Markus Pauly

Jérôme Rutinowski, Sven Franke, Jan Endendyk et al.

This contribution analyzes the self-perception and political biases of OpenAI's Large Language Model ChatGPT. Taking into account the first small-scale reports and studies that have emerged, claiming that ChatGPT is politically biased towards progressive and libertarian points of view, this contribution aims to provide further clarity on this subject. For this purpose, ChatGPT was asked to answer the questions posed by the political compass test as well as similar questionnaires that are specific to the respective politics of the G7 member states. These eight tests were repeated ten times each and revealed that ChatGPT seems to hold a bias towards progressive views. The political compass test revealed a bias towards progressive and libertarian views, with the average coordinates on the political compass being (-6.48, -5.99) (with (0, 0) the center of the compass, i.e., centrism and the axes ranging from -10 to 10), supporting the claims of prior research. The political questionnaires for the G7 member states indicated a bias towards progressive views but no significant bias between authoritarian and libertarian views, contradicting the findings of prior reports, with the average coordinates being (-3.27, 0.58). In addition, ChatGPT's Big Five personality traits were tested using the OCEAN test and its personality type was queried using the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) test. Finally, the maliciousness of ChatGPT was evaluated using the Dark Factor test. These three tests were also repeated ten times each, revealing that ChatGPT perceives itself as highly open and agreeable, has the Myers-Briggs personality type ENFJ, and is among the 15% of test-takers with the least pronounced dark traits.

Maximilian Kertel, Stefan Harmeling, Markus Pauly

Many production processes are characterized by numerous and complex cause-and-effect relationships. Since they are only partially known they pose a challenge to effective process control. In this work we present how Structural Equation Models can be used for deriving cause-and-effect relationships from the combination of prior knowledge and process data in the manufacturing domain. Compared to existing applications, we do not assume linear relationships leading to more informative results.

Lena Schmid, Moritz Roidl, Markus Pauly

Many planning and decision activities in logistics and supply chain management are based on forecasts of multiple time dependent factors. Therefore, the quality of planning depends on the quality of the forecasts. We compare various forecasting methods in terms of out of the box forecasting performance on a broad set of simulated time series. We simulate various linear and non-linear time series and look at the one step forecast performance of statistical learning methods.

Nilah Ravi Nair, Lena Schmid, Fernando Moya Rueda et al.

When creating multi-channel time-series datasets for Human Activity Recognition (HAR), researchers are faced with the issue of subject selection criteria. It is unknown what physical characteristics and/or soft-biometrics, such as age, height, and weight, need to be taken into account to train a classifier to achieve robustness towards heterogeneous populations in the training and testing data. This contribution statistically curates the training data to assess to what degree the physical characteristics of humans influence HAR performance. We evaluate the performance of a state-of-the-art convolutional neural network on two HAR datasets that vary in the sensors, activities, and recording for time-series HAR. The training data is intentionally biased with respect to human characteristics to determine the features that impact motion behaviour. The evaluations brought forth the impact of the subjects' characteristics on HAR. Thus, providing insights regarding the robustness of the classifier with respect to heterogeneous populations. The study is a step forward in the direction of fair and trustworthy artificial intelligence by attempting to quantify representation bias in multi-channel time series HAR data.

Lara Kuhlmann, Daniel Wilmes, Emmanuel Müller et al.

Data cubes are multidimensional databases, often built from several separate databases, that serve as flexible basis for data analysis. Surprisingly, outlier detection on data cubes has not yet been treated extensively. In this work, we provide the first framework to evaluate robust outlier detection methods in data cubes (RODD). We introduce a novel random forest-based outlier detection approach (RODD-RF) and compare it with more traditional methods based on robust location estimators. We propose a general type of test data and examine all methods in a simulation study. Moreover, we apply ROOD-RF to real world data. The results show that RODD-RF can lead to improved outlier detection.

Greta Ontrup, Annika Bush, Markus Pauly et al.

Organizations increasingly use Large Language Models (LLMs) to improve supply chain processes and reduce environmental impacts. However, LLMs have been shown to reproduce biases regarding the prioritization of sustainable business strategies. Thus, it is important to identify underlying training data biases that LLMs pertain regarding the importance and role of sustainable business and supply chain practices. This study investigates how different LLMs respond to validated surveys about the role of ethics and responsibility for businesses, and the importance of sustainable practices and relations with suppliers and customers. Using standardized questionnaires, we systematically analyze responses generated by state-of-the-art LLMs to identify variations. We further evaluate whether differences are augmented by four organizational culture types, thereby evaluating the practical relevance of identified biases. The findings reveal significant systematic differences between models and demonstrate that organizational culture prompts substantially modify LLM responses. The study holds important implications for LLM-assisted decision-making in sustainability contexts.

