Timm Faulwasser

Christopher M. Kellett, Steven R. Weller, Timm Faulwasser et al.

For his work in the economics of climate change, Professor William Nordhaus was a co-recipient of the 2018 Nobel Memorial Prize for Economic Sciences. A core component of the work undertaken by Nordhaus is the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and Economy, known as the DICE model. The DICE model is a discrete-time model with two control inputs and is primarily used in conjunction with a particular optimal control problem in order to estimate optimal pathways for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we provide a tutorial introduction to the DICE model and we indicate challenges and open problems of potential interest for the systems and control community.

Alexander Engelmann, Yuning Jiang, Boris Houska et al.

Decentralized optimization algorithms are important in different contexts, such as distributed optimal power flow or distributed model predictive control, as they avoid central coordination and enable decomposition of large-scale problems. In case of constrained non-convex optimization only a few algorithms are currently are available; often their performance is limited, or they lack convergence guarantees. This paper proposes a framework for decentralized non-convex optimization via bi-level distribution of the Augmented Lagrangian Alternating Direction Inexact Newton (ALADIN) algorithm. Bi-level distribution means that the outer ALADIN structure is combined with an inner distribution/decentralization level solving a condensed variant of ALADIN's convex coordination QP by decentralized algorithms. We prove sufficient conditions ensuring local convergence while allowing for inexact decentralized/distributed solutions of the coordination QP. Moreover, we show how a decentralized variant of conjugate gradient or decentralized ADMM schemes can be employed at the inner level. We draw upon case studies from power systems and robotics to illustrate the performance of the proposed framework.

Tillmann Mühlpfordt, Timm Faulwasser, Veit Hagenmeyer

Deregulated energy markets, demand forecasting, and the continuously increasing share of renewable energy sources call---among others---for a structured consideration of uncertainties in optimal power flow problems. The main challenge is to guarantee power balance while maintaining economic and secure operation. In the presence of Gaussian uncertainties affine feedback policies are known to be viable options for this task. The present paper advocates a general framework for chance-constrained OPF problems in terms of continuous random variables. It is shown that, irrespective of the type of distribution, the random-variable minimizers lead to affine feedback policies. Introducing a three-step methodology that exploits polynomial chaos expansion, the present paper provides a constructive approach to chance-constrained optimal power flow problems that does not assume a specific distribution, e.g. Gaussian, for the uncertainties. We illustrate our findings by means of a tutorial example and a 300-bus test case.

R. R. Appino, J. Á. González Ordiano, R. Mikut et al.

Dispatchability of renewable energy sources and inflexible loads can be achieved using a volatility-compensating energy storage. However, as the future power outputs of the inflexible devices are uncertain, the computation of a dispatch schedule for such aggregated systems is non-trivial. In the present paper, we propose a novel scheduling method that enforces the feasibility of the dispatch schedule with a pre-determined probability based on a description of the operation of the system as a two-stage decision process. Thereby, a crucial point is the use of probabilistic forecasts, in terms of cumulative density function, of the inflexible energy consumption/production profile. Then, for the sake of comparison, we introduce a second scheduling method based on state-of-the-art scenario optimization, where, unlike the proposed method, the focus is on the minimization of the expected final cost. We draw upon simulations based on real consumption and production data to compare the methods and illustrate our findings.

Xu Du, Alexander Engelmann, Yuning Jiang et al.

This paper proposes a structure exploiting algorithm for solving non-convex power system state estimation problems in distributed fashion. Because the power flow equations in large electrical grid networks are non-convex equality constraints, we develop a tailored state estimator based on Augmented Lagrangian Alternating Direction Inexact Newton (ALADIN) method, which can handle the nonlinearities efficiently. Here, our focus is on using Gauss-Newton Hessian approximations within ALADIN in order to arrive at at an efficient (computationally and communicationally) variant of ALADIN for network maximum likelihood estimation problems. Analyzing the IEEE 30-Bus system we illustrate how the proposed algorithm can be used to solve highly non-trivial network state estimation problems. We also compare the method with existing distributed parameter estimation codes in order to illustrate its performance.

Tillmann Mühlpfordt, Veit Hagenmeyer, Timm Faulwasser

The operation of power systems has become more challenging due to feed-in of volatile renewable energy sources. Chance-constrained optimal power flow (ccOPF) is one possibility to explicitly consider volatility via probabilistic uncertainties resulting in mean-optimal feedback policies. These policies are computed before knowledge of the realization of the uncertainty is available. On the other hand, the hypothetical case of computing the power injections knowing every realization beforehand---called in-hindsight OPF(hOPF)---cannot be outperformed w.r.t. costs and constraint satisfaction. In this paper, we investigate how ccOPF feedback relates to the full-information hOPF. To this end, we introduce different dimensions of the price of uncertainty. Using mild assumptions on the uncertainty we present sufficient conditions when ccOPF is identical to hOPF. We suggest using the total variational distance of probability densities to quantify the performance gap of hOPF and ccOPF. Finally, we draw upon a tutorial example to illustrate our results.

