Sudeepa Roy

Fangzhu Shen, Amir Gilad, Sudeepa Roy

The ubiquity of social platforms has reshaped the way information, behaviors, and advertisements diffuse across networks, with influence propagation often initiated by a small set of ``seed'' users. While much of the literature emphasizes optimizing seed selection to maximize spread, a critical yet underexplored question remains: how to fairly estimate the contributions of individual seeds ``ex-ante'', i.e., before the diffusion process occurs? This capability is essential for budget allocation, influencer pricing, and fair, privacy-preserving credit distribution under uncertainty, without relying on ex-post cascade logs that capture only a single execution of influence propagation. We introduce a framework for ex-ante influence attribution based on Shapley values from cooperative game theory, which capture each seed's marginal impact in a principled and equitable manner. Adapting Shapley values to influence propagation raises unique computational challenges due to the stochastic nature of diffusion and the intricate dependencies across network structures. To address these challenges, we design polynomial-time algorithms for the special case of single-step activation that is of independent practical interest, establish a sharp tractability boundary by proving $\#P$-hardness for any propagation beyond one step, and develop approximation algorithms with provable guarantees for the standard IC model as well as time-bounded variants. Empirical evaluation on real-world and synthetic networks demonstrates that our methods are both efficient and effective, offering a practical mechanism for ex-ante influence attribution.

Harsh Parikh, Marco Morucci, Vittorio Orlandi et al.

Experimental and observational studies often lack validity due to untestable assumptions. We propose a double machine learning approach to combine experimental and observational studies, allowing practitioners to test for assumption violations and estimate treatment effects consistently. Our framework proposes a falsification test for external validity and ignorability under milder assumptions. We provide consistent treatment effect estimators even when one of the assumptions is violated. However, our no-free-lunch theorem highlights the necessity of accurately identifying the violated assumption for consistent treatment effect estimation. Through comparative analyses, we show our framework's superiority over existing data fusion methods. The practical utility of our approach is further exemplified by three real-world case studies, underscoring its potential for widespread application in empirical research.

Seyedeh Baharan Khatami, Harsh Parikh, Haowei Chen et al.

We address the challenge of inferring causal effects in social network data. This results in challenges due to interference -- where a unit's outcome is affected by neighbors' treatments -- and network-induced confounding factors. While there is extensive literature focusing on estimating causal effects in social network setups, a majority of them make prior assumptions about the form of network-induced confounding mechanisms. Such strong assumptions are rarely likely to hold especially in high-dimensional networks. We propose a novel methodology that combines graph machine learning approaches with the double machine learning framework to enable accurate and efficient estimation of direct and peer effects using a single observational social network. We demonstrate the semiparametric efficiency of our proposed estimator under mild regularity conditions, allowing for consistent uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate that our method is accurate, robust, and scalable via an extensive simulation study. We use our method to investigate the impact of Self-Help Group participation on financial risk tolerance.

Chenjie Li, Amir Gilad, Boris Glavic et al.

Programmatic weak supervision (PWS) significantly reduces human effort for labeling data by combining the outputs of user-provided labeling functions (LFs) on unlabeled datapoints. However, the quality of the generated labels depends directly on the accuracy of the LFs. In this work, we study the problem of fixing LFs based on a small set of labeled examples. Towards this goal, we develop novel techniques for repairing a set of LFs by minimally changing their results on the labeled examples such that the fixed LFs ensure that (i) there is sufficient evidence for the correct label of each labeled datapoint and (ii) the accuracy of each repaired LF is sufficiently high. We model LFs as conditional rules which enables us to refine them, i.e., to selectively change their output for some inputs. We demonstrate experimentally that our system improves the quality of LFs based on surprisingly small sets of labeled datapoints.

Neha R. Gupta, Vittorio Orlandi, Chia-Rui Chang et al.

dame-flame is a Python package for performing matching for observational causal inference on datasets containing discrete covariates. This package implements the Dynamic Almost Matching Exactly (DAME) and Fast Large-Scale Almost Matching Exactly (FLAME) algorithms, which match treatment and control units on subsets of the covariates. The resulting matched groups are interpretable, because the matches are made on covariates, and high-quality, because machine learning is used to determine which covariates are important to match on. DAME solves an optimization problem that matches units on as many covariates as possible, prioritizing matches on important covariates. FLAME approximates the solution found by DAME via a much faster backward feature selection procedure. The package provides several adjustable parameters to adapt the algorithms to specific applications, and can calculate treatment effect estimates after matching. Descriptions of these parameters, details on estimating treatment effects, and further examples, can be found in the documentation at https://almost-matching-exactly.github.io/DAME-FLAME-Python-Package/

Yuchao Tao, Xi He, Ashwin Machanavajjhala et al.

