Robert Kleinberg

Robert Kleinberg, Renato Paes Leme, Jon Schneider et al.

We consider the problem of evaluating forecasts of binary events whose predictions are consumed by rational agents who take an action in response to a prediction, but whose utility is unknown to the forecaster. We show that optimizing forecasts for a single scoring rule (e.g., the Brier score) cannot guarantee low regret for all possible agents. In contrast, forecasts that are well-calibrated guarantee that all agents incur sublinear regret. However, calibration is not a necessary criterion here (it is possible for miscalibrated forecasts to provide good regret guarantees for all possible agents), and calibrated forecasting procedures have provably worse convergence rates than forecasting procedures targeting a single scoring rule. Motivated by this, we present a new metric for evaluating forecasts that we call U-calibration, equal to the maximal regret of the sequence of forecasts when evaluated under any bounded scoring rule. We show that sublinear U-calibration error is a necessary and sufficient condition for all agents to achieve sublinear regret guarantees. We additionally demonstrate how to compute the U-calibration error efficiently and provide an online algorithm that achieves $O(\sqrt{T})$ U-calibration error (on par with optimal rates for optimizing for a single scoring rule, and bypassing lower bounds for the traditionally calibrated learning procedures). Finally, we discuss generalizations to the multiclass prediction setting.

Robert Kleinberg, Bo Waggoner, E. Glen Weyl

Investigating potential purchases is often a substantial investment under uncertainty. Standard market designs, such as simultaneous or English auctions, compound this with uncertainty about the price a bidder will have to pay in order to win. As a result they tend to confuse the process of search both by leading to wasteful information acquisition on goods that have already found a good purchaser and by discouraging needed investigations of objects, potentially eliminating all gains from trade. In contrast, we show that the Dutch auction preserves all of its properties from a standard setting without information costs because it guarantees, at the time of information acquisition, a price at which the good can be purchased. Calibrations to start-up acquisition and timber auctions suggest that in practice the social losses through poor search coordination in standard formats are an order of magnitude or two larger than the (negligible) inefficiencies arising from ex-ante bidder asymmetries.

Raunak Kumar, Robert Kleinberg

Bandits with knapsacks (BwK) is an influential model of sequential decision-making under uncertainty that incorporates resource consumption constraints. In each round, the decision-maker observes an outcome consisting of a reward and a vector of nonnegative resource consumptions, and the budget of each resource is decremented by its consumption. In this paper we introduce a natural generalization of the stochastic BwK problem that allows non-monotonic resource utilization. In each round, the decision-maker observes an outcome consisting of a reward and a vector of resource drifts that can be positive, negative or zero, and the budget of each resource is incremented by its drift. Our main result is a Markov decision process (MDP) policy that has constant regret against a linear programming (LP) relaxation when the decision-maker knows the true outcome distributions. We build upon this to develop a learning algorithm that has logarithmic regret against the same LP relaxation when the decision-maker does not know the true outcome distributions. We also present a reduction from BwK to our model that shows our regret bound matches existing results.

Raunak Kumar, Sarah Dean, Robert Kleinberg

Online convex optimization (OCO) is a widely used framework in online learning. In each round, the learner chooses a decision in a convex set and an adversary chooses a convex loss function, and then the learner suffers the loss associated with their current decision. However, in many applications the learner's loss depends not only on the current decision but on the entire history of decisions until that point. The OCO framework and its existing generalizations do not capture this, and they can only be applied to many settings of interest after a long series of approximation arguments. They also leave open the question of whether the dependence on memory is tight because there are no non-trivial lower bounds. In this work we introduce a generalization of the OCO framework, "Online Convex Optimization with Unbounded Memory", that captures long-term dependence on past decisions. We introduce the notion of $p$-effective memory capacity, $H_p$, that quantifies the maximum influence of past decisions on present losses. We prove an $O(\sqrt{H_p T})$ upper bound on the policy regret and a matching (worst-case) lower bound. As a special case, we prove the first non-trivial lower bound for OCO with finite memory \citep{anavaHM2015online}, which could be of independent interest, and also improve existing upper bounds. We demonstrate the broad applicability of our framework by using it to derive regret bounds, and to improve and simplify existing regret bound derivations, for a variety of online learning problems including online linear control and an online variant of performative prediction.

Princewill Okoroafor, Vaishnavi Gupta, Robert Kleinberg et al.

