Kateryna Melnyk

Kateryna Melnyk, Lee Friedman, Oleg Komogortsev

Gaze prediction is essential for addressing motion-to-photon latency and ensuring seamless foveated rendering in Virtual Reality. The reliability of gaze forecasting is highly sensitive to individual differences and the eye movements being predicted. We evaluate recurrent, transformer-based, and classification-guided architectures to assess their generalization capabilities across oculomotor events. Using the GazeBase VR and Meta Quest Pro datasets, we analyzed the relationship between the median (P50) and high-percentile (P95) error profiles across subjects. The analysis reveals significant performance variability, showing that subjects with low P50 errors do not always exhibit the lowest extreme-case errors. Consequently, low median errors do not guarantee the robustness of the utilized solution. We discuss inference performance and address the class imbalance problem in short-term gaze prediction. These results identify a gap in standardized evaluation methods, necessitating a shift toward P95-focused, subject-specific metrics to develop reliable and perceptually stable gaze-contingent systems.

Kateryna Melnyk, Lee Friedman, Dmytro Katrychuk et al.

Eye movement prediction is a promising area of research with the potential to improve performance and the user experience of systems based on eye-tracking technology. In this study, we analyze individual differences in gaze prediction performance. We use three fundamentally different models within the analysis: the lightweight Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM), the transformer-based network for multivariate time series representation learning (TST), and the Oculomotor Plant Mathematical Model wrapped in the Kalman Filter framework (OPKF). Each solution was assessed on different eye-movement types. We show important subject-to-subject variation for all models and eye-movement types. We found that fixation noise is associated with poorer gaze prediction in fixation. For saccades, higher velocities are associated with poorer gaze prediction performance. We think these individual differences are important and propose that future research should report statistics related to inter-subject variation. We also propose that future models should be designed to reduce subject-to-subject variation.