Qi Liu

Qinshuo Liu, Yanwen Fang, Pengtao Jiang et al.

Multivariate time series forecasting tasks are usually conducted in a channel-dependent (CD) way since it can incorporate more variable-relevant information. However, it may also involve a lot of irrelevant variables, and this even leads to worse performance than the channel-independent (CI) strategy. This paper combines the strengths of both strategies and proposes the Deep Graph Clustering Transformer (DGCformer) for multivariate time series forecasting. Specifically, it first groups these relevant variables by a graph convolutional network integrated with an autoencoder, and a former-latter masked self-attention mechanism is then considered with the CD strategy being applied to each group of variables while the CI one for different groups. Extensive experimental results on eight datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method against state-of-the-art models, and our code will be publicly available upon acceptance.

Qinshuo Liu, Zixin Wang, Xi-An Li et al.

Semiparametric statistics play a pivotal role in a wide range of domains, including but not limited to missing data, causal inference, and transfer learning, to name a few. In many settings, semiparametric theory leads to (nearly) statistically optimal procedures that yet involve numerically solving Fredholm integral equations of the second kind. Traditional numerical methods, such as polynomial or spline approximations, are difficult to scale to multi-dimensional problems. Alternatively, statisticians may choose to approximate the original integral equations by ones with closed-form solutions, resulting in computationally more efficient, but statistically suboptimal or even incorrect procedures. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel framework by formulating the semiparametric estimation problem as a bi-level optimization problem; and then we develop a scalable algorithm called Deep Neural-Nets Assisted Semiparametric Estimation (DNA-SE) by leveraging the universal approximation property of Deep Neural-Nets (DNN) to streamline semiparametric procedures. Through extensive numerical experiments and a real data analysis, we demonstrate the numerical and statistical advantages of $\dnase$ over traditional methods. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to bring DNN into semiparametric statistics as a numerical solver of integral equations in our proposed general framework.

Huibo Xu, Runlong Yu, Likang Wu et al.

Existing generative models for time series forecasting often transform simple priors (typically Gaussian) into complex data distributions. However, their sampling initialization, independent of historical data, hinders the capture of temporal dependencies, limiting predictive accuracy. They also treat residuals merely as optimization targets, ignoring that residuals often exhibit meaningful patterns like systematic biases or nontrivial distributional structures. To address these, we propose Conditional Guided Flow Matching (CGFM), a novel model-agnostic framework that extends flow matching by integrating outputs from an auxiliary predictive model. This enables learning from the probabilistic structure of prediction residuals, leveraging the auxiliary model's prediction distribution as a source to reduce learning difficulty and refine forecasts. CGFM incorporates historical data as both conditions and guidance, uses two-sided conditional paths (with source and target conditioned on the same history), and employs affine paths to expand the path space, avoiding path crossing without complex mechanisms, preserving temporal consistency, and strengthening distribution alignment. Experiments across datasets and baselines show CGFM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models, advancing forecasting.

Qinshuo Liu, Weiqin Zhao, Wei Huang et al.

The depth of neural networks is a critical factor for their capability, with deeper models often demonstrating superior performance. Motivated by this, significant efforts have been made to enhance layer aggregation - reusing information from previous layers to better extract features at the current layer, to improve the representational power of deep neural networks. However, previous works have primarily addressed this problem from a discrete-state perspective which is not suitable as the number of network layers grows. This paper novelly treats the outputs from layers as states of a continuous process and considers leveraging the state space model (SSM) to design the aggregation of layers in very deep neural networks. Moreover, inspired by its advancements in modeling long sequences, the Selective State Space Models (S6) is employed to design a new module called Selective State Space Model Layer Aggregation (S6LA). This module aims to combine traditional CNN or transformer architectures within a sequential framework, enhancing the representational capabilities of state-of-the-art vision networks. Extensive experiments show that S6LA delivers substantial improvements in both image classification and detection tasks, highlighting the potential of integrating SSMs with contemporary deep learning techniques.