Estimating the empirical distribution of a scalar-valued data set is a basic and fundamental task. In this paper, we tackle the problem of estimating an empirical distribution in a setting with two challenging features. First, the algorithm does not directly observe the data; instead, it only asks a limited number of threshold queries about each sample. Second, the data are not assumed to be independent and identically distributed; instead, we allow for an arbitrary process generating the samples, including an adaptive adversary. These considerations are relevant, for example, when modeling a seller experimenting with posted prices to estimate the distribution of consumers' willingness to pay for a product: offering a price and observing a consumer's purchase decision is equivalent to asking a single threshold query about their value, and the distribution of consumers' values may be non-stationary over time, as early adopters may differ markedly from late adopters. Our main result quantifies, to within a constant factor, the sample complexity of estimating the empirical CDF of a sequence of elements of $[n]$, up to $\varepsilon$ additive error, using one threshold query per sample. The complexity depends only logarithmically on $n$, and our result can be interpreted as extending the existing logarithmic-complexity results for noisy binary search to the more challenging setting where noise is non-stochastic. Along the way to designing our algorithm, we consider a more general model in which the algorithm is allowed to make a limited number of simultaneous threshold queries on each sample. We solve this problem using Blackwell's Approachability Theorem and the exponential weights method. As a side result of independent interest, we characterize the minimum number of simultaneous threshold queries required by deterministic CDF estimation algorithms.

Princewill Okoroafor, Robert Kleinberg, Wen Sun

Predictive models in ML need to be trustworthy and reliable, which often at the very least means outputting calibrated probabilities. This can be particularly difficult to guarantee in the online prediction setting when the outcome sequence can be generated adversarially. In this paper we introduce a technique using Blackwell's approachability theorem for taking an online predictive model which might not be calibrated and transforming its predictions to calibrated predictions without much increase to the loss of the original model. Our proposed algorithm achieves calibration and accuracy at a faster rate than existing techniques arXiv:1607.03594 and is the first algorithm to offer a flexible tradeoff between calibration error and accuracy in the online setting. We demonstrate this by characterizing the space of jointly achievable calibration and regret using our technique.

Robert Kleinberg, Erald Sinanaj, Éva Tardos

Several recent works investigate the effects of monoculture, the ever increasing phenomenon of (possibly) self-interested actors in a society relying on one common source of advice for decision making, with an archetypal driving example being the growing adoption and predictive power of machine learning models in matching markets, e.g. in hiring. Kleinberg and Raghavan (PNAS, 2021) introduced a model that captures the effects of monoculture in a one-sided matching market with advice, demonstrating that a higher accuracy common signal (such as an algorithmic vendor) might incentivize society as a whole to rationally adopt it, but as a collective it would be better off if each instead adopted less accurate, but private advice. We generalize their model and address the open question of their work in quantifying the social welfare loss. We find that monoculture and more generally decentralized optimization is close to optimal: we show a tight constant bound of 2 on the price of anarchy (and more general notions) for the induced game.

Maithra Raghu, Alex Irpan, Jacob Andreas et al.

Deep reinforcement learning has achieved many recent successes, but our understanding of its strengths and limitations is hampered by the lack of rich environments in which we can fully characterize optimal behavior, and correspondingly diagnose individual actions against such a characterization. Here we consider a family of combinatorial games, arising from work of Erdos, Selfridge, and Spencer, and we propose their use as environments for evaluating and comparing different approaches to reinforcement learning. These games have a number of appealing features: they are challenging for current learning approaches, but they form (i) a low-dimensional, simply parametrized environment where (ii) there is a linear closed form solution for optimal behavior from any state, and (iii) the difficulty of the game can be tuned by changing environment parameters in an interpretable way. We use these Erdos-Selfridge-Spencer games not only to compare different algorithms, but test for generalization, make comparisons to supervised learning, analyse multiagent play, and even develop a self play algorithm. Code can be found at: https://github.com/rubai5/ESS_Game

Robert Kleinberg, Ahan Mishra

In the pinwheel problem, one is given an $m$-tuple of positive integers $(a_1, \ldots, a_m)$ and asked whether the integers can be partitioned into $m$ color classes $C_1,\ldots,C_m$ such that every interval of length $a_i$ has non-empty intersection with $C_i$, for $i = 1, 2, \ldots, m$. It was a long-standing open question whether the pinwheel problem is NP-hard. We affirm a prediction of Holte et al. (1989) by demonstrating, for the first time, NP-hardness of the pinwheel problem. This enables us to prove NP-hardness for a host of other problems considered in the literature: pinwheel covering, bamboo garden trimming, windows scheduling, recurrent scheduling, and the constant gap problem. On the positive side, we develop a PTAS for an approximate version of the pinwheel problem. Previously, the best approximation factor known to be achievable in polynomial time was $\frac{9}{7}$.

