J. E. Geach

Michael J. Smith, James E. Geach

In this review, we explore the historical development and future prospects of artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning in astronomy. We trace the evolution of connectionism in astronomy through its three waves, from the early use of multilayer perceptrons, to the rise of convolutional and recurrent neural networks, and finally to the current era of unsupervised and generative deep learning methods. With the exponential growth of astronomical data, deep learning techniques offer an unprecedented opportunity to uncover valuable insights and tackle previously intractable problems. As we enter the anticipated fourth wave of astronomical connectionism, we argue for the adoption of GPT-like foundation models fine-tuned for astronomical applications. Such models could harness the wealth of high-quality, multimodal astronomical data to serve state-of-the-art downstream tasks. To keep pace with advancements driven by Big Tech, we propose a collaborative, open-source approach within the astronomy community to develop and maintain these foundation models, fostering a symbiotic relationship between AI and astronomy that capitalizes on the unique strengths of both fields.

Michael J. Smith, Luke Fleming, James E. Geach

We introduce EarthPT -- an Earth Observation (EO) pretrained transformer. EarthPT is a 700 million parameter decoding transformer foundation model trained in an autoregressive self-supervised manner and developed specifically with EO use-cases in mind. We demonstrate that EarthPT is an effective forecaster that can accurately predict future pixel-level surface reflectances across the 400-2300 nm range well into the future. For example, forecasts of the evolution of the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have a typical error of approximately 0.05 (over a natural range of -1 -> 1) at the pixel level over a five month test set horizon, out-performing simple phase-folded models based on historical averaging. We also demonstrate that embeddings learnt by EarthPT hold semantically meaningful information and could be exploited for downstream tasks such as highly granular, dynamic land use classification. Excitingly, we note that the abundance of EO data provides us with -- in theory -- quadrillions of training tokens. Therefore, if we assume that EarthPT follows neural scaling laws akin to those derived for Large Language Models (LLMs), there is currently no data-imposed limit to scaling EarthPT and other similar `Large Observation Models.'

Michael J. Smith, Luke Fleming, James E. Geach et al.

We present Dargana, a fine-tuned variant of the EarthPT time-series foundation model that achieves specialisation using <3% of its pre-training data volume and 5% of its pre-training compute. Dargana is fine-tuned to generate regularly updated classification of tree canopy cover at 10m resolution, distinguishing conifer and broadleaved tree types. Using Cornwall, UK, as a test case, the model achieves a pixel-level ROC-AUC of 0.98 and a PR-AUC of 0.83 on unseen satellite imagery. Dargana can identify fine structures like hedgerows and coppice below the training sample limit, and can track temporal changes to canopy cover such as new woodland establishment. Our results demonstrate how pre-trained Large Observation Models like EarthPT can be specialised for granular, dynamic land cover monitoring from space, providing a valuable, scalable tool for natural capital management and conservation.

Michael J. Smith, James E. Geach, Ryan A. Jackson et al.

We show that a Denoising Diffusion Probabalistic Model (DDPM), a class of score-based generative model, can be used to produce realistic mock images that mimic observations of galaxies. Our method is tested with Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) grz imaging of galaxies from the Photometry and Rotation curve OBservations from Extragalactic Surveys (PROBES) sample and galaxies selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Subjectively, the generated galaxies are highly realistic when compared with samples from the real dataset. We quantify the similarity by borrowing from the deep generative learning literature, using the `Fréchet Inception Distance' to test for subjective and morphological similarity. We also introduce the `Synthetic Galaxy Distance' metric to compare the emergent physical properties (such as total magnitude, colour and half light radius) of a ground truth parent and synthesised child dataset. We argue that the DDPM approach produces sharper and more realistic images than other generative methods such as Adversarial Networks (with the downside of more costly inference), and could be used to produce large samples of synthetic observations tailored to a specific imaging survey. We demonstrate two potential uses of the DDPM: (1) accurate in-painting of occluded data, such as satellite trails, and (2) domain transfer, where new input images can be processed to mimic the properties of the DDPM training set. Here we `DESI-fy' cartoon images as a proof of concept for domain transfer. Finally, we suggest potential applications for score-based approaches that could motivate further research on this topic within the astronomical community.