Graham Wild

Aziida Nanyonga, Hassan Wasswa, Ugur Turhan et al.

Safety is a critical aspect of the air transport system given even slight operational anomalies can result in serious consequences. To reduce the chances of aviation safety occurrences, accidents and incidents are reported to establish the root cause, propose safety recommendations etc. However, analysis narratives of the pre-accident events are presented using human-understandable, raw, unstructured, text that a computer system cannot understand. The ability to classify and categorise safety occurrences from their textual narratives would help aviation industry stakeholders make informed safety-critical decisions. To classify and categorise safety occurrences, we applied natural language processing (NLP) and AI (Artificial Intelligence) models to process text narratives. The study aimed to answer the question. How well can the damage level caused to the aircraft in a safety occurrence be inferred from the text narrative using natural language processing. The classification performance of various deep learning models including LSTM, BLSTM, GRU, sRNN, and combinations of these models including LSTM and GRU, BLSTM+GRU, sRNN and LSTM, sRNN and BLSTM, sRNN and GRU, sRNN and BLSTM and GRU, and sRNN and LSTM and GRU was evaluated on a set of 27,000 safety occurrence reports from the NTSB. The results of this study indicate that all models investigated performed competitively well recording an accuracy of over 87.9% which is well above the random guess of 25% for a four-class classification problem. Also, the models recorded high precision, recall, and F1 scores above 80%, 88%, and 85%, respectively. sRNN slightly outperformed other single models in terms of recall (90%) and accuracy (90%) while LSTM reported slightly better performance in terms of precision (87%).

Aziida Nanyonga, Hassan Wasswa, Oleksandra Molloy et al.

The air transport system recognizes the criticality of safety, as even minor anomalies can have severe consequences. Reporting accidents and incidents play a vital role in identifying their causes and proposing safety recommendations. However, the narratives describing pre-accident events are presented in unstructured text that is not easily understood by computer systems. Classifying and categorizing safety occurrences based on these narratives can support informed decision-making by aviation industry stakeholders. In this study, researchers applied natural language processing (NLP) and artificial intelligence (AI) models to process text narratives to classify the flight phases of safety occurrences. The classification performance of two deep learning models, ResNet and sRNN was evaluated, using an initial dataset of 27,000 safety occurrence reports from the NTSB. The results demonstrated good performance, with both models achieving an accuracy exceeding 68%, well above the random guess rate of 14% for a seven-class classification problem. The models also exhibited high precision, recall, and F1 scores. The sRNN model greatly outperformed the simplified ResNet model architecture used in this study. These findings indicate that NLP and deep learning models can infer the flight phase from raw text narratives, enabling effective analysis of safety occurrences.

Aziida Nanyonga, Keith Joiner, Ugur Turhan et al.

This study explores using Natural Language Processing in aviation safety, focusing on machine learning algorithms to enhance safety measures. There are currently May 2024, 34 Scopus results from the keyword search natural language processing and aviation safety. Analyzing these studies allows us to uncover trends in the methodologies, findings and implications of NLP in aviation. Both qualitative and quantitative tools have been used to investigate the current state of literature on NLP for aviation safety. The qualitative analysis summarises the research motivations, objectives, and outcomes, showing how NLP can be utilized to help identify critical safety issues and improve aviation safety. This study also identifies research gaps and suggests areas for future exploration, providing practical recommendations for the aviation industry. We discuss challenges in implementing NLP in aviation safety, such as the need for large, annotated datasets, and the difficulty in interpreting complex models. We propose solutions like active learning for data annotation and explainable AI for model interpretation. Case studies demonstrate the successful application of NLP in improving aviation safety, highlighting its potential to make aviation safer and more efficient.

Aziida Nanyonga, Hassan Wasswa, Graham Wild

Aviation safety is paramount, demanding precise analysis of safety occurrences during different flight phases. This study employs Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Deep Learning models, including LSTM, CNN, Bidirectional LSTM (BLSTM), and simple Recurrent Neural Networks (sRNN), to classify flight phases in safety reports from the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB). The models exhibited high accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 scores, with LSTM achieving the highest performance of 87%, 88%, 87%, and 88%, respectively. This performance highlights their effectiveness in automating safety occurrence analysis. The integration of NLP and Deep Learning technologies promises transformative enhancements in aviation safety analysis, enabling targeted safety measures and streamlined report handling.

