Jam Kraprayoon

Matt Mittelsteadt, Jam Kraprayoon, Robin Staes-Polet et al.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents can now orchestrate cyberattacks. This development is already increasing the speed and scale of cyber attacks, decreasing attack costs, and improving the operational autonomy of cyber capabilities. To defend against these emerging threats, actors must first develop the capability to detect them. This report frames the offensive cyber agent detection challenge by outlining the coming detection gap between offensive cyber agents and traditional cyber capabilities; introducing detection-in-depth, a strategic framework to guide policymakers and defenders responding to this detection gap; and presents five actionable detection mechanisms to support policymakers, industry, and defenders when putting this strategic framework into practice. These include (1) Agent Identifiers for Critical Infrastructure,(2) Agent Honeypots; (3) AI-Automated Alert Analysis and Triage: systems that use AI to filter, prioritize, and interpret the growing volume of detection signals expected from autonomous cyber operations; (4) An Agentic Security Alert Standard: A reporting standard model that providers can use to communicate agentic threats, improving the speed, consistency, and actionability of reports; (5) An Agentic Cybersecurity Exchange (ACE): an institution modeled on the Global Signal Exchange that brings together model and cloud providers to detect offensive cyber agent threats at their origin point and coordinate ecosystem-wide agentic threat disruption.

Jam Kraprayoon, Shaun Ee, Brianna Rosen et al.

This report introduces the concept of "Highly Autonomous Cyber-Capable Agents" (HACCAs), AI systems capable of autonomously conducting multi-stage cyber campaigns at a level comparable to today's top criminal hacking groups or state-affiliated threat actors, and analyzes the security implications of their emergence. The report: (1) Defines what HACCAs are and forecasts when they might arrive, establishing a clear framework for an autonomous cyber agent that can operate across the full attack lifecycle without meaningful human direction; (2) Identifies five core operational tactics, detailing how HACCAs could sustain themselves in the wild, from autonomous infrastructure setup and credential harvesting to detection evasion and adaptive shutdown avoidance; (3) Analyzes the strategic implications, including how HACCAs could intensify interstate cyber competition, lower the barrier to entry for sophisticated operations, and proliferate advanced offensive capabilities to criminal groups and less-resourced state actors; (4) Flags two tail risks that deserve serious attention: the potential for autonomous cyber operations to trigger inadvertent cyber-nuclear escalation, and the possibility of sustained loss of control over rogue HACCA deployments; (5) Proposes seven policy recommendations across three goals: understanding the emerging threat, defending against HACCAs, and ensuring their responsible development and deployment.

Joe O'Brien, Jeremy Dolan, Jay Kim et al.

Our survey of 53 specialists across 105 AI reliability and security research areas identifies the most promising research prospects to guide strategic AI R&D investment. As companies are seeking to develop AI systems with broadly human-level capabilities, research on reliability and security is urgently needed to ensure AI's benefits can be safely and broadly realized and prevent severe harms. This study is the first to quantify expert priorities across a comprehensive taxonomy of AI safety and security research directions and to produce a data-driven ranking of their potential impact. These rankings may support evidence-based decisions about how to effectively deploy resources toward AI reliability and security research.