Keisuke Fujii

Robin Karlsson, Alexander Carballo, Keisuke Fujii et al.

Cognitive scientists believe adaptable intelligent agents like humans perform reasoning through learned causal mental simulations of agents and environments. The problem of learning such simulations is called predictive world modeling. Recently, reinforcement learning (RL) agents leveraging world models have achieved SOTA performance in game environments. However, understanding how to apply the world modeling approach in complex real-world environments relevant to mobile robots remains an open question. In this paper, we present a framework for learning a probabilistic predictive world model for real-world road environments. We implement the model using a hierarchical VAE (HVAE) capable of predicting a diverse set of fully observed plausible worlds from accumulated sensor observations. While prior HVAE methods require complete states as ground truth for learning, we present a novel sequential training method to allow HVAEs to learn to predict complete states from partially observed states only. We experimentally demonstrate accurate spatial structure prediction of deterministic regions achieving 96.21 IoU, and close the gap to perfect prediction by 62% for stochastic regions using the best prediction. By extending HVAEs to cases where complete ground truth states do not exist, we facilitate continual learning of spatial prediction as a step towards realizing explainable and comprehensive predictive world models for real-world mobile robotics applications. Code is available at https://github.com/robin-karlsson0/predictive-world-models.

Robin Karlsson, Alexander Carballo, Francisco Lepe-Salazar et al.

Human beings cooperatively navigate rule-constrained environments by adhering to mutually known navigational patterns, which may be represented as directional pathways or road lanes. Inferring these navigational patterns from incompletely observed environments is required for intelligent mobile robots operating in unmapped locations. However, algorithmically defining these navigational patterns is nontrivial. This paper presents the first self-supervised learning (SSL) method for learning to infer navigational patterns in real-world environments from partial observations only. We explain how geometric data augmentation, predictive world modeling, and an information-theoretic regularizer enables our model to predict an unbiased local directional soft lane probability (DSLP) field in the limit of infinite data. We demonstrate how to infer global navigational patterns by fitting a maximum likelihood graph to the DSLP field. Experiments show that our SSL model outperforms two SOTA supervised lane graph prediction models on the nuScenes dataset. We propose our SSL method as a scalable and interpretable continual learning paradigm for navigation by perception. Code is available at https://github.com/robin-karlsson0/dslp.

Tomohiro Suzuki, Kazuya Takeda, Keisuke Fujii

Automatic fault detection is a major challenge in many sports. In race walking, referees visually judge faults according to the rules. Hence, ensuring objectivity and fairness while judging is important. To address this issue, some studies have attempted to use sensors and machine learning to automatically detect faults. However, there are problems associated with sensor attachments and equipment such as a high-speed camera, which conflict with the visual judgement of referees, and the interpretability of the fault detection models. In this study, we proposed a fault detection system for non-contact measurement. We used pose estimation and machine learning models trained based on the judgements of multiple qualified referees to realize fair fault judgement. We verified them using smartphone videos of normal race walking and walking with intentional faults in several athletes including the medalist of the Tokyo Olympics. The validation results show that the proposed system detected faults with an average accuracy of over 90%. We also revealed that the machine learning model detects faults according to the rules of race walking. In addition, the intentional faulty walking movement of the medalist was different from that of university walkers. This finding informs realization of a more general fault detection model. The code and data are available at https://github.com/SZucchini/racewalk-aijudge.

Rikuhei Umemoto, Kazushi Tsutsui, Keisuke Fujii

Analyzing defenses in team sports is generally challenging because of the limited event data. Researchers have previously proposed methods to evaluate football team defense by predicting the events of ball gain and being attacked using locations of all players and the ball. However, they did not consider the importance of the events, assumed the perfect observation of all 22 players, and did not fully investigated the influence of the diversity (e.g., nationality and sex). Here, we propose a generalized valuation method of defensive teams by score-scaling the predicted probabilities of the events. Using the open-source location data of all players in broadcast video frames in football games of men's Euro 2020 and women's Euro 2022, we investigated the effect of the number of players on the prediction and validated our approach by analyzing the games. Results show that for the predictions of being attacked, scoring, and conceding, all players' information was not necessary, while that of ball gain required information on three to four offensive and defensive players. With game analyses we explained the excellence in defense of finalist teams in Euro 2020. Our approach might be applicable to location data from broadcast video frames in football games.