Siddhartha Banerjee, Ramiro N. Deo-Campo Vuong, Robert Kleinberg

Allocation of dynamically-arriving (i.e., online) divisible resources among a set of offline agents is a fundamental problem, with applications to online marketplaces, scheduling, portfolio selection, signal processing, and many other areas. The water-filling algorithm, which allocates an incoming resource to maximize the minimum load of compatible agents, is ubiquitous in many of these applications whenever the underlying objectives prefer more balanced solutions; however, the analysis and guarantees differ across settings. We provide a justification for the widespread use of water-filling by showing that it is a universally minimax optimal policy in a strong sense. Formally, our main result implies that water-filling is minimax optimal for a large class of objectives -- including both Schur-concave maximization and Schur-convex minimization -- under $α$-regret and competitive ratio measures. This optimality holds for every fixed tuple of agents and resource counts. Remarkably, water-filling achieves these guarantees as a myopic policy, remaining entirely agnostic to the objective function, agent count, and resource availability. Our techniques notably depart from the popular primal-dual analysis of online algorithms, and instead develop a novel way to apply the theory of majorization in online settings to achieve universality guarantees.

Princewill Okoroafor, Robert Kleinberg, Michael P. Kim

Omnipredictors are simple prediction functions that encode loss-minimizing predictions with respect to a hypothesis class $\mathcal{H}$, simultaneously for every loss function within a class of losses $\mathcal{L}$. In this work, we give near-optimal learning algorithms for omniprediction, in both the online and offline settings. To begin, we give an oracle-efficient online learning algorithm that acheives $(\mathcal{L},\mathcal{H})$-omniprediction with $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T \log |\mathcal{H}|})$ regret for any class of Lipschitz loss functions $\mathcal{L} \subseteq \mathcal{L}_\mathrm{Lip}$. Quite surprisingly, this regret bound matches the optimal regret for \emph{minimization of a single loss function} (up to a $\sqrt{\log(T)}$ factor). Given this online algorithm, we develop an online-to-offline conversion that achieves near-optimal complexity across a number of measures. In particular, for all bounded loss functions within the class of Bounded Variation losses $\mathcal{L}_\mathrm{BV}$ (which include all convex, all Lipschitz, and all proper losses) and any (possibly-infinite) $\mathcal{H}$, we obtain an offline learning algorithm that, leveraging an (offline) ERM oracle and $m$ samples from $\mathcal{D}$, returns an efficient $(\mathcal{L}_{\mathrm{BV}},\mathcal{H},\varepsilon(m))$-omnipredictor for $\varepsilon(m)$ scaling near-linearly in the Rademacher complexity of $\mathrm{Th} \circ \mathcal{H}$.

Maxwell Fishelson, Robert Kleinberg, Princewill Okoroafor et al.

We study the problem of minimizing swap regret in structured normal-form games. Players have a very large (potentially infinite) number of pure actions, but each action has an embedding into $d$-dimensional space and payoffs are given by bilinear functions of these embeddings. We provide an efficient learning algorithm for this setting that incurs at most $\tilde{O}(T^{(d+1)/(d+3)})$ swap regret after $T$ rounds. To achieve this, we introduce a new online learning problem we call \emph{full swap regret minimization}. In this problem, a learner repeatedly takes a (randomized) action in a bounded convex $d$-dimensional action set $\mathcal{K}$ and then receives a loss from the adversary, with the goal of minimizing their regret with respect to the \emph{worst-case} swap function mapping $\mathcal{K}$ to $\mathcal{K}$. For varied assumptions about the convexity and smoothness of the loss functions, we design algorithms with full swap regret bounds ranging from $O(T^{d/(d+2)})$ to $O(T^{(d+1)/(d+2)})$. Finally, we apply these tools to the problem of online forecasting to minimize calibration error, showing that several notions of calibration can be viewed as specific instances of full swap regret. In particular, we design efficient algorithms for online forecasting that guarantee at most $O(T^{1/3})$ $\ell_2$-calibration error and $O(\max(\sqrt{εT}, T^{1/3}))$ \emph{discretized-calibration} error (when the forecaster is restricted to predicting multiples of $ε$).

