Fabrice Cotton

Sreenath Vemula, Pierre Jehel, Fabrice Cotton et al.

Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analyses are backbone to building codes, insurance pricing, and disaster management. Yet their open-engine pipelines remain accessible primarily to experts. We present the first agentic interface to the end-to-end probabilistic seismic hazard and risk chain via an open-source server, addressable through the Model Context Protocol (MCP). MCP wraps the OpenQuake engine and the 2020 European Seismic Hazard and Risk Models using twenty-four typed endpoints. Here, an agent is defined as a large language model (LLM) with tools. LLM is confined to the role of an orchestrator so it plans, translates, and explains, while the OpenQuake engine and custom codes compute hazard values, damage probability, and loss. Each response carries source-model, ground-motion model (GMM), and certified data provenance for transparency. Results are benchmarked against ESHM20 at seventy-three cities, the replicated 475-year spectral accelerations match official values within a median of 5 %, and a full hazard-to-loss estimate runs in minutes. The interface additionally accepts a user-supplied empirical or machine-learning GMM on any tectonic region type of the published tree, and adds additional features that existing web services omit: conditional spectra, deterministic scenarios, surface hazard, per-building loss, retrofit comparison, and record selection with waveform retrieval. The proposed design layers transfer to other regional models, and to other hazards.

Kamal Rana, Kushanav Bhuyan, Joaquin Vicente Ferrer et al.

The death toll and monetary damages from landslides continue to rise despite advancements in predictive modeling. The predictive capability of these models is limited as landslide databases used in training and assessing the models often have crucial information missing, such as underlying failure types. Here, we present an approach for identifying failure types based on their movements, e.g., slides and flows by leveraging 3D landslide topology. We observe topological proxies reveal prevalent signatures of mass movement mechanics embedded in the landslide's morphology or shape, such as detecting coupled movement styles within complex landslides. We find identical failure types exhibit similar topological properties, and by using them as predictors, we can identify failure types in historic and event-specific landslide databases (including multi-temporal) from various geomorphological and climatic contexts such as Italy, the US Pacific Northwest region, Denmark, Turkey, and China with 80 to 94 % accuracy. To demonstrate the real-world application of the method, we implement it in two undocumented datasets from China and publicly release the datasets. These new insights can considerably improve the performance of landslide predictive models and impact assessments. Moreover, our work introduces a new paradigm for studying landslide shapes to understand underlying processes through the lens of landslide topology.