Masakiyo Teranishi, Kazushi Tsutsui, Kazuya Takeda et al.

Evaluating the individual movements for teammates in soccer players is crucial for assessing teamwork, scouting, and fan engagement. It has been said that players in a 90-min game do not have the ball for about 87 minutes on average. However, it has remained difficult to evaluate an attacking player without receiving the ball, and to reveal how movement contributes to the creation of scoring opportunities for teammates. In this paper, we evaluate players who create off-ball scoring opportunities by comparing actual movements with the reference movements generated via trajectory prediction. First, we predict the trajectories of players using a graph variational recurrent neural network that can accurately model the relationship between players and predict the long-term trajectory. Next, based on the difference in the modified off-ball evaluation index between the actual and the predicted trajectory as a reference, we evaluate how the actual movement contributes to scoring opportunity compared to the predicted movement. For verification, we examined the relationship with the annual salary, the goals, and the rating in the game by experts for all games of a team in a professional soccer league in a year. The results show that the annual salary and the proposed indicator correlated significantly, which could not be explained by the existing indicators and goals. Our results suggest the effectiveness of the proposed method as an indicator for a player without the ball to create a scoring chance for teammates.

Keisuke Fujii, Koh Takeuchi, Atsushi Kuribayashi et al.

Evaluation of intervention in a multiagent system, e.g., when humans should intervene in autonomous driving systems and when a player should pass to teammates for a good shot, is challenging in various engineering and scientific fields. Estimating the individual treatment effect (ITE) using counterfactual long-term prediction is practical to evaluate such interventions. However, most of the conventional frameworks did not consider the time-varying complex structure of multiagent relationships and covariate counterfactual prediction. This may lead to erroneous assessments of ITE and difficulty in interpretation. Here we propose an interpretable, counterfactual recurrent network in multiagent systems to estimate the effect of the intervention. Our model leverages graph variational recurrent neural networks and theory-based computation with domain knowledge for the ITE estimation framework based on long-term prediction of multiagent covariates and outcomes, which can confirm the circumstances under which the intervention is effective. On simulated models of an automated vehicle and biological agents with time-varying confounders, we show that our methods achieved lower estimation errors in counterfactual covariates and the most effective treatment timing than the baselines. Furthermore, using real basketball data, our methods performed realistic counterfactual predictions and evaluated the counterfactual passes in shot scenarios.

Calvin C. K. Yeung, Tony Sit, Keisuke Fujii

With recently available football match event data that record the details of football matches, analysts and researchers have a great opportunity to develop new performance metrics, gain insight, and evaluate key performance. However, most sports sequential events modeling methods and performance metrics approaches could be incomprehensive in dealing with such large-scale spatiotemporal data (in particular, temporal process), thereby necessitating a more comprehensive spatiotemporal model and a holistic performance metric. To this end, we proposed the Transformer-Based Neural Marked Spatio Temporal Point Process (NMSTPP) model for football event data based on the neural temporal point processes (NTPP) framework. In the experiments, our model outperformed the prediction performance of the baseline models. Furthermore, we proposed the holistic possession utilization score (HPUS) metric for a more comprehensive football possession analysis. For verification, we examined the relationship with football teams' final ranking, average goal score, and average xG over a season. It was observed that the average HPUS showed significant correlations regardless of not using goal and details of shot information. Furthermore, we show HPUS examples in analyzing possessions, matches, and between matches.

Calvin C. K. Yeung, Keisuke Fujii

Complex interactions between two opposing agents frequently occur in domains of machine learning, game theory, and other application domains. Quantitatively analyzing the strategies involved can provide an objective basis for decision-making. One such critical scenario is shot-taking in football, where decisions, such as whether the attacker should shoot or pass the ball and whether the defender should attempt to block the shot, play a crucial role in the outcome of the game. However, there are currently no effective data-driven and/or theory-based approaches to analyzing such situations. To address this issue, we proposed a novel framework to analyze such scenarios based on game theory, where we estimate the expected payoff with machine learning (ML) models, and additional features for ML models were extracted with a theory-based shot block model. Conventionally, successes or failures (1 or 0) are used as payoffs, while a success shot (goal) is extremely rare in football. Therefore, we proposed the Expected Probability of Shot On Target (xSOT) metric to evaluate players' actions even if the shot results in no goal; this allows for effective differentiation and comparison between different shots and even enables counterfactual shot situation analysis. In our experiments, we have validated the framework by comparing it with baseline and ablated models. Furthermore, we have observed a high correlation between the xSOT and existing metrics. This alignment of information suggests that xSOT provides valuable insights. Lastly, as an illustration, we studied optimal strategies in the World Cup 2022 and analyzed a shot situation in EURO 2020.