Giannis Fikioris, Robert Kleinberg, Yoav Kolumbus et al.

In many repeated auction settings, participants care not only about how frequently they win but also how their winnings are distributed over time. This problem arises in various practical domains where avoiding congested demand is crucial, such as online retail sales and compute services, as well as in advertising campaigns that require sustained visibility over time. We introduce a simple model of this phenomenon, modeling it as a budgeted auction where the value of a win is a concave function of the time since the last win. This implies that for a given number of wins, even spacing over time is optimal. We also extend our model and results to the case when not all wins result in "conversions" (realization of actual gains), and the probability of conversion depends on a context. The goal is to maximize and evenly space conversions rather than just wins. We study the optimal policies for this setting in second-price auctions and offer learning algorithms for the bidders that achieve low regret against the optimal bidding policy in a Bayesian online setting. Our main result is a computationally efficient online learning algorithm that achieves $\tilde O(\sqrt T)$ regret. We achieve this by showing that an infinite-horizon Markov decision process (MDP) with the budget constraint in expectation is essentially equivalent to our problem, even when limiting that MDP to a very small number of states. The algorithm achieves low regret by learning a bidding policy that chooses bids as a function of the context and the system's state, which will be the time elapsed since the last win (or conversion). We show that state-independent strategies incur linear regret even without uncertainty of conversions. We complement this by showing that there are state-independent strategies that, while still having linear regret, achieve a $(1-\frac 1 e)$ approximation to the optimal reward.

Princewill Okoroafor, Robert Kleinberg, Michael P. Kim

The Hybrid Online Learning Problem, where features are drawn i.i.d. from an unknown distribution but labels are generated adversarially, is a well-motivated setting positioned between statistical and fully-adversarial online learning. Prior work has presented a dichotomy: algorithms that are statistically-optimal, but computationally intractable (Wu et al., 2023), and algorithms that are computationally-efficient (given an ERM oracle), but statistically-suboptimal (Wu et al., 2024). This paper takes a significant step towards achieving statistical optimality and computational efficiency simultaneously in the Hybrid Learning setting. To do so, we consider a structured setting, where the Adversary is constrained to pick labels from an expressive, but fixed, class of functions $R$. Our main result is a new learning algorithm, which runs efficiently given an ERM oracle and obtains regret scaling with the Rademacher complexity of a class derived from the Learner's hypothesis class $H$ and the Adversary's label class $R$. As a key corollary, we give an oracle-efficient algorithm for computing equilibria in stochastic zero-sum games when action sets may be high-dimensional but the payoff function exhibits a type of low-dimensional structure. Technically, we develop a number of tools for the design and analysis of our learning algorithm, including a novel Frank-Wolfe reduction with "truncated entropy regularizer" and a new tail bound for sums of "hybrid" martingale difference sequences.

Arjun Devraj, Eric Ding, Abhishek Vijaya Kumar et al.

Distributed machine learning workloads use data and tensor parallelism for training and inference, both of which rely on the AllReduce collective to synchronize gradients or activations. However, AllReduce algorithms are delayed by the slowest GPU to reach the synchronization barrier before the collective (i.e., the straggler). To address this challenge, we propose StragglAR: a parallel algorithm for AllReduce that accelerates distributed training and inference by exploiting natural variation in GPU execution times. StragglAR implements a ReduceScatter among the remaining GPUs during the straggler-induced delay, and then executes a novel collective algorithm to complete the AllReduce once the final GPU reaches the synchronization barrier. StragglAR achieves a 2x theoretical speedup over popular bandwidth-efficient algorithms for large GPU clusters, surpassing the lower bound for bandwidth-optimal synchronous AllReduce by leveraging the asymmetry in when GPUs reach the synchronization barrier. On an 8-GPU server, StragglAR provides a 25% speedup over state-of-the-art AllReduce algorithms.

Yuval Dagan, Constantinos Daskalakis, Maxwell Fishelson et al.