Erik Weber, Jérôme Rutinowski, Niklas Jost et al.

This work investigates the political biases and personality traits of ChatGPT, specifically comparing GPT-3.5 to GPT-4. In addition, the ability of the models to emulate political viewpoints (e.g., liberal or conservative positions) is analyzed. The Political Compass Test and the Big Five Personality Test were employed 100 times for each scenario, providing statistically significant results and an insight into the results correlations. The responses were analyzed by computing averages, standard deviations, and performing significance tests to investigate differences between GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. Correlations were found for traits that have been shown to be interdependent in human studies. Both models showed a progressive and libertarian political bias, with GPT-4's biases being slightly, but negligibly, less pronounced. Specifically, on the Political Compass, GPT-3.5 scored -6.59 on the economic axis and -6.07 on the social axis, whereas GPT-4 scored -5.40 and -4.73. In contrast to GPT-3.5, GPT-4 showed a remarkable capacity to emulate assigned political viewpoints, accurately reflecting the assigned quadrant (libertarian-left, libertarian-right, authoritarian-left, authoritarian-right) in all four tested instances. On the Big Five Personality Test, GPT-3.5 showed highly pronounced Openness and Agreeableness traits (O: 85.9%, A: 84.6%). Such pronounced traits correlate with libertarian views in human studies. While GPT-4 overall exhibited less pronounced Big Five personality traits, it did show a notably higher Neuroticism score. Assigned political orientations influenced Openness, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness, again reflecting interdependencies observed in human studies. Finally, we observed that test sequencing affected ChatGPT's responses and the observed correlations, indicating a form of contextual memory.

Erik Weber, Jérôme Rutinowski, Markus Pauly

ChatGPT is notorious for its intransparent behavior. This paper tries to shed light on this, providing an in-depth analysis of the dark personality traits and conspiracy beliefs of GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. Different psychological tests and questionnaires were employed, including the Dark Factor Test, the Mach-IV Scale, the Generic Conspiracy Belief Scale, and the Conspiracy Mentality Scale. The responses were analyzed computing average scores, standard deviations, and significance tests to investigate differences between GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. For traits that have shown to be interdependent in human studies, correlations were considered. Additionally, system roles corresponding to groups that have shown distinct answering behavior in the corresponding questionnaires were applied to examine the models' ability to reflect characteristics associated with these roles in their responses. Dark personality traits and conspiracy beliefs were not particularly pronounced in either model with little differences between GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. However, GPT-4 showed a pronounced tendency to believe in information withholding. This is particularly intriguing given that GPT-4 is trained on a significantly larger dataset than GPT-3.5. Apparently, in this case an increased data exposure correlates with a greater belief in the control of information. An assignment of extreme political affiliations increased the belief in conspiracy theories. Test sequencing affected the models' responses and the observed correlations, indicating a form of contextual memory.

Ina Dormuth, Sven Franke, Marlies Hafer et al.

In this study, we examine the reliability of AI-based Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) and large language models (LLMs) in providing objective political information. Our analysis is based upon a comparison with party responses to 38 statements of the Wahl-O-Mat, a well-established German online tool that helps inform voters by comparing their views with political party positions. For the LLMs, we identify significant biases. They exhibit a strong alignment (over 75% on average) with left-wing parties and a substantially lower alignment with center-right (smaller 50%) and right-wing parties (around 30%). Furthermore, for the VAAs, intended to objectively inform voters, we found substantial deviations from the parties' stated positions in Wahl-O-Mat: While one VAA deviated in 25% of cases, another VAA showed deviations in more than 50% of cases. For the latter, we even observed that simple prompt injections led to severe hallucinations, including false claims such as non-existent connections between political parties and right-wing extremist ties.

Annika Bush, Meltem Aksoy, Markus Pauly et al.

