Jittarin Jetwiriyanon

Jittarin Jetwiriyanon, Teo Susnjak, Surangika Ranathunga

Many universities face increasing financial pressure and rely on accurate forecasts of commencing enrolments. However, enrolment forecasting in higher education is often data-sparse; annual series are short and affected by reporting changes and regime shifts. Popular classical approaches can be unreliable, as parameter estimation and model selection are unstable with short samples, and structural breaks degrade extrapolation. Recently, TSFMs have provided zero-shot priors, delivering strong gains in annual, data-sparse institutional forecasting under leakage-disciplined covariate construction. We benchmark multiple TSFM families in a zero-shot setting and test a compact, leakage-safe covariate set and introduce the Institutional Operating Conditions Index (IOCI), a transferable 0-100 regime covariate derived from time-stamped documentary evidence available at each forecast origin, alongside Google Trends demand proxies with stabilising feature engineering. Using an expanding-window backtest with strict vintage alignment, covariate-conditioned TSFMs perform on par with classical benchmarks without institution-specific training, with performance differences varying by cohort and model.

Jittarin Jetwiriyanon, Teo Susnjak, Surangika Ranathunga

This study investigates zero-shot forecasting capabilities of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) for macroeconomic indicators. We apply TSFMs to forecasting economic indicators under univariate conditions, bypassing the need for train bespoke econometric models using and extensive training datasets. Our experiments were conducted on a case study dataset, without additional customisation. We rigorously back-tested three state-of-the-art TSFMs (Chronos, TimeGPT and Moirai) under data-scarce conditions and structural breaks. Our results demonstrate that appropriately engineered TSFMs can internalise rich economic dynamics, accommodate regime shifts, and deliver well-behaved uncertainty estimates out of the box, while matching state-of-the-art multivariate models on this domain. Our findings suggest that, without any fine-tuning, TSFMs can match or exceed classical models during stable economic conditions. However, they are vulnerable to degradation in performances during periods of rapid shocks. The findings offer guidance to practitioners on when zero-shot deployments are viable for macroeconomic monitoring and strategic planning.