Ruchuan Ou, Guanru Pan, Timm Faulwasser

Recently, the fundamental lemma by Willems et al. has been extended towards stochastic LTI systems subject to process disturbances. Using this lemma requires previously recorded data of inputs, outputs, and disturbances. In this paper, we exploit causality concepts of stochastic control to propose a variant of the stochastic fundamental lemma that does not require past disturbance data in the Hankel matrices. Our developments rely on polynomial chaos expansions and on the knowledge of the disturbance distribution. Similar to our previous results, the proposed variant of the fundamental lemma allows to predict future input-output trajectories of stochastic LTI systems. We draw upon a numerical example to illustrate the proposed variant in data-driven control context.

Johannes Teutsch, Oleksii Molodchyk, Marion Leibold et al.

Providing non-conservative uncertainty quantification for function estimates derived from noisy observations remains a fundamental challenge in statistical machine learning, particularly for applications in safety-critical domains. In this work, we propose novel non-asymptotic probabilistic uniform error bounds for kernel-based regression. Compared to related bounds in the literature that are restricted to (conditionally) independent sub-Gaussian noise, our bounds allow to consider a broad class of non-Gaussian distributions, such as sub-Gaussian, bounded, sub-exponential, and variance/moment-bounded noise. Moreover, our results apply to correlated and uncorrelated noise. We compare our proposed error bounds with existing results in terms of the induced uncertainty region and their performance in safe control, demonstrating the tightness of the proposed bounds.

Timm Faulwasser, Alexander Engelmann

Recently there has been considerable progress on the analysis of stability and performance properties of so-called economic Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) schemes; i.e. NMPC schemes employing stage costs that are not directly related to distance measures of pre-computed setpoints. At the same time, with respect to the energy transition, the use of NMPC schemes is proposed and investigated in a plethora of papers in different contexts. For example receding-horizon approaches to generator dispatch problems, which is also known as multi-stage Optimal Power Flow (OPF), naturally lead to economic NMPC schemes based on non-convex discrete-time Optimal Control Problems (OCP). The present paper investigates the transfer of analytic results available for general economic NMPC schemes to receding-horizon multistage OPF. We propose a blueprint formulation of multi-stage opf including AC power flow equations. Based on this formulation we present results on the dissipativity and recursive feasibility properties of the underlying OCP. Finally, we draw upon simulations using a 5 bus system and a 118 bus system to illustrate our findings.

Oleksii Molodchyk, Timm Faulwasser

Generalizations and variations of the fundamental lemma by Willems et al. are an active topic of recent research. In this note, we explore and formalize the links between kernel regression and some known nonlinear extensions of the fundamental lemma. Applying a transformation to the usual linear equation in Hankel matrices, we arrive at an alternative implicit kernel representation of the system trajectories while keeping the requirements on persistency of excitation. We show that this representation is equivalent to the solution of a specific kernel regression problem. We explore the possible structures of the underlying kernel as well as the system classes to which they correspond.

Oleksii Molodchyk, Johannes Teutsch, Timm Faulwasser

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a data-driven strategy for minimizing/maximizing black-box functions based on probabilistic surrogate models. In the presence of safety constraints, the performance of BO crucially relies on tight probabilistic error bounds related to the uncertainty surrounding the surrogate model. For the case of Gaussian Process surrogates and Gaussian measurement noise, we present a novel error bound based on the recently proposed Wiener kernel regression. We prove that under rather mild assumptions, the proposed error bound is tighter than bounds previously documented in the literature, leading to enlarged safety regions. We draw upon a numerical example to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed error bound in safe BO.

Timm Faulwasser, Arne-Jens Hempel, Stefan Streif

It is well-known that the training of Deep Neural Networks (DNN) can be formalized in the language of optimal control. In this context, this paper leverages classical turnpike properties of optimal control problems to attempt a quantifiable answer to the question of how many layers should be considered in a DNN. The underlying assumption is that the number of neurons per layer -- i.e., the width of the DNN -- is kept constant. Pursuing a different route than the classical analysis of approximation properties of sigmoidal functions, we prove explicit bounds on the required depths of DNNs based on asymptotic reachability assumptions and a dissipativity-inducing choice of the regularization terms in the training problem. Numerical results obtained for the two spiral task data set for classification indicate that the proposed estimates can provide non-conservative depth bounds.

T. Mühlpfordt, L. Roald, V. Hagenmeyer et al.

As the share of renewables in the grid increases, the operation of power systems becomes more challenging. The present paper proposes a method to formulate and solve chance-constrained optimal power flow while explicitly considering the full nonlinear AC power flow equations and stochastic uncertainties. We use polynomial chaos expansion to model the effects of arbitrary uncertainties of finite variance, which enables to predict and optimize the system state for a range of operating conditions. We apply chance constraints to limit the probability of violations of inequality constraints. Our method incorporates a more detailed and a more flexible description of both the controllable variables and the resulting system state than previous methods. Two case studies highlight the efficacy of the method, with a focus on satisfaction of the AC power flow equations and on the accurate computation of moments of all random variables.

Alexander Engelmann, Timm Faulwasser

This paper investigates the role of feasible initial guesses and large consensus-violation penalization in distributed optimization for Optimal Power Flow (OPF) problems. Specifically, we discuss the behavior of the Alternating Direction of Multipliers Method (ADMM). We show that in case of large consensus-violation penalization ADMM might exhibit slow progress. We support this observation by an analysis of the algorithmic properties of ADMM. Furthermore, we illustrate our findings considering the IEEE 57 bus system and we draw upon a comparison of ADMM and the Augmented Lagrangian Alternating Direction Inexact Newton (ALADIN) method.