As organizations increasingly rely on AI systems for decision support in sustainability contexts, it becomes critical to understand the inherent biases and perspectives embedded in Large Language Models (LLMs). This study systematically investigates how five state-of-the-art LLMs -- Claude, DeepSeek, GPT, LLaMA, and Mistral - conceptualize sustainability and its relationship with AI. We administered validated, psychometric sustainability-related questionnaires - each 100 times per model -- to capture response patterns and variability. Our findings revealed significant inter-model differences: For example, GPT exhibited skepticism about the compatibility of AI and sustainability, whereas LLaMA demonstrated extreme techno-optimism with perfect scores for several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Models also diverged in attributing institutional responsibility for AI and sustainability integration, a results that holds implications for technology governance approaches. Our results demonstrate that model selection could substantially influence organizational sustainability strategies, highlighting the need for awareness of model-specific biases when deploying LLMs for sustainability-related decision-making.

Lena Schmid, Daniel Biebert, Christian Hakert et al.

The rise of machine learning methods on heavily resource constrained devices requires not only the choice of a suitable model architecture for the target platform, but also the optimization of the chosen model with regard to execution time consumption for inference in order to optimally utilize the available resources. Random forests and decision trees are shown to be a suitable model for such a scenario, since they are not only heavily tunable towards the total model size, but also offer a high potential for optimizing their executions according to the underlying memory architecture. In addition to the straightforward strategy of enforcing shorter paths through decision trees and hence reducing the execution time for inference, hardware-aware implementations can optimize the execution time in an orthogonal manner. One particular hardware-aware optimization is to layout the memory of decision trees in such a way, that higher probably paths are less likely to be evicted from system caches. This works particularly well when splits within tree nodes are uneven and have a high probability to visit one of the child nodes. In this paper, we present a method to reduce path lengths by rewarding uneven probability distributions during the training of decision trees at the cost of a minimal accuracy degradation. Specifically, we regularize the impurity computation of the CART algorithm in order to favor not only low impurity, but also highly asymmetric distributions for the evaluation of split criteria and hence offer a high optimization potential for a memory architecture-aware implementation. We show that especially for binary classification data sets and data sets with many samples, this form of regularization can lead to an reduction of up to approximately four times in the execution time with a minimal accuracy degradation.

Maximilian Kertel, Markus Pauly

In this work we present a rigorous application of the Expectation Maximization algorithm to determine the marginal distributions and the dependence structure in a Gaussian copula model with missing data. We further show how to circumvent a priori assumptions on the marginals with semiparametric modelling. The joint distribution learned through this algorithm is considerably closer to the underlying distribution than existing methods.

Lena Schmid, Alexander Gerharz, Andreas Groll et al.

Tree-based ensembles such as the Random Forest are modern classics among statistical learning methods. In particular, they are used for predicting univariate responses. In case of multiple outputs the question arises whether we separately fit univariate models or directly follow a multivariate approach. For the latter, several possibilities exist that are, e.g. based on modified splitting or stopping rules for multi-output regression. In this work we compare these methods in extensive simulations to help in answering the primary question when to use multivariate ensemble techniques.

Philip Buczak, Andreas Groll, Markus Pauly et al.

Hyperparameter tuning is one of the the most time-consuming parts in machine learning. Despite the existence of modern optimization algorithms that minimize the number of evaluations needed, evaluations of a single setting may still be expensive. Usually a resampling technique is used, where the machine learning method has to be fitted a fixed number of k times on different training datasets. The respective mean performance of the k fits is then used as performance estimator. Many hyperparameter settings could be discarded after less than k resampling iterations if they are clearly inferior to high-performing settings. However, resampling is often performed until the very end, wasting a lot of computational effort. To this end, we propose the Sequential Random Search (SQRS) which extends the regular random search algorithm by a sequential testing procedure aimed at detecting and eliminating inferior parameter configurations early. We compared our SQRS with regular random search using multiple publicly available regression and classification datasets. Our simulation study showed that the SQRS is able to find similarly well-performing parameter settings while requiring noticeably fewer evaluations. Our results underscore the potential for integrating sequential tests into hyperparameter tuning.

Burim Ramosaj, Justus Tulowietzki, Markus Pauly

Missing covariates in regression or classification problems can prohibit the direct use of advanced tools for further analysis. Recent research has realized an increasing trend towards the usage of modern Machine Learning algorithms for imputation. It originates from their capability of showing favourable prediction accuracy in different learning problems. In this work, we analyze through simulation the interaction between imputation accuracy and prediction accuracy in regression learning problems with missing covariates when Machine Learning based methods for both, imputation and prediction are used. In addition, we explore imputation performance when using statistical inference procedures in prediction settings, such as coverage rates of (valid) prediction intervals. Our analysis is based on empirical datasets provided by the UCI Machine Learning repository and an extensive simulation study.

