Emir Konuk

Robert Welch, Emir Konuk, Kevin Smith

Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes settings where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is as important as predictive accuracy. Extended reasoning via chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting or reasoning-trained models has become ubiquitous in modern VLM pipelines, yet its effect on UQ reliability remains poorly understood. We show that reasoning consistently degrades the quality of most uncertainty estimates, even when it improves task accuracy. We identify implicit answer conditioning as the primary mechanism: as reasoning traces converge on a conclusion before the final answer is generated, token probabilities increasingly reflect consistency with the model's own reasoning trace rather than uncertainty about correctness. In effect, the model becomes overconfident in its answer. In contrast, agreement-based consistency remains robust and often improves under reasoning, making it a practical choice for uncertainty estimation in reasoning-enabled VLMs.

Moein Sorkhei, Christos Matsoukas, Johan Fredin Haslum et al.

How well can one expect transfer learning to work in a new setting where the domain is shifted, the task is different, and the architecture changes? Many transfer learning metrics have been proposed to answer this question. But how accurate are their predictions in a realistic new setting? We conducted an extensive evaluation involving over 42,000 experiments comparing 23 transferability metrics across 16 different datasets to assess their ability to predict transfer performance. Our findings reveal that none of the existing metrics perform well across the board. However, we find that a simple k-nearest neighbor evaluation -- as is commonly used to evaluate feature quality for self-supervision -- not only surpasses existing metrics, but also offers better computational efficiency and ease of implementation.

Christos Matsoukas, Albert Bou I Hernandez, Yue Liu et al.

Evidence suggests that networks trained on large datasets generalize well not solely because of the numerous training examples, but also class diversity which encourages learning of enriched features. This raises the question of whether this remains true when data is scarce - is there an advantage to learning with additional labels in low-data regimes? In this work, we consider a task that requires difficult-to-obtain expert annotations: tumor segmentation in mammography images. We show that, in low-data settings, performance can be improved by complementing the expert annotations with seemingly uninformative labels from non-expert annotators, turning the task into a multi-class problem. We reveal that these gains increase when less expert data is available, and uncover several interesting properties through further studies. We demonstrate our findings on CSAW-S, a new dataset that we introduce here, and confirm them on two public datasets.

Emir Konuk, Kevin Smith

In this preregistration submission, we propose an empirical study of how networks handle changes in complexity of the data. We investigate the effect of network capacity on generalization performance in the face of increasing data complexity. For this, we measure the generalization error for an image classification task where the number of classes steadily increases. We compare a number of modern architectures at different scales in this setting. The methodology, setup, and hypotheses described in this proposal were evaluated by peer review before experiments were conducted.