Eric M. Schwartz

Patrick Walters, Rushikesh Kamalapurkar, Forrest Voight et al.

Online approximation of the optimal station keeping strategy for a fully actuated six degrees-of-freedom marine craft subject to an irrotational ocean current is considered. An approximate solution to the optimal control problem is obtained using an adaptive dynamic programming technique. The hydrodynamic drift dynamics of the dynamic model are assumed to be unknown; therefore, a concurrent learning-based system identifier is developed to identify the unknown model parameters. The identified model is used to implement an adaptive model-based reinforcement learning technique to estimate the unknown value function. The developed policy guarantees uniformly ultimately bounded convergence of the vehicle to the desired station and uniformly ultimately bounded convergence of the approximated policies to the optimal polices without the requirement of persistence of excitation. The developed strategy is validated using an autonomous underwater vehicle, where the three degrees-of-freedom in the horizontal plane are regulated. The experiments are conducted in a second-magnitude spring located in central Florida.

Tong Li, Thiago de Queiroz Casanova, Eric M. Schwartz et al.

Real-world contextual bandit problems with complex reward models are often tackled with iteratively trained models, such as boosting trees. However, it is difficult to directly apply simple and effective exploration strategies--such as Thompson Sampling or UCB--on top of those black-box estimators. Existing approaches rely on sophisticated assumptions or intractable procedures that are hard to verify and implement in practice. In this work, we explore the use of an exploration-free (pure-greedy) action selection strategy, that exploits the randomness inherent in model fitting process as an intrinsic source of exploration. More specifically, we note that the stochasticity in cross-validation based regularization process can naturally induce Thompson Sampling-like exploration. We show that this regularization-induced exploration is theoretically equivalent to Thompson Sampling in the two-armed bandit case and empirically leads to reliable exploration in large-scale business environments compared to benchmark methods such as epsilon-greedy and other state-of-the-art approaches. Overall, our work reveals how regularized estimator training itself can induce effective exploration, offering both theoretical insight and practical guidance for contextual bandit design.

Tong Li, Jacob Nogas, Haochen Song et al.

Traditional randomized A/B experiments assign arms with uniform random (UR) probability, such as 50/50 assignment to two versions of a website to discover whether one version engages users more. To more quickly and automatically use data to benefit users, multi-armed bandit algorithms such as Thompson Sampling (TS) have been advocated. While TS is interpretable and incorporates the randomization key to statistical inference, it can cause biased estimates and increase false positives and false negatives in detecting differences in arm means. We introduce a more Statistically Sensitive algorithm, TS-PostDiff (Posterior Probability of Small Difference), that mixes TS with traditional UR by using an additional adaptive step, where the probability of using UR (vs TS) is proportional to the posterior probability that the difference in arms is small. This allows an experimenter to define what counts as a small difference, below which a traditional UR experiment can obtain informative data for statistical inference at low cost, and above which using more TS to maximize user benefits is key. We evaluate TS-PostDiff against UR, TS, and two other TS variants designed to improve statistical inference. We consider results for the common two-armed experiment across a range of settings inspired by real-world applications. Our results provide insight into when and why TS-PostDiff or alternative approaches provide better tradeoffs between benefiting users (reward) and statistical inference (false positive rate and power). TS-PostDiff's adaptivity helps efficiently reduce false positives and increase statistical power when differences are small, while increasing reward more when differences are large. The work highlights important considerations for future Statistically Sensitive algorithm development that balances reward and statistical analysis in adaptive experimentation.