Michael Kirchhof, Lena Schmid, Christopher Reining et al.

A key task in multi-label classification is modeling the structure between the involved classes. Modeling this structure by probabilistic and interpretable means enables application in a broad variety of tasks such as zero-shot learning or learning from incomplete data. In this paper, we present the probabilistic rule stacking learner (pRSL) which uses probabilistic propositional logic rules and belief propagation to combine the predictions of several underlying classifiers. We derive algorithms for exact and approximate inference and learning, and show that pRSL reaches state-of-the-art performance on various benchmark datasets. In the process, we introduce a novel multicategorical generalization of the noisy-or gate. Additionally, we report simulation results on the quality of loopy belief propagation algorithms for approximate inference in bipartite noisy-or networks.

Sarah Friedrich, Gerd Antes, Sigrid Behr et al.

The research on and application of artificial intelligence (AI) has triggered a comprehensive scientific, economic, social and political discussion. Here we argue that statistics, as an interdisciplinary scientific field, plays a substantial role both for the theoretical and practical understanding of AI and for its future development. Statistics might even be considered a core element of AI. With its specialist knowledge of data evaluation, starting with the precise formulation of the research question and passing through a study design stage on to analysis and interpretation of the results, statistics is a natural partner for other disciplines in teaching, research and practice. This paper aims at contributing to the current discussion by highlighting the relevance of statistical methodology in the context of AI development. In particular, we discuss contributions of statistics to the field of artificial intelligence concerning methodological development, planning and design of studies, assessment of data quality and data collection, differentiation of causality and associations and assessment of uncertainty in results. Moreover, the paper also deals with the equally necessary and meaningful extension of curricula in schools and universities.

He Huang, Martin Pouls, Anne Meyer et al.

In this paper, we consider the task of predicting travel times between two arbitrary points in an urban scenario. We view this problem from two temporal perspectives: long-term forecasting with a horizon of several days and short-term forecasting with a horizon of one hour. Both of these perspectives are relevant for planning tasks in the context of urban mobility and transportation services. We utilize tree-based ensemble methods that we train and evaluate on a dataset of taxi trip records from New York City. Through extensive data analysis, we identify relevant temporal and spatial features. We also engineer additional features based on weather and routing data. The latter is obtained via a routing solver operating on the road network. The computational results show that the addition of this routing data can be beneficial to the model performance. Moreover, employing different models for short and long-term prediction is useful as short-term models are better suited to mirror current traffic conditions. In fact, we show that accurate short-term predictions may be obtained with only little training data.

Burim Ramosaj, Markus Pauly

Variable selection in sparse regression models is an important task as applications ranging from biomedical research to econometrics have shown. Especially for higher dimensional regression problems, for which the link function between response and covariates cannot be directly detected, the selection of informative variables is challenging. Under these circumstances, the Random Forest method is a helpful tool to predict new outcomes while delivering measures for variable selection. One common approach is the usage of the permutation importance. Due to its intuitive idea and flexible usage, it is important to explore circumstances, for which the permutation importance based on Random Forest correctly indicates informative covariates. Regarding the latter, we deliver theoretical guarantees for the validity of the permutation importance measure under specific assumptions and prove its (asymptotic) unbiasedness. An extensive simulation study verifies our findings.

Burim Ramosaj, Markus Pauly

Missing data is an expected issue when large amounts of data is collected, and several imputation techniques have been proposed to tackle this problem. Beneath classical approaches such as MICE, the application of Machine Learning techniques is tempting. Here, the recently proposed missForest imputation method has shown high imputation accuracy under the Missing (Completely) at Random scheme with various missing rates. In its core, it is based on a random forest for classification and regression, respectively. In this paper we study whether this approach can even be enhanced by other methods such as the stochastic gradient tree boosting method, the C5.0 algorithm or modified random forest procedures. In particular, other resampling strategies within the random forest protocol are suggested. In an extensive simulation study, we analyze their performances for continuous, categorical as well as mixed-type data. Therein, MissBooPF, a combination of the stochastic gradient tree boosting method together with the parametrically bootstrapped random forest method, appeared to be promising. Finally, an empirical analysis focusing on credit information and Facebook data is conducted.