Kohei Morimoto, Yusuke Takase, Kosuke Mitarai et al.

In this paper, we introduce the quantum adaptive distribution search (QuADS), a quantum continuous optimization algorithm that integrates Grover adaptive search (GAS) with the covariance matrix adaptation - evolution strategy (CMA-ES), a classical technique for continuous optimization. QuADS utilizes the quantum-based search capabilities of GAS and enhances them with the principles of CMA-ES for more efficient optimization. It employs a multivariate normal distribution for the initial state of the quantum search and repeatedly updates it throughout the optimization process. Our numerical experiments show that QuADS outperforms both GAS and CMA-ES. This is achieved through adaptive refinement of the initial state distribution rather than consistently using a uniform state, resulting in fewer oracle calls. This study presents an important step toward exploiting the potential of quantum computing for continuous optimization.

Hiroshi Nakahara, Kazuya Takeda, Keisuke Fujii

In baseball, every play on the field is quantitatively evaluated and has an effect on individual and team strategies. The weighted on base average (wOBA) is well known as a measure of an batter's hitting contribution. However, this measure ignores the game situation, such as the runners on base, which coaches and batters are known to consider when employing multiple hitting strategies, yet, the effectiveness of these strategies is unknown. This is probably because (1) we cannot obtain the batter's strategy and (2) it is difficult to estimate the effect of the strategies. Here, we propose a new method for estimating the effect using counterfactual batting simulation. To this end, we propose a deep learning model that transforms batting ability when batting strategy is changed. This method can estimate the effects of various strategies, which has been traditionally difficult with actual game data. We found that, when the switching cost of batting strategies can be ignored, the use of different strategies increased runs. When the switching cost is considered, the conditions for increasing runs were limited. Our validation results suggest that our simulation could clarify the effect of using multiple batting strategies.

Tomohiro Suzuki, Kazushi Tsutsui, Kazuya Takeda et al.

In many sports, player re-identification is crucial for automatic video processing and analysis. However, most of the current studies on player re-identification in multi- or single-view sports videos focus on re-identification in the closed-world setting using labeled image dataset, and player re-identification in the open-world setting for automatic video analysis is not well developed. In this paper, we propose a runner re-identification system that directly processes single-view video to address the open-world setting. In the open-world setting, we cannot use labeled dataset and have to process video directly. The proposed system automatically processes raw video as input to identify runners, and it can identify runners even when they are framed out multiple times. For the automatic processing, we first detect the runners in the video using the pre-trained YOLOv8 and the fine-tuned EfficientNet. We then track the runners using ByteTrack and detect their shoes with the fine-tuned YOLOv8. Finally, we extract the image features of the runners using an unsupervised method with the gated recurrent unit autoencoder and global and local features mixing. To improve the accuracy of runner re-identification, we use shoe images as local image features and dynamic features of running sequence images. We evaluated the system on a running practice video dataset and showed that the proposed method identified runners with higher accuracy than some state-of-the-art models in unsupervised re-identification. We also showed that our proposed local image feature and running dynamic feature were effective for runner re-identification. Our runner re-identification system can be useful for the automatic analysis of running videos.

Calvin Yeung, Jeff Yu, King Chau Cheung et al.

Automated grading has become an essential tool in education technology due to its ability to efficiently assess large volumes of student work, provide consistent and unbiased evaluations, and deliver immediate feedback to enhance learning. However, current systems face significant limitations, including the need for large datasets in few-shot learning methods, a lack of personalized and actionable feedback, and an overemphasis on benchmark performance rather than student experience. To address these challenges, we propose a Zero-Shot Large Language Model (LLM)-Based Automated Assignment Grading (AAG) system. This framework leverages prompt engineering to evaluate both computational and explanatory student responses without requiring additional training or fine-tuning. The AAG system delivers tailored feedback that highlights individual strengths and areas for improvement, thereby enhancing student learning outcomes. Our study demonstrates the system's effectiveness through comprehensive evaluations, including survey responses from higher education students that indicate significant improvements in motivation, understanding, and preparedness compared to traditional grading methods. The results validate the AAG system's potential to transform educational assessment by prioritizing learning experiences and providing scalable, high-quality feedback.