A set of probabilistic forecasts is calibrated if each prediction of the forecaster closely approximates the empirical distribution of outcomes on the subset of timesteps where that prediction was made. We study the fundamental problem of online calibrated forecasting of binary sequences, which was initially studied by Foster & Vohra (1998). They derived an algorithm with $O(T^{2/3})$ calibration error after $T$ time steps, and showed a lower bound of $Ω(T^{1/2})$. These bounds remained stagnant for two decades, until Qiao & Valiant (2021) improved the lower bound to $Ω(T^{0.528})$ by introducing a combinatorial game called sign preservation and showing that lower bounds for this game imply lower bounds for calibration. In this paper, we give the first improvement to the $O(T^{2/3})$ upper bound on calibration error of Foster & Vohra. We do this by introducing a variant of Qiao & Valiant's game that we call sign preservation with reuse (SPR). We prove that the relationship between SPR and calibrated forecasting is bidirectional: not only do lower bounds for SPR translate into lower bounds for calibration, but algorithms for SPR also translate into new algorithms for calibrated forecasting. We then give an improved \emph{upper bound} for the SPR game, which implies, via our equivalence, a forecasting algorithm with calibration error $O(T^{2/3 - \varepsilon})$ for some $\varepsilon > 0$, improving Foster & Vohra's upper bound for the first time. Using similar ideas, we then prove a slightly stronger lower bound than that of Qiao & Valiant, namely $Ω(T^{0.54389})$. Our lower bound is obtained by an oblivious adversary, marking the first $ω(T^{1/2})$ calibration lower bound for oblivious adversaries.

Robert Kleinberg, Kevin Leyton-Brown, Brendan Lucier et al.

Algorithm configuration methods optimize the performance of a parameterized heuristic algorithm on a given distribution of problem instances. Recent work introduced an algorithm configuration procedure ("Structured Procrastination") that provably achieves near optimal performance with high probability and with nearly minimal runtime in the worst case. It also offers an $\textit{anytime}$ property: it keeps tightening its optimality guarantees the longer it is run. Unfortunately, Structured Procrastination is not $\textit{adaptive}$ to characteristics of the parameterized algorithm: it treats every input like the worst case. Follow-up work ("LeapsAndBounds") achieves adaptivity but trades away the anytime property. This paper introduces a new algorithm, "Structured Procrastination with Confidence", that preserves the near-optimality and anytime properties of Structured Procrastination while adding adaptivity. In particular, the new algorithm will perform dramatically faster in settings where many algorithm configurations perform poorly. We show empirically both that such settings arise frequently in practice and that the anytime property is useful for finding good configurations quickly.

Maithra Raghu, Katy Blumer, Rory Sayres et al.

The issue of disagreements amongst human experts is a ubiquitous one in both machine learning and medicine. In medicine, this often corresponds to doctor disagreements on a patient diagnosis. In this work, we show that machine learning models can be trained to give uncertainty scores to data instances that might result in high expert disagreements. In particular, they can identify patient cases that would benefit most from a medical second opinion. Our central methodological finding is that Direct Uncertainty Prediction (DUP), training a model to predict an uncertainty score directly from the raw patient features, works better than Uncertainty Via Classification, the two-step process of training a classifier and postprocessing the output distribution to give an uncertainty score. We show this both with a theoretical result, and on extensive evaluations on a large scale medical imaging application.

Robert Kleinberg, Yuanzhi Li, Yang Yuan

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is widely used in machine learning. Although being commonly viewed as a fast but not accurate version of gradient descent (GD), it always finds better solutions than GD for modern neural networks. In order to understand this phenomenon, we take an alternative view that SGD is working on the convolved (thus smoothed) version of the loss function. We show that, even if the function $f$ has many bad local minima or saddle points, as long as for every point $x$, the weighted average of the gradients of its neighborhoods is one point convex with respect to the desired solution $x^*$, SGD will get close to, and then stay around $x^*$ with constant probability. More specifically, SGD will not get stuck at "sharp" local minima with small diameters, as long as the neighborhoods of these regions contain enough gradient information. The neighborhood size is controlled by step size and gradient noise. Our result identifies a set of functions that SGD provably works, which is much larger than the set of convex functions. Empirically, we observe that the loss surface of neural networks enjoys nice one point convexity properties locally, therefore our theorem helps explain why SGD works so well for neural networks.

