Maximilian Springenberg

Gabriel Nobis, Maximilian Springenberg, Marco Aversa et al.

We introduce the first continuous-time score-based generative model that leverages fractional diffusion processes for its underlying dynamics. Although diffusion models have excelled at capturing data distributions, they still suffer from various limitations such as slow convergence, mode-collapse on imbalanced data, and lack of diversity. These issues are partially linked to the use of light-tailed Brownian motion (BM) with independent increments. In this paper, we replace BM with an approximation of its non-Markovian counterpart, fractional Brownian motion (fBM), characterized by correlated increments and Hurst index $H \in (0,1)$, where $H=0.5$ recovers the classical BM. To ensure tractable inference and learning, we employ a recently popularized Markov approximation of fBM (MA-fBM) and derive its reverse-time model, resulting in generative fractional diffusion models (GFDM). We characterize the forward dynamics using a continuous reparameterization trick and propose augmented score matching to efficiently learn the score function, which is partly known in closed form, at minimal added cost. The ability to drive our diffusion model via MA-fBM offers flexibility and control. $H \leq 0.5$ enters the regime of rough paths whereas $H>0.5$ regularizes diffusion paths and invokes long-term memory. The Markov approximation allows added control by varying the number of Markov processes linearly combined to approximate fBM. Our evaluations on real image datasets demonstrate that GFDM achieves greater pixel-wise diversity and enhanced image quality, as indicated by a lower FID, offering a promising alternative to traditional diffusion models

Maximilian Springenberg, Annika Frommholz, Markus Wenzel et al.

While machine learning is currently transforming the field of histopathology, the domain lacks a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art models based on essential but complementary quality requirements beyond a mere classification accuracy. In order to fill this gap, we developed a new methodology to extensively evaluate a wide range of classification models, including recent vision transformers, and convolutional neural networks such as: ConvNeXt, ResNet (BiT), Inception, ViT and Swin transformer, with and without supervised or self-supervised pretraining. We thoroughly tested the models on five widely used histopathology datasets containing whole slide images of breast, gastric, and colorectal cancer and developed a novel approach using an image-to-image translation model to assess the robustness of a cancer classification model against stain variations. Further, we extended existing interpretability methods to previously unstudied models and systematically reveal insights of the models' classifications strategies that can be transferred to future model architectures.

Gabriel Nobis, Maximilian Springenberg, Arina Belova et al.

We present Fractional Diffusion Bridge Models (FDBM), a novel generative diffusion bridge framework driven by an approximation of the rich and non-Markovian fractional Brownian motion (fBM). Real stochastic processes exhibit a degree of memory effects (correlations in time), long-range dependencies, roughness and anomalous diffusion phenomena that are not captured in standard diffusion or bridge modeling due to the use of Brownian motion (BM). As a remedy, leveraging a recent Markovian approximation of fBM (MA-fBM), we construct FDBM that enable tractable inference while preserving the non-Markovian nature of fBM. We prove the existence of a coupling-preserving generative diffusion bridge and leverage it for future state prediction from paired training data. We then extend our formulation to the Schrödinger bridge problem and derive a principled loss function to learn the unpaired data translation. We evaluate FDBM on both tasks: predicting future protein conformations from aligned data, and unpaired image translation. In both settings, FDBM achieves superior performance compared to the Brownian baselines, yielding lower root mean squared deviation (RMSD) of C$_α$ atomic positions in protein structure prediction and lower Fréchet Inception Distance (FID) in unpaired image translation.

Maximilian Springenberg, Noelia Otero, Yuxin Xue et al.

Renewable resources are strongly dependent on local and large-scale weather situations. Skillful subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts -- beyond two weeks and up to two months -- can offer significant socioeconomic advantages to the energy sector. This study aims to enhance wind speed predictions using a diffusion model with classifier-free guidance to downscale S2S forecasts of surface wind speed. We propose DiffScale, a diffusion model that super-resolves spatial information for continuous downscaling factors and lead times. Leveraging weather priors as guidance for the generative process of diffusion models, we adopt the perspective of conditional probabilities on sampling super-resolved S2S forecasts. We aim to directly estimate the density associated with the target S2S forecasts at different spatial resolutions and lead times without auto-regression or sequence prediction, resulting in an efficient and flexible model. Synthetic experiments were designed to super-resolve wind speed S2S forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) from a coarse resolution to a finer resolution of ERA5 reanalysis data, which serves as a high-resolution target. The innovative aspect of DiffScale lies in its flexibility to downscale arbitrary scaling factors, enabling it to generalize across various grid resolutions and lead times -without retraining the model- while correcting model errors, making it a versatile tool for improving S2S wind speed forecasts. We achieve a significant improvement in prediction quality, outperforming baselines up to week 3.