Aziida Nanyonga, Hassan Wasswa, Graham Wild

Aviation safety is paramount in the modern world, with a continuous commitment to reducing accidents and improving safety standards. Central to this endeavor is the analysis of aviation accident reports, rich textual resources that hold insights into the causes and contributing factors behind aviation mishaps. This paper compares two prominent topic modeling techniques, Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF), in the context of aviation accident report analysis. The study leverages the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Dataset with the primary objective of automating and streamlining the process of identifying latent themes and patterns within accident reports. The Coherence Value (C_v) metric was used to evaluate the quality of generated topics. LDA demonstrates higher topic coherence, indicating stronger semantic relevance among words within topics. At the same time, NMF excelled in producing distinct and granular topics, enabling a more focused analysis of specific aspects of aviation accidents.

Aziida Nanyonga, Hassan Wasswa, Graham Wild

Safety is the main concern in the aviation industry, where even minor operational issues can lead to serious consequences. This study addresses the need for comprehensive aviation accident analysis by leveraging natural language processing (NLP) and advanced AI models to classify the phase of flight from unstructured aviation accident analysis narratives. The research aims to determine whether the phase of flight can be inferred from narratives of post-accident events using NLP techniques. The classification performance of various deep learning models was evaluated. For single RNN-based models, LSTM achieved an accuracy of 63%, precision 60%, and recall 61%. BiLSTM recorded an accuracy of 64%, precision 63%, and a recall of 64%. GRU exhibited balanced performance with an accuracy and recall of 60% and a precision of 63%. Joint RNN-based models further enhanced predictive capabilities. GRU-LSTM, LSTM-BiLSTM, and GRU-BiLSTM demonstrated accuracy rates of 62%, 67%, and 60%, respectively, showcasing the benefits of combining these architectures. To provide a comprehensive overview of model performance, single and combined models were compared in terms of the various metrics. These results underscore the models' capacity to classify the phase of flight from raw text narratives, equipping aviation industry stakeholders with valuable insights for proactive decision-making. Therefore, this research signifies a substantial advancement in the application of NLP and deep learning models to enhance aviation safety.

Aziida Nanyonga, Hassan Wasswa, Ugur Turhan et al.

Aviation safety is a global concern, requiring detailed investigations into incidents to understand contributing factors comprehensively. This study uses the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) dataset. It applies advanced natural language processing (NLP) techniques, including Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), Non-Negative Matrix Factorization (NMF), Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA), Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (pLSA), and K-means clustering. The main objectives are identifying latent themes, exploring semantic relationships, assessing probabilistic connections, and cluster incidents based on shared characteristics. This research contributes to aviation safety by providing insights into incident narratives and demonstrating the versatility of NLP and topic modelling techniques in extracting valuable information from complex datasets. The results, including topics identified from various techniques, provide an understanding of recurring themes. Comparative analysis reveals that LDA performed best with a coherence value of 0.597, pLSA of 0.583, LSA of 0.542, and NMF of 0.437. K-means clustering further reveals commonalities and unique insights into incident narratives. In conclusion, this study uncovers latent patterns and thematic structures within incident narratives, offering a comparative analysis of multiple-topic modelling techniques. Future research avenues include exploring temporal patterns, incorporating additional datasets, and developing predictive models for early identification of safety issues. This research lays the groundwork for enhancing the understanding and improvement of aviation safety by utilising the wealth of information embedded in incident narratives.

Aziida Nanyonga, Hassan Wasswa, Ugur Turhan et al.

Improvements in aviation safety analysis call for innovative techniques to extract valuable insights from the abundance of textual data available in accident reports. This paper explores the application of four prominent topic modelling techniques, namely Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (pLSA), Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA), Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), and Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF), to dissect aviation incident narratives using the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) dataset. The study examines each technique's ability to unveil latent thematic structures within the data, providing safety professionals with a systematic approach to gain actionable insights. Through a comparative analysis, this research not only showcases the potential of these methods in aviation safety but also elucidates their distinct advantages and limitations.

