Jędrzej Kozal

Radek Svoboda, Sebastian Basterrech, Jedrzej Kozal et al.

Forecasting natural gas consumption, considering seasonality and trends, is crucial in planning its supply and consumption and optimizing the cost of obtaining it, mainly by industrial entities. However, in times of threats to its supply, it is also a critical element that guarantees the supply of this raw material to meet individual consumers' needs, ensuring society's energy security. This article introduces a novel multistep ahead forecasting of natural gas consumption with change point detection integration for model collection selection with continual learning capabilities using data stream processing. The performance of the forecasting models based on the proposed approach is evaluated in a complex real-world use case of natural gas consumption forecasting. We employed Hoeffding tree predictors as forecasting models and the Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) algorithm for the change point detection procedure. The change point detection integration enables selecting a different model collection for successive time frames. Thus, three model collection selection procedures (with and without an error feedback loop) are defined and evaluated for forecasting scenarios with various densities of detected change points. These models were compared with change point agnostic baseline approaches. Our experiments show that fewer change points result in a lower forecasting error regardless of the model collection selection procedure employed. Also, simpler model collection selection procedures omitting forecasting error feedback leads to more robust forecasting models suitable for continual learning tasks.

Jędrzej Kozal, Jan Wasilewski, Bartosz Krawczyk et al.

Continual learning poses a fundamental challenge for modern machine learning systems, requiring models to adapt to new tasks while retaining knowledge from previous ones. Addressing this challenge necessitates the development of efficient algorithms capable of learning from data streams and accumulating knowledge over time. This paper proposes a novel approach to continual learning utilizing the weight consolidation method. Our method, a simple yet powerful technique, enhances robustness against catastrophic forgetting by interpolating between old and new model weights after each novel task, effectively merging two models to facilitate exploration of local minima emerging after arrival of new concepts. Moreover, we demonstrate that our approach can complement existing rehearsal-based replay approaches, improving their accuracy and further mitigating the forgetting phenomenon. Additionally, our method provides an intuitive mechanism for controlling the stability-plasticity trade-off. Experimental results showcase the significant performance enhancement to state-of-the-art experience replay algorithms the proposed weight consolidation approach offers. Our algorithm can be downloaded from https://github.com/jedrzejkozal/weight-interpolation-cl.

Jędrzej Kozal, Michał Leś, Paweł Zyblewski et al.

The abundance of information in digital media, which in today's world is the main source of knowledge about current events for the masses, makes it possible to spread disinformation on a larger scale than ever before. Consequently, there is a need to develop novel fake news detection approaches capable of adapting to changing factual contexts and generalizing previously or concurrently acquired knowledge. To deal with this problem, we propose a lifelong learning-inspired approach, which allows for fake news detection in multiple languages and the mutual transfer of knowledge acquired in each of them. Both classical feature extractors, such as Term frequency-inverse document frequency or Latent Dirichlet Allocation, and integrated deep NLP (Natural Language Processing) BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers) models paired with MLP (Multilayer Perceptron) classifier, were employed. The results of experiments conducted on two datasets dedicated to the fake news classification task (in English and Spanish, respectively), supported by statistical analysis, confirmed that utilization of additional languages could improve performance for traditional methods. Also, in some cases supplementing the deep learning method with classical ones can positively impact obtained results. The ability of models to generalize the knowledge acquired between the analyzed languages was also observed.

Jędrzej Kozal, Michał Woźniak

Since data is the fuel that drives machine learning models, and access to labeled data is generally expensive, semi-supervised methods are constantly popular. They enable the acquisition of large datasets without the need for too many expert labels. This work combines self-labeling techniques with active learning in a selective sampling scenario. We propose a new method that builds an ensemble classifier. Based on an evaluation of the inconsistency of the decisions of the individual base classifiers for a given observation, a decision is made on whether to request a new label or use the self-labeling. In preliminary studies, we show that naive application of self-labeling can harm performance by introducing bias towards selected classes and consequently lead to skewed class distribution. Hence, we also propose mechanisms to reduce this phenomenon. Experimental evaluation shows that the proposed method matches current selective sampling methods or achieves better results.

