Hans Gundlach

Alexander K. Saeri, Jess Graham, Michael Noetel et al.

Artificial intelligence poses many risks, ranging from familiar present-day harms to unprecedented and potentially catastrophic ones. Effective risk management requires prioritization: we must understand which risks are most severe, who is most vulnerable, and who is most responsible for addressing them. We report results from a three-round Delphi study conducted late 2025 with 272 international AI experts. Experts rated 24 AI risks on harm probability and severity, sector and actor vulnerability, actor responsibility, and overall concern. Experts estimated the five most severe harms in the next 5 years were likely to come from dangerous capabilities, competitive dynamics, weapons & cyberattacks (including CBRNE), power centralization, and false information. In a business-as-usual scenario, experts judged 18 of 24 risks as having a more than 10% probability of catastrophic outcomes (e.g., more than 1 million deaths or more than USD 100B in financial loss) in the next 5 years (2025-2030). In a scenario where pragmatic mitigations are implemented, experts still judged five risks as having a more than 10% probability of catastrophic outcomes: dangerous capabilities, weapons & cyberattacks, environmental harm, inequality & unemployment, and power centralization. All 24 risks were judged as being more than 5% likely to cause catastrophic outcomes. AI users and the general public were judged the most vulnerable to these risks, but experts assigned the highest responsibility for addressing them to general-purpose AI developers and governance actors (including governments, regulators, and standards bodies). Across most risks, experts identified information, finance, and national security as the most vulnerable sectors. These findings can guide AI risk prioritization and clarify expert expectations about who should bear responsibility for mitigation.

Long Phan, Alice Gatti, Ziwen Han et al. · amazon-science, apple-ml

Benchmarks are important tools for tracking the rapid advancements in large language model (LLM) capabilities. However, benchmarks are not keeping pace in difficulty: LLMs now achieve over 90\% accuracy on popular benchmarks like MMLU, limiting informed measurement of state-of-the-art LLM capabilities. In response, we introduce Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), a multi-modal benchmark at the frontier of human knowledge, designed to be the final closed-ended academic benchmark of its kind with broad subject coverage. HLE consists of 2,500 questions across dozens of subjects, including mathematics, humanities, and the natural sciences. HLE is developed globally by subject-matter experts and consists of multiple-choice and short-answer questions suitable for automated grading. Each question has a known solution that is unambiguous and easily verifiable, but cannot be quickly answered via internet retrieval. State-of-the-art LLMs demonstrate low accuracy and calibration on HLE, highlighting a significant gap between current LLM capabilities and the expert human frontier on closed-ended academic questions. To inform research and policymaking upon a clear understanding of model capabilities, we publicly release HLE at https://lastexam.ai.

Aritra Roy, Kevin Shen, Andrew MacBride et al.

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly changing how researchers in materials science and chemistry discover, organize, and act on scientific knowledge. This paper analyzes a broad set of community-developed LLM applications in an effort to identify emerging patterns in how these systems can be used across the scientific research lifecycle. We organize the projects into two complementary categories: Knowledge Infrastructure, systems that structure, retrieve, synthesize, and validate scientific information; and Action Systems, systems that execute, coordinate, or automate scientific work across computational and experimental environments. The submissions reveal a shift from single-purpose LLM tools toward integrated, multi-agent workflows that combine retrieval, reasoning, tool use, and domain-specific validation. Prominent themes include retrieval-augmented generation as grounding infrastructure, persistent structured knowledge representations, multimodal and multilingual scientific inputs, and early progress toward laboratory-integrated closed-loop systems. Together, these results suggest that LLMs are evolving from general-purpose assistants into composable infrastructure for scientific reasoning and action. This work provides a community snapshot of that transition and a practical taxonomy for understanding emerging LLM-enabled workflows in materials science and chemistry.

Hans Gundlach, Alex Fogelson, Jayson Lynch et al.

Algorithms have been estimated to increase AI training FLOP efficiency by a factor of 22,000 between 2012 and 2023 [Ho et al., 2024]. Running small-scale ablation experiments on key innovations from this time period, we are able to account for less than 10x of these gains. Surveying the broader literature, we estimate that additional innovations not included in our ablations account for less than 10x, yielding a total under 100x. This leads us to conduct scaling experiments, which reveal that much of this efficiency gap can be explained by algorithms with scale-dependent efficiency improvements. In particular, we conduct scaling experiments between LSTMs and Transformers, finding exponent differences in their compute-optimal scaling law while finding little scaling difference for many other innovations. These experiments demonstrate that - contrary to standard assumptions - an algorithm's efficiency gains are tied to compute scale. Using experimental extrapolation and literature estimates, we account for 6,930x efficiency gains over the same time period, with the scale-dependent LSTM-to-Transformer transition accounting for the majority of gains. Our results indicate that algorithmic progress for small models has been far slower than previously assumed, and that measures of algorithmic efficiency are strongly reference-dependent.

Hans Gundlach, Hrvoje Kukina, Jayson Lynch et al.

