contrary to earlier reviews that exclusively focused on probabilistic methods, this review also explores non-probabilistic approaches, thereby furnishing a more holistic survey of research pertaining to uncertainty quantification for machine learning models. Analysis of medical images with the summary and discussion on medical applications and the corresponding uncertainty evaluation protocols are presented, which focus on the specific challenges of uncertainty in medical image analysis. We also highlight some potential future research work at the end. Generally, this review aims to allow researchers from both clinical and technical backgrounds to gain a quick and yet in-depth understanding of the research in uncertainty quantification for medical image analysis machine learning models.

Ling Huang, Yucheng Xing, Swapnil Mishra et al.

Time-to-event analysis provides insights into clinical prognosis and treatment recommendations. However, this task is more challenging than standard regression problems due to the presence of censored observations. Additionally, the lack of confidence assessment, model robustness, and prediction calibration raises concerns about the reliability of predictions. To address these challenges, we propose an evidential regression model specifically designed for time-to-event prediction. The proposed model quantifies both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties using Gaussian Random Fuzzy Numbers and belief functions, providing clinicians with uncertainty-aware survival time predictions. The model is trained by minimizing a generalized negative log-likelihood function accounting for data censoring. Experimental evaluations using simulated datasets with different data distributions and censoring conditions, as well as real-world datasets across diverse clinical applications, demonstrate that our model delivers both accurate and reliable performance, outperforming state-of-the-art methods. These results highlight the potential of our approach for enhancing clinical decision-making in survival analysis.

Xiaodong Liu, Yucheng Xing, Xin Wang

Reliable motion forecasting of surrounding agents is essential for ensuring the safe operation of autonomous vehicles. Many existing trajectory prediction methods rely heavily on high-definition (HD) maps as strong driving priors. However, the availability and accuracy of these priors are not guaranteed due to substantial costs to build, localization errors of vehicles, or ongoing road constructions. In this paper, we introduce MFTP, a Map-Free Trajectory Prediction method that offers several advantages. First, it eliminates the need for HD maps during inference while still benefiting from map priors during training via knowledge distillation. Second, we present a novel hierarchical encoder that effectively extracts spatial-temporal agent features and aggregates them into multiple trajectory queries. Additionally, we introduce an iterative decoder that sequentially decodes trajectory queries to generate the final predictions. Extensive experiments show that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Argoverse dataset under the map-free setting.

Jingying Ma, Feng Wu, Qika Lin et al.

Electroencephalography (EEG) provides real-time insights into brain activity and supports diverse applications in neuroscience. While EEG foundation models (EFMs) have emerged to address the scalability issues of task-specific models, current approaches still yield clinically uninterpretable and weakly discriminative representations, inefficiently capture global dependencies, and neglect important local neural events. We present CodeBrain, a two-stage EFM designed to fill this gap. In the first stage, we introduce the TFDual-Tokenizer, which decouples heterogeneous temporal and frequency EEG signals into discrete tokens, quadratically expanding the representation space to enhance discriminative power and offering domain-specific interpretability by suggesting potential links to neural events and spectral rhythms. In the second stage, we propose the multi-scale EEGSSM architecture, which combines structured global convolution with sliding window attention to efficiently capture both sparse long-range and local dependencies, reflecting the brain's small-world topology. Pretrained on the largest public EEG corpus, CodeBrain achieves strong generalization across 8 downstream tasks and 10 datasets under distribution shifts, supported by comprehensive ablations, scaling-law analyses, and interpretability evaluations. Both code and pretraining weights will be released in the future version.

Yucheng Xing, Xin Wang

Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) has been applied to more and more scenarios due to its excellent performance in many machine learning tasks, especially with deep and complex structures. However, as the network goes deeper, more parameters need to be stored and optimized. Besides, almost all common CNN models adopt "train-and-use" strategy where the structure is pre-defined and the kernel parameters are fixed after the training with the same structure and set of parameters used for all data without considering the content complexity. In this paper, we propose a new CNN framework, named as $\textit{Puppet-CNN}$, which contains two modules: a $\textit{puppet module}$ and a $\textit{puppeteer module}$. The puppet module is a CNN model used to actually process the input data just like other works, but its depth and kernels are generated by the puppeteer module (realized with Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE)) based on the input complexity each time. By recurrently generating kernel parameters in the puppet module, we can take advantage of the dependence among kernels of different convolutional layers to significantly reduce the size of CNN model by only storing and training the parameters of the much smaller puppeteer ODE module. Through experiments on several datasets, our method has proven to be superior than the traditional CNNs on both performance and efficiency. The model size can be reduced more than 10 times.

Ling Huang, Yucheng Xing, Thierry Denoeux et al.

We introduce an evidential model for time-to-event prediction with censored data. In this model, uncertainty on event time is quantified by Gaussian random fuzzy numbers, a newly introduced family of random fuzzy subsets of the real line with associated belief functions, generalizing both Gaussian random variables and Gaussian possibility distributions. Our approach makes minimal assumptions about the underlying time-to-event distribution. The model is fit by minimizing a generalized negative log-likelihood function that accounts for both normal and censored data. Comparative experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the very good performance of our model as compared to the state-of-the-art.

Yingru Liu, Yucheng Xing, Xuewen Yang et al.

Learning continuous-time stochastic dynamics is a fundamental and essential problem in modeling sporadic time series, whose observations are irregular and sparse in both time and dimension. For a given system whose latent states and observed data are high-dimensional, it is generally impossible to derive a precise continuous-time stochastic process to describe the system behaviors. To solve the above problem, we apply Variational Bayesian method and propose a flexible continuous-time stochastic recurrent neural network named Variational Stochastic Differential Networks (VSDN), which embeds the complicated dynamics of the sporadic time series by neural Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE). VSDNs capture the stochastic dependency among latent states and observations by deep neural networks. We also incorporate two differential Evidence Lower Bounds to efficiently train the models. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that VSDNs outperform state-of-the-art continuous-time deep learning models and achieve remarkable performance on prediction and interpolation tasks for sporadic time series.