Arpita Ghosh, Robert Kleinberg

The correlations and network structure amongst individuals in datasets today---whether explicitly articulated, or deduced from biological or behavioral connections---pose new issues around privacy guarantees, because of inferences that can be made about one individual from another's data. This motivates quantifying privacy in networked contexts in terms of "inferential privacy"---which measures the change in beliefs about an individual's data from the result of a computation---as originally proposed by Dalenius in the 1970's. Inferential privacy is implied by differential privacy when data are independent, but can be much worse when data are correlated; indeed, simple examples, as well as a general impossibility theorem of Dwork and Naor, preclude the possibility of achieving non-trivial inferential privacy when the adversary can have arbitrary auxiliary information. In this paper, we ask how differential privacy guarantees translate to guarantees on inferential privacy in networked contexts: specifically, under what limitations on the adversary's information about correlations, modeled as a prior distribution over datasets, can we deduce an inferential guarantee from a differential one? We prove two main results. The first result pertains to distributions that satisfy a natural positive-affiliation condition, and gives an upper bound on the inferential privacy guarantee for any differentially private mechanism. This upper bound is matched by a simple mechanism that adds Laplace noise to the sum of the data. The second result pertains to distributions that have weak correlations, defined in terms of a suitable "influence matrix". The result provides an upper bound for inferential privacy in terms of the differential privacy parameter and the spectral norm of this matrix.

Robert Kleinberg, Aleksandrs Slivkins, Eli Upfal

In a multi-armed bandit problem, an online algorithm chooses from a set of strategies in a sequence of trials so as to maximize the total payoff of the chosen strategies. While the performance of bandit algorithms with a small finite strategy set is quite well understood, bandit problems with large strategy sets are still a topic of very active investigation, motivated by practical applications such as online auctions and web advertisement. The goal of such research is to identify broad and natural classes of strategy sets and payoff functions which enable the design of efficient solutions. In this work we study a very general setting for the multi-armed bandit problem in which the strategies form a metric space, and the payoff function satisfies a Lipschitz condition with respect to the metric. We refer to this problem as the "Lipschitz MAB problem". We present a solution for the multi-armed bandit problem in this setting. That is, for every metric space we define an isometry invariant which bounds from below the performance of Lipschitz MAB algorithms for this metric space, and we present an algorithm which comes arbitrarily close to meeting this bound. Furthermore, our technique gives even better results for benign payoff functions. We also address the full-feedback ("best expert") version of the problem, where after every round the payoffs from all arms are revealed.

Ashwinkumar Badanidiyuru, Robert Kleinberg, Aleksandrs Slivkins

Multi-armed bandit problems are the predominant theoretical model of exploration-exploitation tradeoffs in learning, and they have countless applications ranging from medical trials, to communication networks, to Web search and advertising. In many of these application domains the learner may be constrained by one or more supply (or budget) limits, in addition to the customary limitation on the time horizon. The literature lacks a general model encompassing these sorts of problems. We introduce such a model, called "bandits with knapsacks", that combines aspects of stochastic integer programming with online learning. A distinctive feature of our problem, in comparison to the existing regret-minimization literature, is that the optimal policy for a given latent distribution may significantly outperform the policy that plays the optimal fixed arm. Consequently, achieving sublinear regret in the bandits-with-knapsacks problem is significantly more challenging than in conventional bandit problems. We present two algorithms whose reward is close to the information-theoretic optimum: one is based on a novel "balanced exploration" paradigm, while the other is a primal-dual algorithm that uses multiplicative updates. Further, we prove that the regret achieved by both algorithms is optimal up to polylogarithmic factors. We illustrate the generality of the problem by presenting applications in a number of different domains including electronic commerce, routing, and scheduling. As one example of a concrete application, we consider the problem of dynamic posted pricing with limited supply and obtain the first algorithm whose regret, with respect to the optimal dynamic policy, is sublinear in the supply.

James Demmel, Ioana Dumitriu, Olga Holtz et al.

We perform forward error analysis for a large class of recursive matrix multiplication algorithms in the spirit of [D. Bini and G. Lotti, Stability of fast algorithms for matrix multiplication, Numer. Math. 36 (1980), 63--72]. As a consequence of our analysis, we show that the exponent of matrix multiplication (the optimal running time) can be achieved by numerically stable algorithms. We also show that new group-theoretic algorithms proposed in [H. Cohn, and C. Umans, A group-theoretic approach to fast matrix multiplication, FOCS 2003, 438--449] and [H. Cohn, R. Kleinberg, B. Szegedy and C. Umans, Group-theoretic algorithms for matrix multiplication, FOCS 2005, 379--388] are all included in the class of algorithms to which our analysis applies, and are therefore numerically stable. We perform detailed error analysis for three specific fast group-theoretic algorithms.