Local sensitivity of a query Q given a database instance D, i.e. how much the output Q(D) changes when a tuple is added to D or deleted from D, has many applications including query analysis, outlier detection, and in differential privacy. However, it is NP-hard to find local sensitivity of a conjunctive query in terms of the size of the query, even for the class of acyclic queries. Although the complexity is polynomial when the query size is fixed, the naive algorithms are not efficient for large databases and queries involving multiple joins. In this paper, we present a novel approach to compute local sensitivity of counting queries involving join operations by tracking and summarizing tuple sensitivities -- the maximum change a tuple can cause in the query result when it is added or removed. We give algorithms for the sensitivity problem for full acyclic join queries using join trees, that run in polynomial time in both the size of the database and query for an interesting sub-class of queries, which we call 'doubly acyclic queries' that include path queries, and in polynomial time in combined complexity when the maximum degree in the join tree is bounded. Our algorithms can be extended to certain non-acyclic queries using generalized hypertree decompositions. We evaluate our approach experimentally, and show applications of our algorithms to obtain better results for differential privacy by orders of magnitude.

Babak Salimi, Harsh Parikh, Moe Kayali et al.

Causal inference is at the heart of empirical research in natural and social sciences and is critical for scientific discovery and informed decision making. The gold standard in causal inference is performing randomized controlled trials; unfortunately these are not always feasible due to ethical, legal, or cost constraints. As an alternative, methodologies for causal inference from observational data have been developed in statistical studies and social sciences. However, existing methods critically rely on restrictive assumptions such as the study population consisting of homogeneous elements that can be represented in a single flat table, where each row is referred to as a unit. In contrast, in many real-world settings, the study domain naturally consists of heterogeneous elements with complex relational structure, where the data is naturally represented in multiple related tables. In this paper, we present a formal framework for causal inference from such relational data. We propose a declarative language called CaRL for capturing causal background knowledge and assumptions and specifying causal queries using simple Datalog-like rules.CaRL provides a foundation for inferring causality and reasoning about the effect of complex interventions in relational domains. We present an extensive experimental evaluation on real relational data to illustrate the applicability of CaRL in social sciences and healthcare.

Marco Morucci, Vittorio Orlandi, Sudeepa Roy et al.

We propose a matching method for observational data that matches units with others in unit-specific, hyper-box-shaped regions of the covariate space. These regions are large enough that many matches are created for each unit and small enough that the treatment effect is roughly constant throughout. The regions are found as either the solution to a mixed integer program, or using a (fast) approximation algorithm. The result is an interpretable and tailored estimate of a causal effect for each unit.

M. Usaid Awan, Marco Morucci, Vittorio Orlandi et al.

We propose a matching method that recovers direct treatment effects from randomized experiments where units are connected in an observed network, and units that share edges can potentially influence each others' outcomes. Traditional treatment effect estimators for randomized experiments are biased and error prone in this setting. Our method matches units almost exactly on counts of unique subgraphs within their neighborhood graphs. The matches that we construct are interpretable and high-quality. Our method can be extended easily to accommodate additional unit-level covariate information. We show empirically that our method performs better than other existing methodologies for this problem, while producing meaningful, interpretable results.

M. Usaid Awan, Yameng Liu, Marco Morucci et al.

Uncertainty in the estimation of the causal effect in observational studies is often due to unmeasured confounding, i.e., the presence of unobserved covariates linking treatments and outcomes. Instrumental Variables (IV) are commonly used to reduce the effects of unmeasured confounding. Existing methods for IV estimation either require strong parametric assumptions, use arbitrary distance metrics, or do not scale well to large datasets. We propose a matching framework for IV in the presence of observed categorical confounders that addresses these weaknesses. Our method first matches units exactly, and then consecutively drops variables to approximately match the remaining units on as many variables as possible. We show that our algorithm constructs better matches than other existing methods on simulated datasets, and we produce interesting results in an application to political canvassing.

