Mikhail L. Arbuzov

Mikhail L. Arbuzov, Lee Mosbacker, Sisong Bei et al.

Universal LLM reliability is not a finite-library problem: across all possible tasks, tools, schemas, knowledge sources, and evaluator expectations, new intervention-distinguishable failure modes can appear without bound, so no finite intervention dictionary can guarantee bounded residual error for every such mode. But deployed systems do not operate over the whole universe. They operate inside operationally bounded patches (legal review, medical RAG, code repair, customer-support agents, contract extraction) with recurring tasks, schemas, tools, and evaluator expectations. Within such patches, empirical evidence suggests failures are sparse, repetitive, and concentrated in a small recurring catalogue, so reliability becomes a local catalogue-discovery and intervention-coverage problem rather than an exponential token-length problem. We formalize this transition with two propositions and one corollary. Proposition 1 is the worst-case-mode-wise negative result: no finite intervention dictionary covers every distinguishable failure mode of an unbounded domain. Corollary 1 is the inverse-discovery implication: the logarithmic upper bound on mode discovery cannot accommodate linearly more distinct tail modes without exponentially more observed hard-failure events. Proposition 2 is the positive patch-local result: under log active-mode exposure and head-heavy coverage, a sufficient per-hard-decision intervention budget grows polylogarithmically in sequence length and becomes domain-constant once the patch catalogue saturates. The framework relocates rather than dissolves long-context difficulty: where the number of hard decisions itself grows with task length, reliability remains hard; the contribution is to identify the on-axis intervention rather than to make those regimes easy.

Mikhail L. Arbuzov, Sisong Bei, Ziwei Dong et al.

We introduce Telegraph English (TE), a prompt-compression protocol that rewrites natural language into a symbol-rich, formally-structured dialect. Where token-deletion methods such as LLMLingua-2 train a classifier to delete low-importance tokens at a fixed ratio, TE performs a full semantic rewrite: it decomposes the input into atomic fact lines, substitutes verbose phrases with $\sim$40 logical and relational symbols, and lets the compression ratio adapt to each document's information density. A consequence of the line-structure rule is that compression and semantic chunking become the same operation -- each output line is an independently addressable fact, so the compressed representation is simultaneously a semantic index. We evaluate TE on 4{,}081 question-answer pairs from LongBench-v2 across five OpenAI models and two difficulty levels. At roughly 50\% token reduction, TE preserves 99.1\% accuracy on key facts with GPT-4.1 and outperforms LLMLingua-2 at matched compression ratios on every model and task tested. The gap widens on smaller models -- up to 11 percentage points on fine-detail tasks -- suggesting that explicit relational structure compensates for limited model capacity. We release the grammar specification, compression prompt, benchmark data, and reference implementation.

Mikhail L. Arbuzov, Sisong Bei, Alexey Shvets

We introduce the Estimated Dynamic Equilibrium Model (EDEM), an agent-based framework that treats supply and demand as a coupled stochastic process driven by heterogeneous, noisy agent valuations. The model's primary technical contribution is the identification of a generative mechanism for persistent disequilibrium: when market-clearing prices are sequentially sampled from the upper tail of noisy bid distributions and recycled as inputs for future valuations, expected prices drift upward despite strictly zero-mean estimation errors. We derive this order-statistic bias in closed form for i.i.d. uniform bids and use simulations to show that compounding this bias across epochs yields exponential price growth without requiring assumptions of investor optimism or irrationality. This framework extends Miller's divergence-of-opinion theory to a dynamic setting, recovering Walrasian equilibrium and Miller's static premium as limiting cases. Through controlled experiments and sensitivity analysis on a simulated real-estate neighborhood, we identify six distinct regimes-ranging from band-stability to runaway bubbles-emerging from a single agent ruleset. These results offer a potential explanation for the contradictory findings in the empirical divergence-of-opinion literature and suggest that machine-learning valuation algorithms may inadvertently amplify this inherent statistical bias.

Mikhail L. Arbuzov, Alexey A. Shvets, Sisong Beir

The prevailing assumption of an exponential decay in large language model (LLM) reliability with sequence length, predicated on independent per-token error probabilities, posits an inherent limitation for long autoregressive outputs. Our research fundamentally challenges this view by synthesizing emerging evidence that LLM errors are not uniformly distributed but are concentrated at sparse "key tokens" ($5-10\%$ of total tokens) representing critical decision junctions. By distinguishing these high-impact tokens from the increasingly predictable majority, we introduce a new reliability formula explaining the sustained coherence of modern LLMs over thousands of tokens. Converging research streams reveal that long-context performance primarily depends on accurately navigating a few crucial semantic decision points rather than on uniform token-level accuracy, enabling targeted strategies that significantly outperform brute-force approaches. We thus propose a framework for next-generation systems centered on selective preservation of semantically vital tokens, dynamic computational allocation at uncertain decision boundaries, multi-path exploration at ambiguities, and architectures aligned with natural semantic domains. This marks a fundamental shift from raw scaling to strategic reasoning, promising breakthrough performance without proportionate computational scaling and offering a more nuanced understanding that supersedes the exponential decay hypothesis, thereby opening pathways toward substantially more powerful and efficient language systems.