Mengyue Zha

Mengyue Zha, Kani Chen, Tong Zhang

We enhance the accuracy and generalization of univariate time series point prediction by an explainable ensemble on the fly. We propose an Interpretable Dynamic Ensemble Architecture (IDEA), in which interpretable base learners give predictions independently with sparse communication as a group. The model is composed of several sequentially stacked groups connected by group backcast residuals and recurrent input competition. Ensemble driven by end-to-end training both horizontally and vertically brings state-of-the-art (SOTA) performances. Forecast accuracy improves by 2.6% over the best statistical benchmark on the TOURISM dataset and 2% over the best deep learning benchmark on the M4 dataset. The architecture enjoys several advantages, being applicable to time series from various domains, explainable to users with specialized modular structure and robust to changes in task distribution.

Mengyue Zha, SiuTim Wong, Mengqi Liu et al.

This paper shows that masked autoencoder with extrapolator (ExtraMAE) is a scalable self-supervised model for time series generation. ExtraMAE randomly masks some patches of the original time series and learns temporal dynamics by recovering the masked patches. Our approach has two core designs. First, ExtraMAE is self-supervised. Supervision allows ExtraMAE to effectively and efficiently capture the temporal dynamics of the original time series. Second, ExtraMAE proposes an extrapolator to disentangle two jobs of the decoder: recovering latent representations and mapping them back into the feature space. These unique designs enable ExtraMAE to consistently and significantly outperform state-of-the-art (SoTA) benchmarks in time series generation. The lightweight architecture also makes ExtraMAE fast and scalable. ExtraMAE shows outstanding behavior in various downstream tasks such as time series classification, prediction, and imputation. As a self-supervised generative model, ExtraMAE allows explicit management of the synthetic data. We hope this paper will usher in a new era of time series generation with self-supervised models.