Uncertainty Quantification Using Neural Networks for Molecular Property PredictionLior Hirschfeld, Kyle Swanson, Kevin Yang et al.
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important component of molecular property prediction, particularly for drug discovery applications where model predictions direct experimental design and where unanticipated imprecision wastes valuable time and resources. The need for UQ is especially acute for neural models, which are becoming increasingly standard yet are challenging to interpret. While several approaches to UQ have been proposed in the literature, there is no clear consensus on the comparative performance of these models. In this paper, we study this question in the context of regression tasks. We systematically evaluate several methods on five benchmark datasets using multiple complementary performance metrics. Our experiments show that none of the methods we tested is unequivocally superior to all others, and none produces a particularly reliable ranking of errors across multiple datasets. While we believe these results show that existing UQ methods are not sufficient for all common use-cases and demonstrate the benefits of further research, we conclude with a practical recommendation as to which existing techniques seem to perform well relative to others.
Improving Molecular Design by Stochastic Iterative Target AugmentationKevin Yang, Wengong Jin, Kyle Swanson et al.
Generative models in molecular design tend to be richly parameterized, data-hungry neural models, as they must create complex structured objects as outputs. Estimating such models from data may be challenging due to the lack of sufficient training data. In this paper, we propose a surprisingly effective self-training approach for iteratively creating additional molecular targets. We first pre-train the generative model together with a simple property predictor. The property predictor is then used as a likelihood model for filtering candidate structures from the generative model. Additional targets are iteratively produced and used in the course of stochastic EM iterations to maximize the log-likelihood that the candidate structures are accepted. A simple rejection (re-weighting) sampler suffices to draw posterior samples since the generative model is already reasonable after pre-training. We demonstrate significant gains over strong baselines for both unconditional and conditional molecular design. In particular, our approach outperforms the previous state-of-the-art in conditional molecular design by over 10% in absolute gain. Finally, we show that our approach is useful in other domains as well, such as program synthesis.
31.0CLJun 7, 2019
Building a Production Model for Retrieval-Based ChatbotsKyle Swanson, Lili Yu, Christopher Fox et al.
Response suggestion is an important task for building human-computer conversation systems. Recent approaches to conversation modeling have introduced new model architectures with impressive results, but relatively little attention has been paid to whether these models would be practical in a production setting. In this paper, we describe the unique challenges of building a production retrieval-based conversation system, which selects outputs from a whitelist of candidate responses. To address these challenges, we propose a dual encoder architecture which performs rapid inference and scales well with the size of the whitelist. We also introduce and compare two methods for generating whitelists, and we carry out a comprehensive analysis of the model and whitelists. Experimental results on a large, proprietary help desk chat dataset, including both offline metrics and a human evaluation, indicate production-quality performance and illustrate key lessons about conversation modeling in practice.