Yi Guo

Yi Guo, Kyri Baker, Emiliano Dall'Anese et al.

We propose a data-based method to solve a multi-stage stochastic optimal power flow (OPF) problem based on limited information about forecast error distributions. The framework explicitly combines multi-stage feedback policies with any forecasting method and historical forecast error data. The objective is to determine power scheduling policies for controllable devices in a power network to balance operational cost and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of device and network constraint violations. These decisions include both nominal power schedules and reserve policies, which specify planned reactions to forecast errors in order to accommodate fluctuating renewable energy sources. Instead of assuming the uncertainties across the networks follow prescribed probability distributions, we consider ambiguity sets of distributions centered around a finite training dataset. By utilizing the Wasserstein metric to quantify differences between the empirical data-based distribution and the real unknown data-generating distribution, we formulate a multi-stage distributionally robust OPF problem to compute optimal control policies that are robust to both forecast errors and sampling errors inherent in the dataset. Two specific data-based distributionally robust stochastic OPF problems are proposed for distribution networks and transmission systems.

Yi Guo, Kyri Baker, Emiliano Dall'Anese et al.

This is the second part of a two-part paper on data-based distributionally robust stochastic optimal power flow (OPF). The general problem formulation and methodology have been presented in Part I [1]. Here, we present extensive numerical experiments in both distribution and transmission networks to illustrate the effectiveness and flexibility of the proposed methodology for balancing efficiency, constraint violation risk, and out-of-sample performance. On the distribution side, the method mitigates overvoltages due to high photovoltaic penetration using local energy storage devices. On the transmission side, the method reduces N-1 security line flow constraint risks due to high wind penetration using reserve policies for controllable generators. In both cases, the data-based distributionally robust model predictive control (MPC) algorithm explicitly utilizes forecast error training datasets, which can be updated online. The numerical results illustrate inherent tradeoffs between the operational costs, risks of constraints violations, and out-of-sample performance, offering systematic techniques for system operators to balance these objectives.

Yi Guo, Kyri Baker, Emiliano Dall'Anese et al.

We propose a data-driven method to solve a stochastic optimal power flow (OPF) problem based on limited information about forecast error distributions. The objective is to determine power schedules for controllable devices in a power network to balance operation cost and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of device and network constraint violations. These decisions include scheduled power output adjustments and reserve policies, which specify planned reactions to forecast errors in order to accommodate fluctuating renewable energy sources. Instead of assuming the uncertainties across the networks follow prescribed probability distributions, we assume the distributions are only observable through a finite training dataset. By utilizing the Wasserstein metric to quantify differences between the empirical data-based distribution and the real data-generating distribution, we formulate a distributionally robust optimization OPF problem to search for power schedules and reserve policies that are robust to sampling errors inherent in the dataset. A simple numerical example illustrates inherent tradeoffs between operation cost and risk of constraint violation, and we show how our proposed method offers a data-driven framework to balance these objectives.

Yi Guo, Tyler H. Summers

Traditional synchronous generators with rotational inertia are being replaced by low-inertia renewable energy resources (RESs) in many power grids and operational scenarios. Due to emerging market mechanisms, inherent variability of RESs, and existing control schemes, the resulting system inertia levels can not only be low but also markedly time-varying. In this paper, we investigate performance and stability of low-inertia power systems with stochastic system inertia. In particular, we consider system dynamics modelled by a linearized stochastic swing equation, where stochastic system inertia is regarded as multiplicative noise. The $\mathcal{H}_2$ norm is used to quantify the performance of the system in the presence of persistent disturbances or transient faults. The performance metric can be computed by solving a generalized Lyapunov equation, which has fundamentally different characteristics from systems with only additive noise. For grids with uniform inertia and damping parameters, we derive closed-form expressions for the $\mathcal{H}_2$ norm of the proposed stochastic swing equation. The analysis gives insights into how the $\mathcal{H}_2$ norm of the stochastic swing equation depends on 1) network topology; 2) system parameters; and 3) distribution parameters of disturbances. A mean-square stability condition is also derived. Numerical results provide additional insights for performance and stability of the stochastic swing equation.

Kai Yi, Yi Guo, Yanan Fan et al.

Cosmic microwave background radiation (CMB) is critical to the understanding of the early universe and precise estimation of cosmological constants. Due to the contamination of thermal dust noise in the galaxy, the CMB map that is an image on the two-dimensional sphere has missing observations, mainly concentrated on the equatorial region. The noise of the CMB map has a significant impact on the estimation precision for cosmological parameters. Inpainting the CMB map can effectively reduce the uncertainty of parametric estimation. In this paper, we propose a deep learning-based variational autoencoder --- CosmoVAE, to restoring the missing observations of the CMB map. The input and output of CosmoVAE are square images. To generate training, validation, and test data sets, we segment the full-sky CMB map into many small images by Cartesian projection. CosmoVAE assigns physical quantities to the parameters of the VAE network by using the angular power spectrum of the Gaussian random field as latent variables. CosmoVAE adopts a new loss function to improve the learning performance of the model, which consists of $\ell_1$ reconstruction loss, Kullback-Leibler divergence between the posterior distribution of encoder network and the prior distribution of latent variables, perceptual loss, and total-variation regularizer. The proposed model achieves state of the art performance for Planck \texttt{Commander} 2018 CMB map inpainting.

Xia Hong, Sheng Chen, Yi Guo et al.

A l1-norm penalized orthogonal forward regression (l1-POFR) algorithm is proposed based on the concept of leaveone- out mean square error (LOOMSE). Firstly, a new l1-norm penalized cost function is defined in the constructed orthogonal space, and each orthogonal basis is associated with an individually tunable regularization parameter. Secondly, due to orthogonal computation, the LOOMSE can be analytically computed without actually splitting the data set, and moreover a closed form of the optimal regularization parameter in terms of minimal LOOMSE is derived. Thirdly, a lower bound for regularization parameters is proposed, which can be used for robust LOOMSE estimation by adaptively detecting and removing regressors to an inactive set so that the computational cost of the algorithm is significantly reduced. Illustrative examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new l1-POFR approach.