Yameng Liu, Aw Dieng, Sudeepa Roy et al.

We aim to create the highest possible quality of treatment-control matches for categorical data in the potential outcomes framework. Matching methods are heavily used in the social sciences due to their interpretability, but most matching methods do not pass basic sanity checks: they fail when irrelevant variables are introduced, and tend to be either computationally slow or produce low-quality matches. The method proposed in this work aims to match units on a weighted Hamming distance, taking into account the relative importance of the covariates; the algorithm aims to match units on as many relevant variables as possible. To do this, the algorithm creates a hierarchy of covariate combinations on which to match (similar to downward closure), in the process solving an optimization problem for each unit in order to construct the optimal matches. The algorithm uses a single dynamic program to solve all of the optimization problems simultaneously. Notable advantages of our method over existing matching procedures are its high-quality matches, versatility in handling different data distributions that may have irrelevant variables, and ability to handle missing data by matching on as many available covariates as possible.

Sudeepa Roy, Babak Salimi

The study of causality or causal inference - how much a given treatment causally affects a given outcome in a population - goes way beyond correlation or association analysis of variables, and is critical in making sound data driven decisions and policies in a multitude of applications. The gold standard in causal inference is performing "controlled experiments", which often is not possible due to logistical or ethical reasons. As an alternative, inferring causality on "observational data" based on the "Neyman-Rubin potential outcome model" has been extensively used in statistics, economics, and social sciences over several decades. In this paper, we present a formal framework for sound causal analysis on observational datasets that are given as multiple relations and where the population under study is obtained by joining these base relations. We study a crucial condition for inferring causality from observational data, called the "strong ignorability assumption" (the treatment and outcome variables should be independent in the joined relation given the observed covariates), using known conditional independences that hold in the base relations. We also discuss how the structure of the conditional independences in base relations given as graphical models help infer new conditional independences in the joined relation. The proposed framework combines concepts from databases, statistics, and graphical models, and aims to initiate new research directions spanning these fields to facilitate powerful data-driven decisions in today's big data world.

Tianyu Wang, Marco Morucci, M. Usaid Awan et al.

A classical problem in causal inference is that of matching, where treatment units need to be matched to control units based on covariate information. In this work, we propose a method that computes high quality almost-exact matches for high-dimensional categorical datasets. This method, called FLAME (Fast Large-scale Almost Matching Exactly), learns a distance metric for matching using a hold-out training data set. In order to perform matching efficiently for large datasets, FLAME leverages techniques that are natural for query processing in the area of database management, and two implementations of FLAME are provided: the first uses SQL queries and the second uses bit-vector techniques. The algorithm starts by constructing matches of the highest quality (exact matches on all covariates), and successively eliminates variables in order to match exactly on as many variables as possible, while still maintaining interpretable high-quality matches and balance between treatment and control groups. We leverage these high quality matches to estimate conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). Our experiments show that FLAME scales to huge datasets with millions of observations where existing state-of-the-art methods fail, and that it achieves significantly better performance than other matching methods.

Paul Beame, Jerry Li, Sudeepa Roy et al.

The best current methods for exactly computing the number of satisfying assignments, or the satisfying probability, of Boolean formulas can be seen, either directly or indirectly, as building 'decision-DNNF' (decision decomposable negation normal form) representations of the input Boolean formulas. Decision-DNNFs are a special case of 'd-DNNF's where 'd' stands for 'deterministic'. We show that any decision-DNNF can be converted into an equivalent 'FBDD' (free binary decision diagram) -- also known as a 'read-once branching program' (ROBP or 1-BP) -- with only a quasipolynomial increase in representation size in general, and with only a polynomial increase in size in the special case of monotone k-DNF formulas. Leveraging known exponential lower bounds for FBDDs, we then obtain similar exponential lower bounds for decision-DNNFs which provide lower bounds for the recent algorithms. We also separate the power of decision-DNNFs from d-DNNFs and a generalization of decision-DNNFs known as AND-FBDDs. Finally we show how these imply exponential lower bounds for natural problems associated with probabilistic databases.