Luke Nicholas Darlow

Luke Darlow, Qiwen Deng, Ahmed Hassan et al.

It is challenging to scale time series forecasting models such that they forecast accurately for multiple distinct domains and datasets, all with potentially different underlying collection procedures (e.g., sample resolution), patterns (e.g., periodicity), and prediction requirements (e.g., reconstruction vs. forecasting). We call this general task universal forecasting. Existing methods usually assume that input data is regularly sampled, and they forecast to pre-determined horizons, resulting in failure to generalise outside of the scope of their training. We propose the DAM - a neural model that takes randomly sampled histories and outputs an adjustable basis composition as a continuous function of time for forecasting to non-fixed horizons. It involves three key components: (1) a flexible approach for using randomly sampled histories from a long-tail distribution, that enables an efficient global perspective of the underlying temporal dynamics while retaining focus on the recent history; (2) a transformer backbone that is trained on these actively sampled histories to produce, as representational output, (3) the basis coefficients of a continuous function of time. We show that a single univariate DAM, trained on 25 time series datasets, either outperformed or closely matched existing SoTA models at multivariate long-term forecasting across 18 datasets, including 8 held-out for zero-shot transfer, even though these models were trained to specialise for each dataset-horizon combination. This single DAM excels at zero-shot transfer and very-long-term forecasting, performs well at imputation, is interpretable via basis function composition and attention, can be tuned for different inference-cost requirements, is robust to missing and irregularly sampled data {by design}.

Artjom Joosen, Ahmed Hassan, Martin Asenov et al.

This paper releases and analyzes two new Huawei cloud serverless traces. The traces span a period of over 7 months with over 1.4 trillion function invocations combined. The first trace is derived from Huawei's internal workloads and contains detailed per-second statistics for 200 functions running across multiple Huawei cloud data centers. The second trace is a representative workload from Huawei's public FaaS platform. This trace contains per-minute arrival rates for over 5000 functions running in a single Huawei data center. We present the internals of a production FaaS platform by characterizing resource consumption, cold-start times, programming languages used, periodicity, per-second versus per-minute burstiness, correlations, and popularity. Our findings show that there is considerable diversity in how serverless functions behave: requests vary by up to 9 orders of magnitude across functions, with some functions executed over 1 billion times per day; scheduling time, execution time and cold-start distributions vary across 2 to 4 orders of magnitude and have very long tails; and function invocation counts demonstrate strong periodicity for many individual functions and on an aggregate level. Our analysis also highlights the need for further research in estimating resource reservations and time-series prediction to account for the huge diversity in how serverless functions behave. Datasets and code available at https://github.com/sir-lab/data-release

William Toner, Luke Darlow

Despite their simplicity, linear models perform well at time series forecasting, even when pitted against deeper and more expensive models. A number of variations to the linear model have been proposed, often including some form of feature normalisation that improves model generalisation. In this paper we analyse the sets of functions expressible using these linear model architectures. In so doing we show that several popular variants of linear models for time series forecasting are equivalent and functionally indistinguishable from standard, unconstrained linear regression. We characterise the model classes for each linear variant. We demonstrate that each model can be reinterpreted as unconstrained linear regression over a suitably augmented feature set, and therefore admit closed-form solutions when using a mean-squared loss function. We provide experimental evidence that the models under inspection learn nearly identical solutions, and finally demonstrate that the simpler closed form solutions are superior forecasters across 72% of test settings.

Luke Darlow, Stanisław Jastrzębski, Amos Storkey

Collider bias is a harmful form of sample selection bias that neural networks are ill-equipped to handle. This bias manifests itself when the underlying causal signal is strongly correlated with other confounding signals due to the training data collection procedure. In the situation where the confounding signal is easy-to-learn, deep neural networks will latch onto this and the resulting model will generalise poorly to in-the-wild test scenarios. We argue herein that the cause of failure is a combination of the deep structure of neural networks and the greedy gradient-driven learning process used - one that prefers easy-to-compute signals when available. We show it is possible to mitigate against this by generating bias-decoupled training data using latent adversarial debiasing (LAD), even when the confounding signal is present in 100% of the training data. By training neural networks on these adversarial examples,we can improve their generalisation in collider bias settings. Experiments show state-of-the-art performance of LAD in label-free debiasing with gains of 76.12% on background coloured MNIST, 35.47% on fore-ground coloured MNIST, and 8.27% on corrupted CIFAR-10.

Luke Nicholas Darlow, Amos Storkey

Recently, a number of competitive methods have tackled unsupervised representation learning by maximising the mutual information between the representations produced from augmentations. The resulting representations are then invariant to stochastic augmentation strategies, and can be used for downstream tasks such as clustering or classification. Yet data augmentations preserve many properties of an image and so there is potential for a suboptimal choice of representation that relies on matching easy-to-find features in the data. We demonstrate that greedy or local methods of maximising mutual information (such as stochastic gradient optimisation) discover local optima of the mutual information criterion; the resulting representations are also less-ideally suited to complex downstream tasks. Earlier work has not specifically identified or addressed this issue. We introduce deep hierarchical object grouping (DHOG) that computes a number of distinct discrete representations of images in a hierarchical order, eventually generating representations that better optimise the mutual information objective. We also find that these representations align better with the downstream task of grouping into underlying object classes. We tested DHOG on unsupervised clustering, which is a natural downstream test as the target representation is a discrete labelling of the data. We achieved new state-of-the-art results on the three main benchmarks without any prefiltering or Sobel-edge detection that proved necessary for many previous methods to work. We obtain accuracy improvements of: 4.3% on CIFAR-10, 1.5% on CIFAR-100-20, and 7.2% on SVHN.

Luke Nicholas Darlow, Amos Storkey

The information bottleneck principle (Shwartz-Ziv & Tishby, 2017) suggests that SGD-based training of deep neural networks results in optimally compressed hidden layers, from an information theoretic perspective. However, this claim was established on toy data. The goal of the work we present here is to test whether the information bottleneck principle is applicable to a realistic setting using a larger and deeper convolutional architecture, a ResNet model. We trained PixelCNN++ models as inverse representation decoders to measure the mutual information between hidden layers of a ResNet and input image data, when trained for (1) classification and (2) autoencoding. We find that two stages of learning happen for both training regimes, and that compression does occur, even for an autoencoder. Sampling images by conditioning on hidden layers' activations offers an intuitive visualisation to understand what a ResNets learns to forget.

Luke N. Darlow, Amos J. Storkey

This informal technical report details the geometric illustration of decision boundaries for ReLU units in a three layer fully connected neural network. The network is designed and trained to predict pixel intensity from an (x, y) input location. The Geometric Illustration of Neural Networks (GINN) tool was built to visualise and track the points at which ReLU units switch from being active to off (or vice versa) as the network undergoes training. Several phenomenon were observed and are discussed herein. This technical report is a supporting document to the blog post with online demos and is available at http://www.bayeswatch.com/2018/09/17/GINN/.

Luke N. Darlow, Elliot J. Crowley, Antreas Antoniou et al.

In this brief technical report we introduce the CINIC-10 dataset as a plug-in extended alternative for CIFAR-10. It was compiled by combining CIFAR-10 with images selected and downsampled from the ImageNet database. We present the approach to compiling the dataset, illustrate the example images for different classes, give pixel distributions for each part of the repository, and give some standard benchmarks for well known models. Details for download, usage, and compilation can be found in the associated github repository.