Anirudh Subramanyam

Albert Lam, Mihai Anitescu, Anirudh Subramanyam

Measures of power grid vulnerability are often assessed by the amount of damage an adversary can exact on the network. However, the cascading impact of such attacks is often overlooked, even though cascades are one of the primary causes of large-scale blackouts. This paper explores modifications of transmission line protection settings as candidates for adversarial attacks, which can remain undetectable as long as the network equilibrium state remains unaltered. This forms the basis of a black-box function in a Bayesian optimization procedure, where the objective is to find protection settings that maximize network degradation due to cascading. Notably, our proposed method is agnostic to the choice of the cascade simulator and its underlying assumptions. Numerical experiments reveal that, against conventional wisdom, maximally misconfiguring the protection settings of all network lines does not cause the most cascading. More surprisingly, even when the degree of misconfiguration is limited due to resource constraints, it is still possible to find settings that produce cascades comparable in severity to instances where there are no resource constraints.

Tianyang Yi, D. Adrian Maldonado, Anirudh Subramanyam

Chance-constrained optimization has emerged as a promising framework for managing uncertainties in power systems. This work advances its application to the DC Optimal Power Flow (DC-OPF) model, developing a novel approach to uncertainty modeling and estimation. Current methods typically tackle these problems by first modeling random nodal injections using high-dimensional statistical distributions that scale with the number of buses, followed by deriving deterministic reformulations of the probabilistic constraints. We propose an alternative methodology that exploits the constraint structure to inform the uncertainties to be estimated, enabling significant dimensionality reduction. Rather than learning joint distributions of net-load forecast errors across units, we instead directly model the one-dimensional aggregate system forecast error and two-dimensional line errors weighted by power transfer distribution factors. We evaluate our approach under both Gaussian and non-Gaussian distributions on synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating significant improvements in statistical accuracy and optimization performance compared to existing methods.