Quantum computing technology is advancing rapidly. Yet, even accounting for these trends, a quantum leap would be needed for quantum computers to meaningfully impact deep learning over the coming decade or two. We arrive at this conclusion based on a first-of-its-kind survey of quantum algorithms and how they match potential deep learning applications. This survey reveals three important areas where quantum computing could potentially accelerate deep learning, each of which faces a challenging roadblock to realizing its potential. First, quantum algorithms for matrix multiplication and other algorithms central to deep learning offer small theoretical improvements in the number of operations needed, but this advantage is overwhelmed on practical problem sizes by how slowly quantum computers do each operation. Second, some promising quantum algorithms depend on practical Quantum Random Access Memory (QRAM), which is underdeveloped. Finally, there are quantum algorithms that offer large theoretical advantages, but which are only applicable to special cases, limiting their practical benefits. In each of these areas, we support our arguments using quantitative forecasts of quantum advantage that build on the work by Choi et al. [2023] as well as new research on limitations and quantum hardware trends. Our analysis outlines the current scope of quantum deep learning and points to research directions that could lead to greater practical advances in the field.

Andrew Gritsevskiy, Arjun Panickssery, Aaron Kirtland et al.

We propose a new benchmark evaluating the performance of multimodal large language models on rebus puzzles. The dataset covers 333 original examples of image-based wordplay, cluing 13 categories such as movies, composers, major cities, and food. To achieve good performance on the benchmark of identifying the clued word or phrase, models must combine image recognition and string manipulation with hypothesis testing, multi-step reasoning, and an understanding of human cognition, making for a complex, multimodal evaluation of capabilities. We find that GPT-4o significantly outperforms all other models, followed by proprietary models outperforming all other evaluated models. However, even the best model has a final accuracy of only 42\%, which goes down to just 7\% on hard puzzles, highlighting the need for substantial improvements in reasoning. Further, models rarely understand all parts of a puzzle, and are almost always incapable of retroactively explaining the correct answer. Our benchmark can therefore be used to identify major shortcomings in the knowledge and reasoning of multimodal large language models.

Hans Gundlach, Jayson Lynch, Matthias Mertens et al.

Language models have seen enormous progress on advanced benchmarks in recent years, but much of this progress has only been possible by using more costly models. Benchmarks may therefore present a warped picture of progress in practical capabilities per dollar. To remedy this, we use data from Artificial Analysis and Epoch AI to form the largest dataset of current and historical prices to run benchmarks to date. We find that the price for a given level of benchmark performance has decreased remarkably fast, around $5\times$ to $10\times$ per year, for frontier models on knowledge, reasoning, math, and software engineering benchmarks. These reductions in the cost of AI inference are due to economic forces, hardware efficiency improvements, and algorithmic efficiency improvements. Isolating out open models to control for competition effects and dividing by hardware price declines, we estimate that algorithmic efficiency progress is around $3\times$ per year. Finally, we recommend that evaluators both publicize and take into account the price of benchmarking as an essential part of measuring the real-world impact of AI.

Hans Gundlach, Jayson Lynch, Neil Thompson

The past decade has seen incredible scaling of AI systems by a few companies, leading to inequality in AI model performance. This paper argues that, contrary to prevailing intuition, the diminishing returns to compute scaling will lead to a convergence of AI model capabilities. In other words, meek models (those with limited computation budget) shall inherit the earth, approaching the performance level of the best models overall. We develop a model illustrating that under a fixed-distribution next-token objective, the marginal capability returns to raw compute shrink substantially. Given current scaling practices, we argue that these diminishing returns are strong enough that even companies that can scale their models exponentially faster than other organizations will eventually have little advantage in capabilities. As part of our argument, we give several reasons that proxies like training loss differences capture important capability measures using evidence from benchmark data and theoretical performance models. In addition, we analyze empirical data on the capability difference of AI models over time. Finally, in light of the increasing ability of meek models, we argue that AI strategy and policy require reexamination, and we outline the areas this shift will affect.

Jiahao Yao, Paul Köttering, Hans Gundlach et al.

Variational quantum eigensolvers have recently received increased attention, as they enable the use of quantum computing devices to find solutions to complex problems, such as the ground energy and ground state of strongly-correlated quantum many-body systems. In many applications, it is the optimization of both continuous and discrete parameters that poses a formidable challenge. Using reinforcement learning (RL), we present a hybrid policy gradient algorithm capable of simultaneously optimizing continuous and discrete degrees of freedom in an uncertainty-resilient way. The hybrid policy is modeled by a deep autoregressive neural network to capture causality. We employ the algorithm to prepare the ground state of the nonintegrable quantum Ising model in a unitary process, parametrized by a generalized quantum approximate optimization ansatz: the RL agent solves the discrete combinatorial problem of constructing the optimal sequences of unitaries out of a predefined set and, at the same time, it optimizes the continuous durations for which these unitaries are applied. We demonstrate the noise-robust features of the agent by considering three sources of uncertainty: classical and quantum measurement noise, and errors in the control unitary durations. Our work exhibits the beneficial synergy between reinforcement learning and quantum control.