Keith Decker

Haoran Wei, Yuanbo Wang, Lidia Mangu et al.

We build a profitable electronic trading agent with Reinforcement Learning that places buy and sell orders in the stock market. An environment model is built only with historical observational data, and the RL agent learns the trading policy by interacting with the environment model instead of with the real-market to minimize the risk and potential monetary loss. Trained in unsupervised and self-supervised fashion, our environment model learned a temporal and causal representation of the market in latent space through deep neural networks. We demonstrate that the trading policy trained entirely within the environment model can be transferred back into the real market and maintain its profitability. We believe that this environment model can serve as a robust simulator that predicts market movement as well as trade impact for further studies.

Kevin Corder, Manuel M. Vindiola, Keith Decker

Recent multi-agent actor-critic methods have utilized centralized training with decentralized execution to address the non-stationarity of co-adapting agents. This training paradigm constrains learning to the centralized phase such that only pre-learned policies may be used during the decentralized phase, which performs poorly when agent communications are delayed, noisy, or disrupted. In this work, we propose a new system that can gracefully handle partially-observable information due to communication disruptions during decentralized execution. Our approach augments the multi-agent actor-critic method's centralized training phase with generative modeling so that agents may infer other agents' observations when provided with locally available context. Our method is evaluated on three tasks that require agents to combine local and remote observations communicated by other agents. We evaluate our approach by introducing both partial observability during decentralized execution, and show that decentralized training on inferred observations performs as well or better than existing actor-critic methods.

Piero P. Bonissone, Keith S. Decker

The management of uncertainty in expert systems has usually been left to ad hoc representations and rules of combinations lacking either a sound theory or clear semantics. The objective of this paper is to establish a theoretical basis for defining the syntax and semantics of a small subset of calculi of uncertainty operating on a given term set of linguistic statements of likelihood. Each calculus is defined by specifying a negation, a conjunction and a disjunction operator. Families of Triangular norms and conorms constitute the most general representations of conjunction and disjunction operators. These families provide us with a formalism for defining an infinite number of different calculi of uncertainty. The term set will define the uncertainty granularity, i.e. the finest level of distinction among different quantifications of uncertainty. This granularity will limit the ability to differentiate between two similar operators. Therefore, only a small finite subset of the infinite number of calculi will produce notably different results. This result is illustrated by two experiments where nine and eleven different calculi of uncertainty are used with three term sets containing five, nine, and thirteen elements, respectively. Finally, the use of context dependent rule set is proposed to select the most appropriate calculus for any given situation. Such a rule set will be relatively small since it must only describe the selection policies for a small number of calculi (resulting from the analyzed trade-off between complexity and precision).