Kenjiro Ide, Taiga Someya, Kohei Kawaguchi et al.

Understanding football tactics is crucial for managers and analysts. Previous research has proposed models based on spatial and kinematic equations, but these are computationally expensive. Also, Reinforcement learning approaches use player positions and velocities but lack interpretability and require large datasets. Rule-based models align with expert knowledge but have not fully considered all players' states. This study explores whether low-dimensional, rule-based models using spatiotemporal data can effectively capture football tactics. Our approach defines interpretable state variables for both the ball-holder and potential pass receivers, based on criteria that explore options like passing. Through discussions with a manager, we identified key variables representing the game state. We then used StatsBomb event data and SkillCorner tracking data from the 2023$/$24 LaLiga season to train an XGBoost model to predict pass success. The analysis revealed that the distance between the player and the ball, as well as the player's space score, were key factors in determining successful passes. Our interpretable low-dimensional modeling facilitates tactical analysis through the use of intuitive variables and provides practical value as a tool to support decision-making in football.

Rikako Kono, Keisuke Fujii

In professional basketball, the accurate prediction of scoring opportunities based on strategic decision-making is crucial for spatial and player evaluations. However, traditional models often face challenges in accounting for the complexities of off-ball movements, which are essential for comprehensive performance evaluations. In this study, we propose two mathematical models to predict off-ball scoring opportunities in basketball, considering pass-to-score and dribble-to-score sequences: the Ball Movement for Off-ball Scoring (BMOS) and the Ball Intercept and Movement for Off-ball Scoring (BIMOS) models. The BMOS model adapts principles from the Off-Ball Scoring Opportunities (OBSO) model, originally designed for soccer, to basketball, whereas the BIMOS model also incorporates the likelihood of interception during ball movements. We evaluated these models using player tracking data from 630 NBA games in the 2015-2016 regular season, demonstrating that the BIMOS model outperforms the BMOS model in terms of team scoring prediction accuracy, while also highlighting its potential for further development. Overall, the BIMOS model provides valuable insights for tactical analysis and player evaluation in basketball.

Keisuke Fujii, Kazushi Tsutsui, Atom Scott et al.

Modeling of real-world biological multi-agents is a fundamental problem in various scientific and engineering fields. Reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful framework to generate flexible and diverse behaviors in cyberspace; however, when modeling real-world biological multi-agents, there is a domain gap between behaviors in the source (i.e., real-world data) and the target (i.e., cyberspace for RL), and the source environment parameters are usually unknown. In this paper, we propose a method for adaptive action supervision in RL from real-world demonstrations in multi-agent scenarios. We adopt an approach that combines RL and supervised learning by selecting actions of demonstrations in RL based on the minimum distance of dynamic time warping for utilizing the information of the unknown source dynamics. This approach can be easily applied to many existing neural network architectures and provide us with an RL model balanced between reproducibility as imitation and generalization ability to obtain rewards in cyberspace. In the experiments, using chase-and-escape and football tasks with the different dynamics between the unknown source and target environments, we show that our approach achieved a balance between the reproducibility and the generalization ability compared with the baselines. In particular, we used the tracking data of professional football players as expert demonstrations in football and show successful performances despite the larger gap between behaviors in the source and target environments than the chase-and-escape task.

Yoshiaki Kawase, Kosuke Mitarai, Keisuke Fujii

t-Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) is a non-parametric data visualization method in classical machine learning. It maps the data from the high-dimensional space into a low-dimensional space, especially a two-dimensional plane, while maintaining the relationship, or similarities, between the surrounding points. In t-SNE, the initial position of the low-dimensional data is randomly determined, and the visualization is achieved by moving the low-dimensional data to minimize a cost function. Its variant called parametric t-SNE uses neural networks for this mapping. In this paper, we propose to use quantum neural networks for parametric t-SNE to reflect the characteristics of high-dimensional quantum data on low-dimensional data. We use fidelity-based metrics instead of Euclidean distance in calculating high-dimensional data similarity. We visualize both classical (Iris dataset) and quantum (time-depending Hamiltonian dynamics) data for classification tasks. Since this method allows us to represent a quantum dataset in a higher dimensional Hilbert space by a quantum dataset in a lower dimension while keeping their similarity, the proposed method can also be used to compress quantum data for further quantum machine learning.