Aziida Nanyonga, Hassan Wasswa, Graham Wild

Given the paramount importance of safety in the aviation industry, even minor operational anomalies can have significant consequences. Comprehensive documentation of incidents and accidents serves to identify root causes and propose safety measures. However, the unstructured nature of incident event narratives poses a challenge for computer systems to interpret. Our study aimed to leverage Natural Language Processing (NLP) and deep learning models to analyze these narratives and classify the aircraft damage level incurred during safety occurrences. Through the implementation of LSTM, BLSTM, GRU, and sRNN deep learning models, our research yielded promising results, with all models showcasing competitive performance, achieving an accuracy of over 88% significantly surpassing the 25% random guess threshold for a four-class classification problem. Notably, the sRNN model emerged as the top performer in terms of recall and accuracy, boasting a remarkable 89%. These findings underscore the potential of NLP and deep learning models in extracting actionable insights from unstructured text narratives, particularly in evaluating the extent of aircraft damage within the realm of aviation safety occurrences.

Aziida Nanyonga, Graham Wild

Ensuring safety in the aviation industry is critical, even minor anomalies can lead to severe consequences. This study evaluates the performance of four different models for DP (deep learning), including: Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BLSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Simple Recurrent Neural Networks (sRNN), on a multi-class classification task involving Commercial, Military, and Private categories using the Socrata aviation dataset of 4,864 records. The models were assessed using a classification report, confusion matrix analysis, accuracy metrics, validation loss and accuracy curves. Among the models, BLSTM achieved the highest overall accuracy of 72%, demonstrating superior performance in stability and balanced classification, while LSTM followed closely with 71%, excelling in recall for the Commercial class. CNN and sRNN exhibited lower accuracies of 67% and 69%, with significant misclassifications in the Private class. While the results highlight the strengths of BLSTM and LSTM in handling sequential dependencies and complex classification tasks, all models faced challenges with class imbalance, particularly in predicting the Military and Private categories. Addressing these limitations through data augmentation, advanced feature engineering, and ensemble learning techniques could enhance classification accuracy and robustness. This study underscores the importance of selecting appropriate architectures for domain specific tasks

Aziida Nanyonga, Graham Wild

The volume of textual data available in aviation safety reports presents a challenge for timely and accurate analysis. This paper examines how Artificial Intelligence (AI) and, specifically, Natural Language Processing (NLP) can automate the process of extracting valuable insights from this data, ultimately enhancing aviation safety. The paper reviews ongoing efforts focused on the application of NLP and deep learning to aviation safety reports, with the goal of classifying the level of damage to an aircraft and identifying the phase of flight during which safety occurrences happen. Additionally, the paper explores the use of Topic Modeling (TM) to uncover latent thematic structures within aviation incident reports, aiming to identify recurring patterns and potential areas for safety improvement. The paper compares and contrasts the performance of various deep learning models and TM techniques applied to datasets from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB), as well as the Aviation Safety Network (ASN), discussing the impact of dataset size and source on the accuracy of the analysis. The findings demonstrate that both NLP and deep learning, as well as TM, can significantly improve the efficiency and accuracy of aviation safety analysis, paving the way for more proactive safety management and risk mitigation strategies.

Aziida Nanyonga, Graham Wild

This study explores the application of topic modelling techniques Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (NMF), and Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (PLSA) on the Socrata dataset spanning from 1908 to 2009. Categorized by operator type (military, commercial, and private), the analysis identified key themes such as pilot error, mechanical failure, weather conditions, and training deficiencies. The study highlights the unique strengths of each method: LDA ability to uncover overlapping themes, NMF production of distinct and interpretable topics, and PLSA nuanced probabilistic insights despite interpretative complexity. Statistical analysis revealed that PLSA achieved a coherence score of 0.32 and a perplexity value of -4.6, NMF scored 0.34 and 37.1, while LDA achieved the highest coherence of 0.36 but recorded the highest perplexity at 38.2. These findings demonstrate the value of topic modelling in extracting actionable insights from unstructured aviation safety narratives, aiding in the identification of risk factors and areas for improvement across sectors. Future directions include integrating additional contextual variables, leveraging neural topic models, and enhancing aviation safety protocols. This research provides a foundation for advanced text-mining applications in aviation safety management.

Graham Wild, Glenn Baxter, Pannarat Srisaeng et al.

In this work we compare the performance of several machine learning algorithms applied to the problem of modelling air transport demand. Forecasting in the air transport industry is an essential part of planning and managing because of the economic and financial aspects of the industry. The traditional approach used in airline operations as specified by the International Civil Aviation Organization is the use of a multiple linear regression (MLR) model, utilizing cost variables and economic factors. Here, the performance of models utilizing an artificial neural network (ANN), an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), a genetic algorithm, a support vector machine, and a regression tree are compared to MLR. The ANN and ANFIS had the best performance in terms of the lowest mean squared error.