Kayhan Moharreri

Zara Zetlin, Kayhan Moharreri, Maria Safi

We introduce TopoPrimer, a framework that makes the global topological structure of the series population an explicit input to any forecasting model. TopoPrimer improves accuracy across diverse domains, stabilizes forecasts under seasonal demand spikes, and closes the cold-start gap. Precomputed once per domain via persistent homology and spectral sheaf coordinates, TopoPrimer deploys per token for fully-trained models and as a lightweight adapter for pre-trained backbones. Of these two components, sheaf coordinates are the primary accuracy driver. Across four public benchmarks on Chronos and TimesFM, TopoPrimer consistently improves forecasting accuracy, with gains of up to 7.3% MSE on ECL. The topology advantage persists with near-identical magnitude across zero-shot and fine-tuned backbones, suggesting topology and per-series training capture complementary signals. The gains are most pronounced in difficult regimes. Under peak seasonal demand, classical and zero-shot models degrade by up to 50%, while TopoPrimer stays within 10%. At cold start with no item history, TopoPrimer reduces MAE by 27% over a topology-free baseline.

Kayhan Moharreri, Minsu Ha, Ross H Nehm

EvoGrader is a free, online, on-demand formative assessment service designed for use in undergraduate biology classrooms. EvoGrader's web portal is powered by Amazon's Elastic Cloud and run with LightSIDE Lab's open-source machine-learning tools. The EvoGrader web portal allows biology instructors to upload a response file (.csv) containing unlimited numbers of evolutionary explanations written in response to 86 different ACORNS (Assessing COntextual Reasoning about Natural Selection) instrument items. The system automatically analyzes the responses and provides detailed information about the scientific and naive concepts contained within each student's response, as well as overall student (and sample) reasoning model types. Graphs and visual models provided by EvoGrader summarize class-level responses; downloadable files of raw scores (in .csv format) are also provided for more detailed analyses. Although the computational machinery that EvoGrader employs is complex, using the system is easy. Users only need to know how to use spreadsheets to organize student responses, upload files to the web, and use a web browser. A series of experiments using new samples of 2,200 written evolutionary explanations demonstrate that EvoGrader scores are comparable to those of trained human raters, although EvoGrader scoring takes 99% less time and is free. EvoGrader will be of interest to biology instructors teaching large classes who seek to emphasize scientific practices such as generating scientific explanations, and to teach crosscutting ideas such as evolution and natural selection. The software architecture of EvoGrader is described as it may serve as a template for developing machine-learning portals for other core concepts within biology and across other disciplines.