Robin Karlsson, Tomoki Hayashi, Keisuke Fujii et al.

Recent self-supervised models have demonstrated equal or better performance than supervised methods, opening for AI systems to learn visual representations from practically unlimited data. However, these methods are typically classification-based and thus ineffective for learning high-resolution feature maps that preserve precise spatial information. This work introduces superpixels to improve self-supervised learning of dense semantically rich visual concept embeddings. Decomposing images into a small set of visually coherent regions reduces the computational complexity by $\mathcal{O}(1000)$ while preserving detail. We experimentally show that contrasting over regions improves the effectiveness of contrastive learning methods, extends their applicability to high-resolution images, improves overclustering performance, superpixels are better than grids, and regional masking improves performance. The expressiveness of our dense embeddings is demonstrated by improving the SOTA unsupervised semantic segmentation benchmark on Cityscapes, and for convolutional models on COCO.

Atom Scott, Keisuke Fujii, Masaki Onishi

Recent advances in reinforcement learning (RL) have made it possible to develop sophisticated agents that excel in a wide range of applications. Simulations using such agents can provide valuable information in scenarios that are difficult to scientifically experiment in the real world. In this paper, we examine the play-style characteristics of football RL agents and uncover how strategies may develop during training. The learnt strategies are then compared with those of real football players. We explore what can be learnt from the use of simulated environments by using aggregated statistics and social network analysis (SNA). As a result, we found that (1) there are strong correlations between the competitiveness of an agent and various SNA metrics and (2) aspects of the RL agents play style become similar to real world footballers as the agent becomes more competitive. We discuss further advances that may be necessary to improve our understanding necessary to fully utilise RL for the analysis of football.

Norihito Shirai, Kenji Kubo, Kosuke Mitarai et al.

Quantum kernel method is one of the key approaches to quantum machine learning, which has the advantages that it does not require optimization and has theoretical simplicity. By virtue of these properties, several experimental demonstrations and discussions of the potential advantages have been developed so far. However, as is the case in classical machine learning, not all quantum machine learning models could be regarded as kernel methods. In this work, we explore a quantum machine learning model with a deep parameterized quantum circuit and aim to go beyond the conventional quantum kernel method. In this case, the representation power and performance are expected to be enhanced, while the training process might be a bottleneck because of the barren plateaus issue. However, we find that parameters of a deep enough quantum circuit do not move much from its initial values during training, allowing first-order expansion with respect to the parameters. This behavior is similar to the neural tangent kernel in the classical literatures, and such a deep variational quantum machine learning can be described by another emergent kernel, quantum tangent kernel. Numerical simulations show that the proposed quantum tangent kernel outperforms the conventional quantum kernel method for an ansatz-generated dataset. This work provides a new direction beyond the conventional quantum kernel method and explores potential power of quantum machine learning with deep parameterized quantum circuits.

Naoya Takeishi, Keisuke Fujii, Koh Takeuchi et al.

Extracting coherent patterns is one of the standard approaches towards understanding spatio-temporal data. Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is a powerful tool for extracting coherent patterns, but the original DMD and most of its variants do not consider label information, which is often available as side information of spatio-temporal data. In this work, we propose a new method for extracting distinctive coherent patterns from labeled spatio-temporal data collections, such that they contribute to major differences in a labeled set of dynamics. We achieve such pattern extraction by incorporating discriminant analysis into DMD. To this end, we define a kernel function on subspaces spanned by sets of dynamic modes and develop an objective to take both reconstruction goodness as DMD and class-separation goodness as discriminant analysis into account. We illustrate our method using a synthetic dataset and several real-world datasets. The proposed method can be a useful tool for exploratory data analysis for understanding spatio-temporal data.

Alexander G. de G. Matthews, Mark van der Wilk, Tom Nickson et al.

GPflow is a Gaussian process library that uses TensorFlow for its core computations and Python for its front end. The distinguishing features of GPflow are that it uses variational inference as the primary approximation method, provides concise code through the use of automatic differentiation, has been engineered with a particular emphasis on software testing and is able to exploit GPU hardware.