Amit K Chattopadhyay

Subhagata Chattopadhyay, Amit K Chattopadhyay

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly increased the incidence of post-infection cardiovascular events, particularly myocardial infarction, in individuals over 40. While the underlying mechanisms remain elusive, this study employs a hybrid machine learning approach to analyze epidemiological data in assessing 13 key heart attack risk factors and their susceptibility. Based on a unique dataset that combines demographic, biochemical, ECG, and thallium stress-tests, this study categorizes distinct subpopulations against varying risk profiles and then divides the population into 'at-risk' (AR) and 'not-at-risk' (NAR) groups using clustering algorithms. The study reveals strong association between the likelihood of experiencing a heart attack on the 13 risk factors studied. The aggravated risk for postmenopausal patients indicates compromised individual risk factors due to estrogen depletion that may be, further compromised by extraneous stress impacts, like anxiety and fear, aspects that have traditionally eluded data modeling predictions.

Amit K Chattopadhyay, Subhagata Chattopadhyay

Clinicians make routine diagnosis by scrutinizing patients' medical signs and symptoms, a skill popularly referred to as "Clinical Eye". This skill evolves through trial-and-error and improves with time. The success of the therapeutic regime relies largely on the accuracy of interpretation of such sign-symptoms, analyzing which a clinician assesses the severity of the illness. The present study is an attempt to propose a complementary medical front by mathematically modeling the "Clinical Eye" of a VIRtual DOCtor, using Statistical and Machine Intelligence tools (SMI), to analyze Dengue epidemic infected patients (100 case studies with 11 weighted sign-symptoms). The SMI in VIRDOCD reads medical data and translates these into a vector comprising Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) coefficients to predict infection severity grades of dengue patients that clone the clinician's experience-based assessment. Risk managed through ANOVA, the dengue severity grade prediction accuracy from VIRDOCD is found higher (ca 75%) than conventional clinical practice (ca 71.4%, mean accuracy profile assessed by a team of 10 senior consultants). Free of human errors and capable of deciphering even minute differences from almost identical symptoms (to the Clinical Eye), VIRDOCD is uniquely individualized in its decision-making ability. The algorithm has been validated against Random Forest classification (RF, ca 63%), another regression-based classifier similar to MLR that can be trained through supervised learning. We find that MLR-based VIRDOCD is superior to RF in predicting the grade of Dengue morbidity. VIRDOCD can be further extended to analyze other epidemic infections, such as COVID-19.