Jan Wasilewski, Jędrzej Kozal, Michał Woźniak et al.

Continual learning (CL) systems often forget previously acquired knowledge, yet the mechanisms driving forgetting remain hard to isolate in practice because real datasets entangle many factors. We present a controlled, toy-world framework that makes these mechanisms observable and testable. Using a synthetic generator-separator pipeline, we define ground-truth latent features, build tasks with tunable sparsity and overlap, and introduce measurable quantities for representation strength and superposition (directional overlap among features). We then study retention dynamics-the temporal change of representation strength by fitting sparse dynamical relations (via SINDy) between retention, superposition, and exposure history. A complementary task-level analysis based on effective rank characterizes how representational capacity is allocated across tasks. Our controlled experiments yield three takeaways. (1) Superposition tends to increase over time with transient dips at task boundaries, suggesting boundary-specific interference rather than steady drift. (2) Higher feature sparsity induces more superposition yet does not inevitably cause forgetting; when representations remain strong, forgetting can be reduced despite overlap. (3) Task-level effective rank grows with sparsity, indicating broader capacity usage under sparse regimes. Together, these results nuance the common intuition that more superposition leads to more forgetting by showing that overlap interacts with representation strength and capacity allocation. Our toy analysis provides falsifiable hypotheses and diagnostic tools for CL.

Jędrzej Kozal, Michał Woźniak

Purpose: We propose a novel method for continual learning based on the increasing depth of neural networks. This work explores whether extending neural network depth may be beneficial in a life-long learning setting. Methods: We propose a novel approach based on adding new layers on top of existing ones to enable the forward transfer of knowledge and adapting previously learned representations. We employ a method of determining the most similar tasks for selecting the best location in our network to add new nodes with trainable parameters. This approach allows for creating a tree-like model, where each node is a set of neural network parameters dedicated to a specific task. The Progressive Neural Network concept inspires the proposed method. Therefore, it benefits from dynamic changes in network structure. However, Progressive Neural Network allocates a lot of memory for the whole network structure during the learning process. The proposed method alleviates this by adding only part of a network for a new task and utilizing a subset of previously trained weights. At the same time, we may retain the benefit of PNN, such as no forgetting guaranteed by design, without needing a memory buffer. Results: Experiments on Split CIFAR and Split Tiny ImageNet show that the proposed algorithm is on par with other continual learning methods. In a more challenging setup with a single computer vision dataset as a separate task, our method outperforms Experience Replay. Conclusion: It is compatible with commonly used computer vision architectures and does not require a custom network structure. As an adaptation to changing data distribution is made by expanding the architecture, there is no need to utilize a rehearsal buffer. For this reason, our method could be used for sensitive applications where data privacy must be considered.

Jędrzej Kozal, Filip Guzy, Michał Woźniak

Modern analytical systems must be ready to process streaming data and correctly respond to data distribution changes. The phenomenon of changes in data distributions is called concept drift, and it may harm the quality of the used models. Additionally, the possibility of concept drift appearance causes that the used algorithms must be ready for the continuous adaptation of the model to the changing data distributions. This work focuses on non-stationary data stream classification, where a classifier ensemble is used. To keep the ensemble model up to date, the new base classifiers are trained on the incoming data blocks and added to the ensemble while, at the same time, outdated models are removed from the ensemble. One of the problems with this type of model is the fast reaction to changes in data distributions. We propose a new Chunk Adaptive Restoration framework that can be adapted to any block-based data stream classification algorithm. The proposed algorithm adjusts the data chunk size in the case of concept drift detection to minimize the impact of the change on the predictive performance of the used model. The conducted experimental research, backed up with the statistical tests, has proven that Chunk Adaptive Restoration significantly reduces the model's restoration time.